Yet Another OOTP6 Dynasty: The Pale Hose

[cknox0723]

I'm a Baseball Mogul vet, so it's only natural that for my first OOTP dynasty I do what I did so many times with BBM. After getting the 6.01 patch, I simulated until I found a team craptastic enough for me to want to try to turn around. It's October the 4th of '05, and I've found just the club - the Chicago White Sox. But aren't the Sox pretty darned good in real life? After all, they've been over .500 the last few years...they've got a good shot at the division this year, too. What could have possibly happened? I guess we shall see...

Craig

[NYM Fan 31]

LOL. interested....

[cknox0723]

Why...can't I print the screen? I wanted a nice little photo of the AL Central standings here, but my computer has apparently decided to do its own little thing. No worries, though, as I'm sure my writing is more than enough comeupennce.

In any case, Minnesota came out on top of the division this year, with 91 wins. Cleveland finished second, 3 games out, and the Tigers are safely nestled in third, with a rather unsightly looking 78 wins. Kansas City actually managed to finish with 61 wins to our 62, so we aren't in last. It's cold comfort being -- by far -- the worst fourth place team in the league. Especially since we'd probably be the worst fifth place team in the league, too.

Time to focus in on the team, starting with the pitching.

Mark Buerhle is an ace. Of course, his contract is coming to an end after this next year (remember, we're heading into an offseason here), my first with the team. The man seems to have been a bit lucky in terms of the BABIP over the past two years, with low hits numbers, so a decline from his stellar 16-9, 2.84 ledger can be reasonably expected. But his control is impeccable (cripes! 1.5 BB/9!) and he keeps the ball in the park. It's a testament to complete and utter luck that he happened to sign a contract extension after his worst year (2003 - given to him this offseason, IIRC). But he'll get a nice bump from his $4.2 million salary next year - and somehow I see some other team giving it to him.

Esteban Loaiza makes over $6 million. He's put up two consecutive 3.66 ERA's, but has masked a whole truckload of unearned runs both times. And again, his H/IP ratio is consistently low. Might we have a good defense? Somehow, I doubt it. Anyhow, in an ideal world, I'd move Loaiza's salary to the Mets or someone, and get a solid middle infield prospect who will take a walk. But that just ain't gonna happen, so Loaiza and his newfangled cutter that's led to his success on the real and virtual diamonds will stay in the black and white.

Scouts have always loved Jon Garland's sinker. I've seen him pitch a few times myself, and I must say it is a solid pitch - when it's on. When it's not, he's just another poor sap that leaves too many pitches up and gives up five runs an outing. He had a few too many of the latter this year, and (channelling Joe Morgan) didn't know how to win, either. Overall, he went 4-15 (yummy!) with an ERA of 5.56, and gave up an incredible amount of doubles (45), to boot. We (meaning this...my team) may have a good defense - I honestly don't know yet - but no matter how good it is, someone like Garland is S.O.L., because he's eminently hittable. He's also arbitration-eligible, so perhaps I'll cut his ass if I decide to go on a power trip. I wonder how accurate the arby estimates are, for that matter...my scout-finance-guy says he'll get just $340K. Garland made a mill and a half this year, though, so I doubt he'll get that big of a pay cut.

Nate Cornejo, the former DIPS-defier from Motown, has moved on to our club by virtue of unceremoniously being released in August of '04 by the lovable losers from Detroit, despite an ERA under 4 and 8 wins, which probably would have led the team in 2003. Cornejo's ERA jumped up to the low to mid fives for the Socked Ones this year despite peripherals that were basically the same. But his control went from very good (1.6 BB/9 in '04) to average (3.3 BB/9 this year). He's a good data point for DIPS - but no matter what school of pitching you subscribe to, the fact remains that Cornejo is nothing more than a mediocre back of the rotation guy.

I'm a baseball nut, and I'm good with names. But I couldn't tell you who Enemencio Pacheco is. From what I can glean from his stats, there's a reason for this. He had a modicum of success last year, with a 3.99 ERA in 6 starts, but got hammered early and often this year. All his rate stats jumped. Blame on bad luck, a lack of stuff, or whatever you choose, but his so-so combined numbers and uninspiring minor league numbers (ERA near 5 in 34 starts at the AAA level over the last two years) don't bode well for his future. Good. I didn't want to learn his name anyway.

The scouts love 22 year old Kris Honel. This is why Messrs. Beane, DePodesta, and Ricciardi don't trust the scouts. Honel, at 6'5" and 190 pounds, has the "good face" and "projectable frame" and all that, but his ERA this year between AAA and the majors was over 6.50, and last year wasn't much better. Sure, he was young for the levels, but that doesn't excuse complete and utter suckiness. His control is poor, which I would imagine is the root of his problems. If he ever refines it a bit, he could be an asset, but the same can be said of a couple thousand other guys, and at least some of them throw gyroballs or something equally entrancing.

Why the hell is Rick Reed even on the roster? He's 41, and he sure ain't no Clemens or Maddux. Sure, he throws strikes, but we've got plenty of those guys. As they say, Reed definitely won't be on the "next good White Sox team", and you can't flip him for any goodies, so why even bother? Thankfully, he tore a bicep muscle in August, so he'll likely retire. I'm sure Reed's a nice fellow, being a replacement player (read: scab) and all, but I could use the $300K to invest in scouting in Alaska, or something. Got to translate those 20 innings of high school stats somehow.

