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-   -   Lottery Odds Rigged (http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/board/showthread.php?t=284270)

Empty 01-14-2018 04:43 AM

Lottery Odds Rigged
 
I'm 6 seasons into my current play through and in every single season the lottery winners have never been the last or second last place teams, they always end up picking 4th and 5th. I noticed that something was off so I checked the league history to confirm and also tested it out by saving on July 21 and simming ahead one day to run the lottery and every time the bottom two teams picked 4th and 5th. I did expand to 32 teams so I'd assume that it would have something to do with it.

Adam B 01-14-2018 02:08 PM

But did the top 3 teams change every time? Because only the top 3 spots are lottery. If the team with the lowest point total doesn't win, they can't drop lower than 4th.

Empty 01-14-2018 02:23 PM

Yes, that's what is happening. Last and 2nd last have 0% chance of winning a pick and end up 4th and 5th every time. The top 3 teams are different every time.

Adam B 01-14-2018 02:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Empty (Post 4268123)
Yes, that's what is happening. Last and 2nd last have 0% chance of winning a pick and end up 4th and 5th every time. The top 3 teams are different every time.

...But that's not rigged. That's some just like some bad luck. Rigged would be the last place team gets the 1st overall pick every time.

If you look at the NHL over the last number of years, rarely has the team with the highest odds gotten a lottery pick. The only one off the top of my head is the Leafs with Matthews. Otherwise it's a mix every time. 18 teams have a chance at the top 3 spots, otherwise the spots are predetermined. No one can fall more than the 3 spots. If the last place team ended up with the 7th pick, then there's an issue. If the last place team won every time, that'd be an issue.

I don't think this is an issue. It's just a luck of the spin/draw.

Empty 01-14-2018 03:48 PM

I've played 6 seasons and not once did one of the top 2 teams win any pick. I reran the lottery for last season's draft 15+ times and got the same result. The odds of both teams not winning any pick in that many lotteries is extremely low, so I doubt that it's just terrible luck.

Adam B 01-14-2018 05:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Empty (Post 4268142)
I've played 6 seasons and not once did one of the top 2 teams win any pick. I reran the lottery for last season's draft 15+ times and got the same result. The odds of both teams not winning any pick in that many lotteries is extremely low, so I doubt that it's just terrible luck.

It's not that low. I mean, the lowest total point team is only at 18% chance of winning. I think 2nd is something around 13%. Regardless, last place has a near 50% chance of moving all the way down to 4th.

However it's quite possible that something isn't working right if you've ran it that many times. We'll make sure to look into it.

Edit:
(For anyone else interested on approximate lottery odds, here's a few years old article - but I'm 95% sure the odds haven't changed - https://www.nhl.com/flames/news/nhl-...-odds/c-879417 )

Knoeppel 01-15-2018 10:28 AM

I played a save with Vegas and finished dead last in the leauge..

I reloaded the save aproximatley 10 times and never ever i got the top 3 pick....

I finally got the first pick when another team won the lottery. ( I had traded for that teams number one pick)

At the time my idea whas that something was wrong with Vegas, as they were an expansionteam and maybe wasn´t caculated in to the lottery.

Anyway i swiched over to my Sharks after some time and forgot about the "bug". But now reading this tread i came back to me.

Kinsella19 01-15-2018 08:24 PM

I always feel like its borderline IMPOSSIBLE to win the lottery in this game, almost as if it's rigged against the user controlled team. I can't even count the amount of times I've tanked and then ended up with the 4th overall pick. I understand the odds are only 1 in 5 that you're supposed to get the first pick, but I shouldn't be falling to 4th every single time.

If possible in an update or future edition of the game I think there should be an option to turn off the lottery and have the draft order be the reverse standings.

JeffR 01-16-2018 01:16 AM

It does look like something's not right here. We're checking it now.


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