Official Rolen/Cubby Player Rating Question Thread

[CubbyFan23]

Here's the player info I was missing from Washington. If you find scouting reports for any of these players, please share!

GUIDE:
(s) = no scouting report
(p) = no PECOTA rating
(b) = both

WASHINGTON NATIONALS
MLB
RP Jay Bergmann (s)

AAA
SP Kyle Denney (s)
SP Andrew Good (s)
SP Michael O'Connor (p)
SP Billy Traber (b)
SP Steve Watkins (b)
RP Micah Bowie (b)
RP Roy Corcoran (b)
RP Travis Hughes (s)
RP Santiago Ramirez (b)
CA Brandon Harper (b)
2B Bernie Castro (s)
3B Brandon Larson (p)
SS Josh Labandeira
CF Kenny Kelly (b)
RF Mike Vento (b)

[tehwholeworld]

Originally Posted by CubbyFan23

WASHINGTON NATIONALS
MLB
RP Jay Bergmann (s)

Not sure how helpful this is, but its worth posting probably.

9. BERGMANN, JAY - TR - b: 9/25/81
Scouting Report:
A star at Rutgers, Bergmann gave his career a leap forward when he
converted from starter to reliever in 2004. Bergmann has a full repertoire
with a fastball, slider, curve and change. Working in short relief stints he
can concentrate on placement of the fastball, which has low to mid 90's
velocity. He does best when he gives up a little velocity for better location,
with the slider as well as the fastball. Bergmann has also developed a cutter,
and he is refining his change. He got promoted to the majors after working to
a 1.22 ERA at Double-A Harrisburg and a 3.16 ERA at Triple-A New Orleans.

http://www.johnbenson.com/101.html

[Waninski]

Originally Posted by CubbyFan23

Here's the player info I was missing from Washington. If you find scouting reports for any of these players, please share!

GUIDE:
(s) = no scouting report
(p) = no PECOTA rating
(b) = both


WASHINGTON NATIONALS
MLB
RP Jay Bergmann (s)

AAA
SP Kyle Denney (s)
SP Andrew Good (s)
SP Michael O'Connor (p)
SP Billy Traber (b)
SP Steve Watkins (b)
RP Micah Bowie (b)
RP Roy Corcoran (b)
RP Travis Hughes (s)
RP Santiago Ramirez (b)
CA Brandon Harper (b)
2B Bernie Castro (s)
3B Brandon Larson (p)
SS Josh Labandeira
CF Kenny Kelly (b)
RF Mike Vento (b)

Micah Bowie has a significant amount of Major League experience under his belt. I don't see why you wouldn't just take some of those splits plus any minor league statistics you can find and go from there.

EDIT: In all reality, none of these guys are really prospects any more. Many of them were once highly touted by other teams as "players of the future", like Larson with the Cincy Reds, but never lived up to their potential. I think looking for updated minor league analyses on these people is a waste of time. Just go with their minor league numbers and guestimate what it would translate to in the majors.

[Waninski]

Originally Posted by tehwholeworld

I'm curious about Brandon McCarthy of the White Sox (along with Brian Anderson, but he's already been posted). He showed his true talent in the second half of last year (ERA below 2, dominated good lineups such as Boston and Texas in their homes) when he was starting on a regular basis, but has struggled this year mainly because (I believe at least) he is used inconsistantly, which is something that he has never had to deal with (he was a starter throughout his career, but shoved into the bullpen this year). Where could I expect to see his ratings/talent in the roster set?

McCarthy is an interesting case. He was always groomed to be a starter throughout his minor league development and many around the White Sox would be so brash as to say that the team has ruined him by using him as a reliever this season. I agree that he really showed his true potential last season as well as opening night against Cleveland, if you remember. After the rain delay ended, McCarthy came on and dominated the Indians lineup for a few innings. I think it would be best to rate him on how he did last year, as it should be up to the human player/computer manager to decide whether he is in the rotation or is coming out of the pen from the get go.