Felix Diaz was the only other guy to make any starts for our club this year, toeing the rubber six times. I see he went 0-4 in his starts, and I'm about to write him off. But a brief glimmer of hope...I see he posted a 4.19 ERA, and about the same in AAA to boot. Might we have a prospect? No...of course not. Diaz came down with bone chips in his shoulder in early July and missed the final three months of the year. Not only that, but he's rated 'prone' under injuries, and has actually only made 35 starts over the last 2 years. His major league numbers, replete with 5 unearned runs and iffy peripherals, don't scream out success, either - just a random string of OK starts. So much for pitching prospects.

Well, more...not tomorrow, unfortunately, but Saturday, I hope. I'll move on to the minor leagues and eventually, the bullpen. This has turned out to be much more lengthy than I originally expected, but I'm enjoying it, which I suppose is kind of the idea. In the meantime, any comments would be appreciated, and the tip jar's on the counter.

Craig

[cknox0723]

As uninspiring as the top quintile of the starting pitching was, it gets much, much worse as we move down through the system. I didn't expect to have any world-beaters hiding out in the deep recesses of Winston-Salem or Charlotte, but it really tells me something when the aforementioned Kris Honel is the fourth best prospect in the system. Sadly, it isn't really that our scout is an idiot (though he may be), but it's a testament to our lousy player development.

At the top reaches of the farm system, we have little. Our best hope in AAA is 25 year old Neil Cotts, who posted an otherworldly 2.21 ERA at that level in 2004. His performance was not nearly as good this season, and for whatever reason he hasn't sniffed the majors. I wouldn't mind giving him a shot, since his strikeout and hit rates are both strong. His control has me just on the edge of worry, though, and could ultimately lead to his downfall.

Corwin Malone, Todd Deininger, and John Bale don't have a whole lot in common, but they're lumped together because they are or will be minor league veterans who really sucked this year. In particular, Deininger had an ERA over 6.

Jay Marshall is only 22 years old, has above-average control, and has made 47 starts at the AA level over the past two seasons. He's even had some success, with ERA's of 3.55 and 4.11, but his low strikeout rates and tendency to give up bunches of hits don't portend well for his future success.

Jon Rauch is a man-beast. He stands nearly seven feet tall, so for that alone he'll have a spot on my team as long as he wants. He also went 11-3 with a 2.64 ERA for Birmingham this year, but that can be easily explained by his birthdate, listed as 9/27/1978. But check those visas!

Erick Blackburn and Howard Wilson were drafted in the 4th and 5th rounds, respectively, this year. Both posted ERA's in the mid-threes at AA, giving them some sort of status as prospects. Blackburn's peripherals are actually pretty poor - his control isn't great, and he proved hittable, but a 3.76 ERA over 25 starts isn't something to sneeze at. Wilson only made 9 starts for AA Birmingham this year, but posted the same ERA he did in Winston-Salem, 3.61. The scouts don't like the 19 year old, but he struck out nearly a batter an inning while giving up less than a hit per. If he can refine his control just a touch, someone besides me will have to start taking him seriously.

Francis Beech, Armando Deltoro, and John Ratzlaff are all A-ball prospects of one flavor or another, mostly due to their draft status, but they're years off. Beech is the one I consider to have the best shot, if only because he has the best control.

There are others, but no one worth mentioning. And that, incredibly, is all she wrote for the starting pitching. This, of course, signifies just how far I've got to go with this sorry group. I'll look to add a middle-of-the-rotation starter, a couple minor league veterans, and a prospect or two this offseason. It's certainly not as if we couldn't use the help.

Craig

[cknox0723]

We do, of course. No, I'm not being facetious - we really do need relievers. You'll see for yourself...

Damaso Marte racks up a whiff an inning and doesn't give up huge numbers of hits. But our Proven Closer (TM) is also prone to the gopher ball and walks way too many (5.5 per 9 IP). Marte has electric stuff, but he and his 24 losses over the past two years (yikes!) make me yearn for Mo Rivera. Or Ben Rivera. Regardless, Marte and his million dollar salary will be around next year - but in setup, if I can do anything about it.

Thanks to Boss George, the Yankees cut Felix Heredia, just as they will in the "real" majors (any day now, Yankee fans, any day). However, it was in 2005 in this case, despite a solid 2004 from the Dominican lefthander. In one of the few good moves that Kenny Williams and Co. made, Heredia signed a minor league deal on the 3rd of May (a week after he was cut by the Empire), and he promptly turned in a career year - 2.88 ERA, allowed just 8-40 inherited runners to score, 7 holds. I gave it a valiant (OK, not so much) shot to re-sign him, but for some reason, Felix wanted some green. I'd like to keep him around, but he'll probably get an 8-year deal from the Pirates.

Joe Roa parlayed seven wins and, uh, nothing else (4.93 ERA, lots of hits and longballs allowed) into a three year extension that'll earn him around two and a quarter million once it's all said and done. So much for Kenny Williams' Christmas card. By the way, Roa was also working for minimum wage this year. Wouldn't this make one realize that these kind of guys are, well, fungible? Well, figuring out what to do with Mr. Roa is why they pay me the big bucks, right?

The Japanese contingent of our bullpen contains both Shingo Takatsu and Shiggy Hasegawa. They're both ancient, and both likely gone. Takatsu, whose moniker "Mr. Zero" sounds like the name of the villain in a bad foreign film, has had 2 nice years in a row, but threw over 100 innings last year and thirty less this year, which seems like a bad trend. He's put up nice numbers, but he's a good bet to break down soon. Hasegawa is washed up, with an ugly year (7+ ERA) only furthering that assertion. "Stick a fork in 'im, he's done!"

If you're a minor league vet that can't stick with the Rangers (those Rangers, fer Chrissake!), what do you do? If you're Rosman Garcia, you work long relief for the Chicago White Sox, that's what. Garcia did garner his first win this season at the spry young age of 31, but he proved to be too hittable to be anything more than an emergency 12th pitcher. "He ams what he ams."

We have a Dan Reichert sighting, ladies and gentlemen! The former failed Royals prospect showed improved control from his "Wild Dan" days, but still had problems with the gopherball, serving one up every six and a third innings, give or take. And seemingly like everyone else, his opponents' batting average was over .300. Again, so much for our vaunted defense.

Jon Adkins was the only other man to see significant action out of the pen, tossing twenty-six and two-thirds frames, with a respectable 4.39 ERA. Better still, his component ERA was 3.24 and he allowed just one home run. But before we anoint him "Closer of the Future" or whatever other tag 28 year old sort-of prospects get, his AAA numbers over the last two years - a sample almost six times as large - show an ERA well over 5 and a man that is eminently hittable? The test of the utility of minor league statistics in OOTP will rest in one Mr. Adkins, who may very well be in my pen next year, minor league numbers be damned. The scout's not in love with him, but I have my use for "run of the mill relievers" - and they're cheap.

Would you believe that one Billy Koch is in AAA? Well, he stunk it up the first month last year, and apparently "slipped" through waivers. He's been solid in the minors, but he's got Steve Blass Disease, I fear. He's up for arbitration, so I'll probably non-tender him, seeing as he's making over four million greenbacks, and can't get cut more than some percentage lower, if I recall.

There's a cast of thousands filling out the 'pen in Charlotte, and they're all journeymen of the same cloth. In alphabetical order, there's Juan Acevedo, Dave Maurer, Hector Mercado, Brandon Puffer (crying out for a nickname, I might add), and Carl Sadler. They were all reasonably effective this year, but there's not much upside, so I won't regret losing any of them. Unfortunately, Acevedo, the recipient of a three year deal for over $400K per year last offseason, won't be going with them. Sadler will stay as well, and his ~3 ERA in AAA the past two seasons may be enough to give him a shot at some mop-up work for the big club, depending on how things shake out.

How many 5'8" relief pitchers are even marginal prospects? Well, when you're 20 years old and putting up ERA's of 1.53 (!) and 3.32 in AA, I don't give a darn about your height. So Fabio Castro earns the dubious distinction of quite possibly being the best pitching prospect in the organization, despite the fact that the scouts aren't in love with him. But who would be? I mean, he's short, darn it, and short guys just don't make good pitchers!

Fernando Hernandez has dominated A-ball the last two years, giving up well under a hit per inning. He's also had some control problems, so you'll excuse me if I root more for Blanco. Of course, this may change if I find that Hernandez is actually named Jose Rojas and is 23 years old, not 21. I really wouldn't mind that, since it's quite the pain to type a name containing 17 letters.

That's about it for the relievers in the system - there are, of course, other names, but no one particularly inspiring. I suppose I should mention Ryan Meaux, as he's 9-2 with a sub-3 ERA over the past two years at AA Birmingham, with good peripherals to boot. But the man is 26, and my scout thinks he should be flipping burgers or something, so excuse me for almost ignoring him.

The pitching in my team's system just shows how important the "average" player is. Most statheadzz, in my experience, tend to underestimate the Hillenbrands and Trachsels of the world, but add a couple of those guys to this team, and you might have something resembling a major league squad. Then again, I'm probably giving this lot too much credit.

Craig

[cknox0723]

Wow...this has got to be someone's idea of a really, really bad practical joke.

The only four catchers in my system are, in alphabetical order:

A.J. Hinch, Robert Machado, Miguel Olivo, and Mike Rivera.

Hinch hit .231. In AAA. He's 31 years old. Great.

Machado has a stat line that will give me nightmares. His batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage, respectively, are .176/.195/.244. Best of all - he'll earn $410,400 next year. I can't begin to express just how unfathomable this is.

Miguel Olivo hit .261 this year, stole 10 bases, and smacked 7 homers. He's got a nice arm, too, throwing out 30% of opposing baserunners. But he also managed an OBP of .295 and an OPS of just .587 against right-handed pitching. I'm all for secondary skills, but I refuse to let Olivo be anything more than the backup and lefty-mashing catcher next year, because his supposed offense against right-handed pitching would be, well, offensive. By the way, he was 27 this year. That's the peak year for most players, so Mr. Olivo, who's a career .234 hitter, could decline precipitously next year. Almost all of his damage was done against left-handed pitching, so if he regresses there, it could be a very sharp decline.

Mike Rivera hit .254 this year. In AAA. He's 29, and only popped five home runs. Makes me yearn for Mr. Hinch.

I think we need a catcher.

Craig

[cknox0723]

You'll understand in just a few seconds why this is important, but I wanted to throw in my league settings real quickly. I've turned off the DH, made the league slightly more favorable toward pitchers, and, of course, turned off all ratings and stars, which finally explains my enigmatic, mysteriously vague posts.