[RBA333]

Mike Vento has been an all around good player. Although he doesn’t look to fit into the Yankees plans anytime soon, he can hit for average, and added a lot of extra base hits, leading to a high OBP%. He was very consistent in his production between Columbus and Trenton. Look for his numbers to increase in the 2004 season.


http://yankees.scout.com/2/227015.html
a lil old but i hope it helps some

[BarryZito75]

Originally Posted by tehwholeworld

I'm curious about Brandon McCarthy of the White Sox (along with Brian Anderson, but he's already been posted). He showed his true talent in the second half of last year (ERA below 2, dominated good lineups such as Boston and Texas in their homes) when he was starting on a regular basis, but has struggled this year mainly because (I believe at least) he is used inconsistantly, which is something that he has never had to deal with (he was a starter throughout his career, but shoved into the bullpen this year). Where could I expect to see his ratings/talent in the roster set?

His "true" talent as a starter is an ERA below 2?

[Waninski]

Originally Posted by BarryZito75

His "true" talent as a starter is an ERA below 2?

I'm not sure why I'm even responding to your lack of insight here...but just to defend my man, I'm going to clarify this for your own stupidity:

Brandon McCarthy's 2005 stats as a starter:
10 GS, 3 W, 2 L, 4.17 ERA, 58.1 IP, 54 H, 14 BB, 39 SO

Brandon McCarthy's 2005 stats post All-Star Break:
7 G, 5 GS, 3 W, 1 L, 1.69 ERA, 43. 2 IP, 31 H, 8 BB, 31 SO

No one on the planet is expected to have an ERA below 2, unless your name is Roger Clemens. But you can clearly see frmo his second half performance (dominating Boston and Texas, the two best offenses in the league last year) of what his true potential is. Either you really are a fool, or you're just trying to be a smart ass with your comment. Either way, you just made me waste about 6 minutes typing this out.

[CubbyFan23]

Originally Posted by Waninski

Micah Bowie has a significant amount of Major League experience under his belt. I don't see why you wouldn't just take some of those splits plus any minor league statistics you can find and go from there.

EDIT: In all reality, none of these guys are really prospects any more. Many of them were once highly touted by other teams as "players of the future", like Larson with the Cincy Reds, but never lived up to their potential. I think looking for updated minor league analyses on these people is a waste of time. Just go with their minor league numbers and guestimate what it would translate to in the majors.

I'm not looking for ratings, I'm looking for scouting reports so I can have accurate pitches and speeds for the pitches (or an idea of how good a fielder or bunter a player is) .. I can't get that from statistics, what you mentioned is what I'm doing with guys w/o PECOTA stats.

[Waninski]

Originally Posted by CubbyFan23

I'm not looking for ratings, I'm looking for scouting reports so I can have accurate pitches and speeds for the pitches (or an idea of how good a fielder or bunter a player is) .. I can't get that from statistics, what you mentioned is what I'm doing with guys w/o PECOTA stats.

Ah, I understand now. My apologies.

[Waninski]

Cubbyfan, here's a page I found with a small scouting report on some of the players you mentioned on the Zephyrs, Washington's AAA affiliate. Beware though, I cannot get this website to open without the Google cache option that I am sending you.
http://64.233.167.104/search?q=cache...s&ct=clnk&cd=2



A taste of the website:

Micah Bowie has "average stuff and a very good changeup."
Andrew Good is a "pitcher's pitcher. Doesn't have an overpowering fastball, but solid off-speed pitches, and he locates the ball."

It's pretty limited stuff, but may help a little.

[CubbyFan23]

Awesome! Thanks for the help! I think I'm going to keep that post updated and just edit as I find reports or need new ones.

[onthepunt]

remember what i said

[Joe Canadian]

Whoever is modding this thread shoul edit the quotes... the msgs you deleted can still be seen, FWIW.

[deadringer]

Originally Posted by Joe Canadian

Whoever is modding this thread shoul edit the quotes... the msgs you deleted can still be seen, FWIW.

I just took care of the one that I quoted. Good call Mr Canadian!

[molarmite]

If you have any questions on Twins prospects, just give me a holla.