The reason that the lack of a designated hitter is important is because it's banished Paul Konerko to the bench in deference to the greatest Pale Hoseman of them all, Frank Thomas. "The Big Hurt" received a 3-year extension totalling over $12 million after socking 46 home runs last year, a deal that will likely allow him to retire in the black and white. I'll chalk this up as a plus for good ol' Kenny W., as it saves me from having to cut the esteemable Thomas - with his salary, it's kind of out of the question. He predictably slowed this year, still pasting left-handers for a home run every 9 or so at-bats, but hitting just .239 with moderate power against right-handers. It'll be really tough to platoon him, though, even if OOTP only knows numbers. I've got a tear in my eye just thinking about the virtual Thomas. Paul Konerko, on the other hand, just makes me want to yak. He's devolved into a lefty-masher making nearly $6 million a year. Luckily, his contract expires, so I won't have to deal with a guy that gives our club almost no value. He could be an asset somewhere, but it ain't gonna be here.

I'll talk about Dave Hansen here because I won't want to later. Hansen is a first baseman in name only, but remarkably, he's also a major leaguer in name only. He's one of those guys who's kicked out for a bunch of years without doing much, you know? He's still a disciplined hitter, but has no power, no position, and would have to hit .300 or so to have value as a pinch hitter. That ain't gonna happen, though. Of course, he received a one year extension at $440,000, but that may just be a tidy little severance package, if I have any say in it.

Jeff Liefer can hit the long ball (53 big flies over the last two years), but he's 31, and it's been in second-rate towns in the midwest and deep south, and much as I dislike Kansas City, that's not what I'm referring to.

Craig

[cknox0723]

Well, they're sacking something, that's for sure.

Juan Uribe has tenure despite being just 26 years old, since he's started the last two years. But tenure doesn't mean much to me unless you're Frank Effing Thomas or, more appropriately, get on-base at higher than a .300 clip, which Uribe doesn't. Other than that, he's a decent little player, but that's a rather large flaw, and he doesn't have a wide enough skill set to make up for it.

Willie Harris just doesn't hit enough - his stats are only decent in AAA, and he's flopped in every major league trial.

Our prospects are, relatively speaking, bright merely because of the prospects at this position, of which there are many. None of three players look like future stars, but Antoin Gray, Pedro Lopez, and Ruddy Yan all look like they will have their uses - which makes them Top 10 prospects in our system. Gray, 24, displays the most power of the three and is closest to the majors as well, having batted over .300 at AA Birmingham the last two seasons. 21 year old Lopez is fantastic defensively, speedy on the basepaths, and even has showed some plate patience. If he had power, he'd almost be a 5-tool player, but even as it is, he's not without a future. Yan is a bit of a longshot, seeing as he is 24 years old without any experience above A-ball. But he also stole 48 bases this season and got on-base at nearly a .400 clip for Winston-Salem. He could be a nice Rule 5 pick for some team needing a backup middle infielder.

With all that said - we still need a second baseman.

Craig

[cknox0723]

I find that I constantly am checking the disabled list and the minor leagues for some halfway decent player that just isn't there.

Julio Lugo can crack double-digit home runs and is well-regarded defensively, but most of his value lies in his batting average. If he hits .288 like he did in 2004, he might just be an above-average shortstop. He hit .249 this year, though, and I wouldn't be surprised if this was closer to his actual talent level. Like most other guys on this team, it seems Lugo is going to hack away. Guys like that can quickly get in my doghouse, but having someone who couldn't field would annoy me more.

Shane Halter, who nicknamed himself "Shane-Rod" back in the day (or maybe I did that. In any case, it's become a pretty hilarious inside joke.), is a far cry from his, uh, peak. He's now a banjo-hitting shortstop who can't really field much either.

Andy Gonzalez and Rob Valido barely pass for organizational depth, since neither one of 'em can hit. At least they're good glove men, though.

I'd like to upgrade this position, too (sense a trend?), but I could live with Uribe. Well, if I had to. We do need someone else that can play the position, though.

Craig

[pat]

nice read..

[cknox0723]

Thanks for commenting, Pat. I've really enjoyed writing this up (and I haven't even done anything yet. Imagine how long it will get if I, say, sign someone!). If there's anything you (or anyone else) would like to see, just let me now and I'd be happy to oblige.

Joe Crede, for whatever reason, slumped miserably in 2004 - he hit a career high 24 home runs, but hit a miserable .219. He rebounded almost completely this year, reverting back into the league average third sacker with some pop in his bat. It disturbs me that he's yet another guy who can hit .260 and get on-base at under a .300 clip (.263 average, but a .296 on-base percentage thanks to all of 18 free passes in over 450 at-bats), but guys who can knock 23 home runs don't grow on trees. Because Crede was so awful last year, he shouldn't get millions in arbitration, so we'll keep him around. It could be worse - our starting third baseman could be...well...

Enrique Wilson. Now, the man is one of my favorite players in the major leagues, and I'm completely serious. I'm a Yankee fan because of location, and Wilson just carries that sort of aura that attracts flies to stink, or something. With that said, even as Wilson hit .262 with 4 homers in all of 100 at-bats off the bench, he's still nothing more than a utility man. But gosh darn it, he's my utility man!

Lou Collier, the former bust with the Pirates, hit in the .240 range in AAA. Why do we have so many of these guys?

Ed Ashbaugh, a seventh round draftee in this year's draft, socked 15 home runs in A-ball and the scouts like 'em. But he showed atrocious plate discipline and hit .243. In the words of Bill James, "Pass."

Craig

[cknox0723]

I'm of no mind to separate the outfielders like some sort of segregationalist, so they'll all be here. OK, so I'm kind of going to break them up, but this is all abstract anyway.

Someone that can hit on this team is like a needle in a haystack. Carlos Lee just pricked my finger, then. An OPS over 1000 is just astounding, especially since it was...hey, what's this? Only 286 at-bats? Well, he must have been hurt, right? Let me check the...no, the man was healthy as a horse this year. Well, he hit a home run every 12 or so at-bats, so he would have hit about 50 over the course of the year. He doesn't know that, though, so let's try to sign him on the cheap. What's that you say, Mr. Lee?

"I want to test the market because I am unhappy with my playing time."

Oh. Way to go, Ozzie.

Well, at least we still have Jeremy Reed, who's not the monster prospect he is in real life (hit .400 at AA last year), but isn't too bad nonetheless. He hit .299 in the majors this year with 13 home runs. The plate discipline, the one tool I would have counted on him to have, wasn't there, but he's solid most everywhere else. He's a plus defender to boot. I can't say Reed is a sure bet - he struggled at three different levels in 2004, and the scouts aren't enamored with him, calling him a "sleeper", but I wouldn't be worried if he was the Opening Day leftfielder in 2006.

Magglio Ordonez got off to his typical start this April - a .300 average with 6 home runs. But he slid downhill each month afterward, until being diagnosed with a broken wrist in mid-August which prematurely ended his season. I'll chalk this year up to a lost season and look at 2004's season, which contained both 100 runs scored and batted in and a slugging percentage over .600, as more indicative of his future prognosis. I'll have to hope so, because Ordonez is owed nearly forty million over the next four years. (Yikes!)

Mike Hessman won a Gold Glove in 2004 with the Braves. By June of this year, he had been cut and signed a deal with us. What changed? Nothing really - Hessman negated all of the help his defense provided by merely swinging the mighty lumber - "hitting" to the tune of a .578 OPS in '04. Inexplicably, he hit .296 this year, but still showed little power and atrocious plate discipline. Now that I actually look at it, his fielding was pretty atrocious last year - 16 errors in the outfield. But I'm looking for an alternative candidate - and it seems everyone was hurt (Abreu, Sosa) or playing another outfield position (Giles, Kearns). I'm intigued (Raffy Palmeiro anyone?) and will keep looking for additional information. The real good news is that now I can axe Hessman without much ado about it.

Aaron Rowand and Joe Borchard are similar players - centerfielders with some defensive ability and some power. They both hit under .240 this year, struck out too much, and walked too little, but Borchard in particular shows intriguing potential. He'll enter his age 27 season next year, and has 33 home runs in 620 career at-bats. If it weren't for that, I'd probably look for a replacement - but between that and his 1075 OPS in AAA in 2004, it'll be Borchard's job to lose. Rowand, on the other hand, facing arbitration again after earning nearly a cool million this year, will be looking for a job.

Seeing as he's 29 years old, you'd expect Colin Porter to at least be a minor league masher, right? Not so - he hit .212 in AAA this year, and a mighty .195 in AA the previous year. Well, then he's got to be a take-and-rake kind of guy, right? Nah - his slugging hasn't cleared .300 the last two years. Before you ask - no, he doesn't walk, steal bases, or play good defense. If he was on the 40-man roster, I might have legitimately committed homicide. As it is, I'm befuddled.

Clint King is purported to be a prospect, and he is young and has put up decent numbers in AAA, but the OPS was only 721 and he stuck out 129 times while walking just 33. Really, how many of these guys are there, and how high of a ceiling can they really have?

Brian Anderson is yet another tools guy, but at least he's socked some doubles (26 this year). He's also solid defensively, unlike King. But I'm a guy who's a big believer in the walk, so Anderson will probably be trade fodder. Since his numbers don't scream out star anyway, he'll probably just be fodder. Whatever that is.

Michael "Lucky" Houchins (who, I imagine, is from Vegas) is the top prospect in the system - a first round pick last year and all of that. He put up a solid line of .273/.375/.404 in A-ball this year, and added 30 steals as well. But he is 23, and somehow I just don't see his supposed vast potential. He's an excellent outfielder, too, by the way. But all in all, a top-5 centerfielder, maybe, if the power matures, but otherwise an OK leadoff hitter. Excuse me if I don't do cartwheels.

Ryan Sweeney hit .282 in A-ball this year, but has nothing aside from that. He's just 20, so there's time, but some -- any -- development would be nice. A little power, or a walk more often than once a month. Another scouts guy. These guys are idiots.

Chris Young and Ricardo Nanita are minor prospects - Young for his power, Nanita for his...leadership ability or something, but neither seem like much. Which doesn't surprise me, of course.

Is that really it? I keep waiting for something more...general thoughts to come, and then I'll finally, like, do something.

Craig

[And1pg2]

This is really a great read.