[BarryZito75]

Originally Posted by Waninski

I'm not sure why I'm even responding to your lack of insight here...but just to defend my man, I'm going to clarify this for your own stupidity:

Brandon McCarthy's 2005 stats as a starter:
10 GS, 3 W, 2 L, 4.17 ERA, 58.1 IP, 54 H, 14 BB, 39 SO

Brandon McCarthy's 2005 stats post All-Star Break:
7 G, 5 GS, 3 W, 1 L, 1.69 ERA, 43. 2 IP, 31 H, 8 BB, 31 SO

No one on the planet is expected to have an ERA below 2, unless your name is Roger Clemens. But you can clearly see frmo his second half performance (dominating Boston and Texas, the two best offenses in the league last year) of what his true potential is. Either you really are a fool, or you're just trying to be a smart ass with your comment. Either way, you just made me waste about 6 minutes typing this out.

Oh so I'm stupid and a fool? I never said he was bad. Maybe the "real" Brandon McCarthy is the pre-All-star break McCarthy? All you can do is examine the entire sample size (which is entirely too small, especially when you break it down into 58 and 43 IP, ie AARON SMALL LAST YEAR), and base the ratings off of that. How do you know that's his "true" potential? Players can look great for short stretches. Just ask Shane Spencer, Jeff D'Amico, Roger Cedeno, Kevin Maas, Mark Quinn, Rick Ankiel, Omar Daal and scores and scores of other players that either had one good year, or simply one good stretch. What if he is one of them? I never said the guy was bad, it's just that his "true potential" is not sub-2 ERA; he'd probably be lucky to put a sub-3 just two or three times in his career in this current era (Mike Mussina only did it ONCE, and he's one of the best of the era). Don't be so defensive.

[Waninski]

Originally Posted by BarryZito75

Oh so I'm stupid and a fool? I never said he was bad. Maybe the "real" Brandon McCarthy is the pre-All-star break McCarthy? All you can do is examine the entire sample size (which is entirely too small, especially when you break it down into 58 and 43 IP, ie AARON SMALL LAST YEAR), and base the ratings off of that. How do you know that's his "true" potential? Players can look great for short stretches. Just ask Shane Spencer, Jeff D'Amico, Roger Cedeno, Kevin Maas, Mark Quinn, Rick Ankiel, Omar Daal and scores and scores of other players that either had one good year, or simply one good stretch. What if he is one of them? I never said the guy was bad, it's just that his "true potential" is not sub-2 ERA; he'd probably be lucky to put a sub-3 just two or three times in his career in this current era (Mike Mussina only did it ONCE, and he's one of the best of the era). Don't be so defensive.

You're confusing yourself over the difference between potential and reality.

[BarryZito75]

But the reality is, his potential is not as high as sub-2 ERA. Therefore he shouldnt have the potential to do it in a roster set.

[crackpott]

I'm just echoing the concern for Rios.

Hillenbrand's performance this year... well, it's likely a fluke. I'm a Jays fan and I'll admit that. There's no evidence he should keep this up.

Rios on the other hand was EXPECTED to be incredibly good, and he's finally hit his potential. Unlike Swisher, he's not dramatically slowing down, either. His OPS of .971 in June is his worst month yet.

And thankfully my concerns about him he seems to be addressing. I knew he wasn't going to keep hitting .350, and when his average dropped, if he didn't learn how to take a walk, his production would drop too. His 2 walks in April turned into 11 in May and in the same number of PA as in May, he's on pace to have about 20 in June. 20 walks in a month isn't just adequate, that's phenomenal, especially out of a player who didn't walk at all going into this season.

So, his average in June is 100 points lower than in any other month. Yet he's kept up a high OPS through
a) Learning how to walk. Sample size or not, players who don't walk don't have months where they just randomly take 20 of them
b) Continued power. He already has 5 HR this month. We're halfway into June. That means it's quite possible he'll match his 2005 total of homeruns in ONE MONTH. All while learning how to take a walk.

Hillenbrand is a fluke. Few "hit their potential" at 31. But Rios deserves good ratings. I'll argue to the death over this one.

[randomlefty10]

Also, just in case, Felix Hernandez. He's been hurt ERA wise by incredibly flukey BABIP (.349) and HR/FB (21.1%) spikes. His xFIP reflects this as last year it was a phenomenal 2.87 and this year, as "bad" as he's been, it's at 3.50. Whatever ratings you have given him after last season's performance, I would keep his potentials the same, add a smidgen to his stuff rating, and take a smidgen off his control rating. That's it. He is no less the pitcher he was last year and that pitcher fully justified his sub-3 ERA.