[cknox0723]

And1pg2, thanks very much for the compliment! I'm glad some people have enjoyed my dynasty so far - I hope I'll be able to keep things this interesting when I actually start wheeling and dealing. That sort of applies here - I made my first actual transaction, at least - so let me know what y'all think.

We spent nearly a million bucks a win this year - just a hair over $59 million for player expenses and 62 wins even. If there's one thing I'm sure of, that ratio will come down under my watch.

And I notice that it'll have to - because as of the moment, we've got $0 to sign free agents. Hopefully, I can change that - I plan on slashing payroll anyway - because we'll otherwise be reduced to trading during this offseason. I'm not going to be extravagant about trading - with all the effort I've put into this, I plan on keeping this dynasty realistic - but I will make moves. A vague idea of what I plan to do, at least with the upcoming free agents:

Paul Konerko and Carlos Lee are both gone, for reasons which I've already outlined. I'll get Lee back in free agency if it's possible, but I doubt that actually happens.

Billy Koch, who's actually arbitration-eligible, will get the boot. Perhaps an NRI is in his future after every other team fails to give him anything? That's $13 million plus freed up between those three guys, by the way. Maybe this won't be as tough as I thought.

The other impending free agents are all going off to greener, uh, pastures, now that I think about it. I've just got no desire to keep Shingo Takatsu, Shiggy Hasegawa, A.J. Hinch, Rick Reed...what's that? Enrique Wilson will be a free agent? Can't have that, he's my token crappy utility infielder. So I give the extension process a shot, but I then realize that my first move as GM of this club is about to be giving Enrique Wilson a contract extension. So much for that.

I decide, though, to give Takatsu a second look. His component ERA's have been under 4 the last few years, and I'm still not positive just how much cash we'll have to allocate to mediocre relievers. So I toss some numbers at him, he says something in Japanese ("Where the hell's my agent?"), and finally I sucker him into a one year extension worth $700,000 - the same amount he earned this year. These are the kind of moves that get you a championship, I know. But at least Mr. Zero will return once again!

Felix Heredia, fresh off a career year, is not the type of guy I target. DIPS will probably make his ERA do some dipping of its own next year, and Heredia is apparently looking for the big bucks, so off he goes.

The not-yet-discussed warm bodies that will be leaving (at least supposedly) include Lou Collier, Colin Porter, Brandon Puffer, and Ben Diggins. The unknown question is, of course, whether or not the door that they slam on the way out will even make a sound.

The rest of these guys are arbitration-eligible. Julio Lugo is by far the most important, and not coincidentally, he's also expensive - the estimate is for nearly $1.5 million. It's tempting to non-tender (read: cut) him and save the cash, but I doubt we'll find anything better. Diddling through the free agent list, I see that Edgar Renteria might be available - but we'll stick with the hacktastic Lugo and upgrade more efficiently at other positions.

Jon Garland isn't much, but he's not going to be terribly expensive either, so he can stay. The same goes for Juan Uribe, Joe Crede, and Nate Cornejo. I don't want these guys to play key roles - but it is, in fact, necessary to have some capable guys that are a little above replacement level. Rome wasn't built in a day, after all.

Aaron Rowand, on the other hand, is too expensive for my tastes - Joe Borchard could do his job and then some, and he'd be cheaper to boot. So despite his fielding prowess (no errors over the last two years), Rowand will be non-tendered.

Finally, we're really getting to the guys that I can axe. Dan Reichert was decent this year, but he is the very definition of a replacement-level pitcher and he'd probably get more than the minimum. So he can join the likes of Willie Harris, Jeff Liefer, and Mike Rivera, who just take up roster space.

Miguel Olivo is an interesting quandary, but he wouldn't be a bad backup catcher. I really don't want him to start (ever), but if we cut him, we'll be down to having the sucking mass that is Robert Machado as the only catcher in our system. The mere thought of that frightens me.

So we do our deeds, saving ourselves some change in the process, and zip through the playoffs, where - wouldn't you know it? - the Red Sox win the World Series. Over the Cubs, no less. Those Cubs. Not that we've got any pressure on us, or anything.

Craig

[cknox0723]

Well, I pressed the button. Not the blue one - the "Proceed to Next Season" one.

Of the poor souls that returned, I got about what I expected. What the heck am I talking about? The arbitration awards, of course:

Julio Lugo got two and a quarter million, but who the heck else was I going to get to play short? That's a rhetorical question, by the way. This does, however, show me that I ought to follow my instinct more often than my scout's estimate of the arby amounts.

Jon Garland got $1.6 million, or thereabouts, which is more than I would've guesstimated. It could be worse - we could still have Rick Reed, who retired. Good for him (Reed, not Garland).

Joe Crede, Juan Uribe, Nate Cornejo, and Miguel Olivo all received awards under a million bucks, and none are too outrageous, with the possible exception of The Out Sucking Machine (Yes, that's Uribe.), who got $550,000. I guess it's a bad sign that I'm complaining about a guy who's barely getting more than the minimum. But folks, he is that bad.

The payroll sits just above $40 million, which gives us...

$8 million or so to sign a pitching coach, a manager for our team in AAA Charlotte, and a whole heck of a lot of talent. We sorely need it.

Craig

[Fool Inc.]

Good read, I hope you lose all of your games. (Sorry I have to say this, I'm a Tiger's fan. ^_~)

Seriously good luck to you.

[cknox0723]

I've got a little wrinkle that I throw into my coach signings that I should add here. I feel it's too easy to sign coaches to whatever contracts you want, essentially, so I give them what they ask for, both in terms of years and dollars. If I want to give them a shorter or longer deal, then I've got to give them $100,000 more per each year of difference. I'm not quite sure why I do it this way - but why not?

Anyway, the new additions to our coaching staff are Jamison Bryan and Ty Arisman - both pitching coaches. But Arisman will convert to managing (much like, uh, someone. But who?), which amuses me, for some reason. I figured he'd work well with whatever crappy pitchers we drudge up. Bryan, who really should reverse his names ('Bryan Jamison'), is young. He's really got potential to be a veteran leader someday. "It's a good day to work, boys! Good day to work!"

With that taken care of, I take one last gander at the rosters before preparing for the impending catastrophe that free agency will surely be. At this point, I decide to toss out all the dead wood - so John Bale, Todd Deininger, Corwin Malone, Roberto Novoa, Brandon Puffer, and Colin Porter all get their walking papers. They're all minor league pitchers of little note, except for Porter, who's bad enough that he may as well be a minor league pitcher of little note. Maggs Ordonez and Jeremy Reed were also put back on the active roster; they had been on the DL. In Reed's case, it was a minor injury. For Ordonez, it was just a tiny little broken wrist - a wrist that, if not fully healed, may hurt any chance we have at contending...oh, for the next four years or so.

Some roster shenanigans now - dispatched Kris Honel (also known as exhibit #1 for "why scouts are evil") to AA Birmingham, since he's had no success at any higher level. Since we've got exactly five starting pitchers at every level, and symmetry is at least something to shoot for, I decide to cut 19-year old Ricky Coppin's ass. A 9th round pick last year, Coppin inexplicably spent much of the year in the high minors, where his ERA was close to 7 and his WHIP was over 2 (!). I, of course, can use the statistics to my advantage, ignoring everything that can be used in his favor (namely his age and lack of experience) and let it explode right in his face. Sorry, Ricky, corporate life can be hell sometimes!

Outfielder Clint King doesn't exactly strike my fancy, either, so the 23 year old will languish in AAA Charlotte for the year. Good thing he has options! This leaves us with 6 open spots on the active roster, and after adding prospects Fernando Hernandez (Long_Long_Name, could I use your name as F.H.'s nickname?) and Fabio Castro (also known as Super Relief Prospects A and B) and middling reliever Carl Sadler to the 40-man, 6 spots on that as well. Hmmm...looks like we'll be cutting some folks.

But for now, that'll be all. I hope to get some time to make a little noise in free agency in the next few days, but regardless, it'll be here eventually. Any comments are welcome.

Craig

[cknox0723]

Fool Inc., thanks for the comment. I'm honored that your first post was about my dynasty. Your Tigers are a solid bunch, and could well challenge for the AL Central crown this year (Nice start in the real majors as well!) - led by the likes of Rich Harden, The Rocket, and Pudge. If they get a solid bat to play left, they could make a run.

Anyhow...

Since we took care of the coach signings right away, I had some time to peruse; so, being the free-wheeling team we are, I check the waiver wire.

Not surprisingly, there are some names to be had. Also not surprisingly, they're the kind of names that evoke memories of the infamous Shiggy Hasegawa and Mike Hessman.

But amidst the schlock that is Wilkin Ruan, Trey Hodges, Kyle Snyder, and Jason Tyner (Hoo boy - that's Mr. Steroids to you. 5 home runs in the minors in 2004!), I find a couple hidden, uh, gems. Well, not really, but they have their uses. Three days later, I find that I got both of the guys I claimed. The new Pale Hosemen are a couple of relievers:

Brian Sweeney was around replacement-level last year, bouncing around between the Padres, Royals, and Reds. My scout, Quent Moore, calls him a "solid if unspectacular reliever". His 5.47 ERA and mediocre at best peripherals seem to fly in the face of that, but he notched a 3.03 ERA in AAA the previous year, so I reckon he's worth the flyer.

Kiko Calero is the man who I'm really pleased to add, though. Not only does he have a superfluous name, but he's put up some nice strikeout rates as well. In my opinion, he's an injury risk (Although the injury rating is 'normal' - blame his violent delivery.), but if he's healthy, he appears to be one of those guys that can have a year with a sub-3.00 ERA (a la Felix Heredia last year) and really set themselves up. Sweeney may be nothing more than fungible talent, but I think Calero is one of those 31 year old prospects. Before you ask what I'm talking about, rest assured that I'm not entirely sure what I'm talking about either.

Both are now on the 40-man roster and, for now, in the major leagues. Impressive, huh? Nah, it just speaks volumes about the dreck that's already in our 'pen.

Craig

[cknox0723]

So much for that little free agency plan. It's all but in the toilet immediately, as I quickly realize that the available, talented players don't exactly mesh with our needs.

Shawn Green. Jose Guillen. Jacque Jones. Preston Wilson. Sean Casey.

Notice something? All first basemen and outfielders. And many of the other top-tier guys, especially the pitchers, don't want to come anywhere near us.

"I want to play for a winner, not Chicago (A)."

So say Jason Schmidt, Tim Hudson, Paul Byrd, Jeff Suppan...

I haven't even touched on the guys that just plain old don't like us - A.J. Burnett, Tomo Ohka, Preston Wilson, Randy Winn...by the way, since when does Randy Winn (When? Winn? Get it? It's a pun!) get his choice of teams?

So, uh, we're kind of up a creek here. But fear not - there's still some folks available for the taking. Case in point - the catchers. There's, uh, well...Mike Lieberthal (He's expensive, though. And old. Pass.), Mike Piazza (What was that? We'll allow 400 stolen bases? Ack.), Ramon Castro, and, uh, Bobby Estalella. And Brad Ausmus. Ausmus may be clutch, but he hits like a little girl most of the time. Uh, all that's left now (quite literally) is A.J. Hinch, and that ain't gonna fly, so I suppose I'll speak to Mr. Piazza. He can hit (817 OPS), at least, even if he's 37. I'll probably regret it by the trade deadline, but our first offer is a one year deal worth a cool million to the man, the legend, the Italian Stallion Piazza.

I guess I'm going position by position now. We don't really need a first baseman, but I see that the darling of the OOTP boards is available - one Ross Gload. Actually, the numbnuts previously running the show here waived him at some point last year, and he ended up in Atlanta, who eventually tossed him to the curb as well. I offer The Man a one year deal at the minimum. He's a proven Ken Phelps All-Star, so why not? Might get me some loyal readers, too.

There's a ridiculous lack of talent in the rest of the middle infield, so much so that Super Joe McEwing can spurn me in the hope of playing for a winning team. Ha. That's actually pretty funny. I give my boy Enrique Wilson the two year, minimum wage offer that he apparently so desires. But I'm still not satisfied, and I really don't want to have to deal with the crappy double-play combo of The Out-Sucking Machine and The Violently Hacktastic One. So I toss Edgar Renteria a three year offer worth a total of four and a half million. There's no way he'll accept - he's still the same shortstop that we all know and love, just two years older - but it's a starting point, at least.

Lance Berkman, much like Magpipes Ordonez, won the MVP in 2004, and stunk up the joint and got hurt last year. In fact - hey! A broken wrist! Eerie...I like the idea of weird parallel circumstances, and Berkman can rake (and walk!), so I offer him a three year deal worth $6 million, all told. I also give Chin-Feng Chen a minor league contract offer, mostly to appeal to the burgeoning Taiwanese market in Chi-town.

Would you believe I've got more? We haven't even talked about the pitchers yet...and it's still Day 1 of free agency. I told you I'd make moves...

Craig

[cknox0723]

However, I don't have quite as much here. Our lineup is awful - we finished in the bottom three in the majors in almost every hitting category sauf home runs. We're the Billy Beane model of offense right now, without all the things that the man who wrote Moneyball (wink wink) actually considers important!

Anyway, we've got a few solid starting pitchers - but we always could use some more. Unfortunately, 'solid' seems to be a rather fleeting, unreachable goal to shoot for. No pitcher with any breadth of talent (read: Hudson, Ohka, Schmidt, Suppan, Byrd, and Burnett) wants to even consider us, and I'm not spending millions on Tony Armas, Odalis Perez, or Freddy Garcia. So I toss a small contract offer to Jason Johnson - three years and $450,000 per year. The Diabetic One, age 32, never lived up to that big (?) free agent contract that Detroit gave him this offseason (real offseason, that is). He was actually decent the first year, but a league-average or so (after Comerica is factored out) ERA of 4.19 was obscured by a miserable 5-12 ledger. He was waived early in this past season, picked up by the Rockies, and then released. Nice. But I'll take my bargains where I can get 'em - if I can get 'em.

I also toss a couple minor league contract offers out there to two pitchers that are polar opposites, for the most part. 34 year old Garrett Stephenson had a decent little career derailed by injuries, and spent almost all of last year in the minors. I wouldn't be too displeased with him as my fifth starter, though. 24 year old Kyle Sleeth, a Wake Forest alumnus and former top-5 draft pick by -- wait for it -- the Tigers, was cut at the end of last year. He's not an earth-shaking prospect by any means, but has 25 wins over the past two years at AA Erie and AAA Toledo. The ERA's aren't as shiny, but wins are the only thing that matters, right? Right.

And this brings us to perhaps our biggest weakness (especially with Mr. Heredia's departure) - the bullpen. I immediately spot Octavio Dotel on the market, and can't right-click his name fast enough. But I notice he was diagnosed with bone chips in his shoulder last July. Oh. So you're saying he was pitching with half an arm? An injury that, of course, could be one of those recurring injuries. But I still can't resist (Bargains, right? Got to get be efficient with the almighty dollar any way possible, and who's going to want a guy with a bum wing?) offering him a three year deal worth a million bucks a year. Again, he's a longshot at best to agree to that, but it can't hurt to try.

We're about out of cash, so I give fungible middle reliever Brandon Villafuerte a minor league contract offer. He's bounced between four or five teams in the past few years, and was out of the league for almost all of last season, but posted a 4.19 ERA in 2004 with decent enough peripherals. Looks like a nice little sleeper to me.

And that is that, not out of choice, but necessity. As you can sort of tell, I'm not one to target only a few guys - my mantra is quantity over quality. I'm not even sure how much quantity we can get in this case, but if we can get a few of the key players (namely Berkman, Dotel, and, of all people, Jason Johnson), I think we could make a run for .500 this year. Of course, Jackson, Cicotte, and Weaver could probably help us with that, too. However, I don't think Mouthpiece Bud would approve.

Craig