CubbyFan23/haveband Roster Set Ratings Discussion

[Muzamba]

A few things...

First of all, for anyone who might possibly have any doubts, I want to confirm that I have seen the rosters and they are legit. Just wanted to get that out of the way so there's no anxiety for any newbies who aren't aware of Cubby's stellar track record.

Secondly, I'd like to point out that Cubby referred to this as a 'beta' release and I think that's the best way to look at it. The intention here is to get a solid roster set out there for public consumption. (Both AirmenSmith & Darkcloud's sets were serviceable, but both have basically acknowleged that their rosters were essentially stopgaps to tide us over until a more comprehensive set was released.)

Please remember that there's still a lot that needs to be added, much of which you will undoubtedly discover in the coming weeks. Of course, that's a good thing. With all of you acting as 'beta testers' for this set, it'll help Cubby and those of us that are helping him make the next release that much better!

For now, though, keep things in perspective. If you need a decent roster set that has correct names on the correct teams with accurate ratings and a few extras, this set should suffice, especially just to play around with. On the other hand, if you're looking for a comprehensive set with complete history, full minors, and endless minutia, you may want to consider holding out for the later release. This is especially true for established online leagues or if you're just a stickler for details.

Which leads me to my third point...

I've already been looking ahead to the next release and have been compiling info to be included in it. As Cubby said, it shouldn't take too long to get V2 out.

However...

For this to truly be the ultimate roster set, it's gonna take a lot of polishing. And that's where all of you come in.

Go ahead and play around with the set for now. But once you've got a good feel for it, or whenever you slow down with it, perhaps you could volunteer some of your time to helping us work on the follow-up release. I know I'm definitely gonna need a considerable amount of help on my end. (Then again, now that we have Redsoxford's Importer to assist us, entering data should be much less time-consuming. Plus, we can have a lot more people working on it at once. So this opens up a whole world of possibilities!)

Anyway, I need to wrap this up and get back to work. I guess what I'm saying here is enjoy the beta rosters when they come out either late tonight or tomorrow afternoon (I'm personally rooting for tomorrow afternoon ) and then, if you have the time, PM me and I'll tell you how you can help out for the next release.

[CubbyFan23]

Alright guys, sorry for the delay, we're looking at afternoon release tomorrow so that Muz can finish up and I can polish a few more things off in the meantime. Look for a new thread for the release!

[stickpiano]

I feel like Kevin Kouzmanoff should have a better "eye". In the low 60's as opposed to the high 40's. I see him as a poor-man's Youkilis.

Also, Yovani Gallardo should be more ridiculous. He's a better prospect than Phillip Hughes.

Russell Martin needs more speed, he's stolen 12 bases this year.

Kevin Slowey needs more movement. You are right that he doesn't have great 'pure stuff' but has outstanding control and gets good movement. Control in the 80's like you have it, and movement in the low 60's.

[pseudofool]

Ratings quibble/fix.

Michael Cuddyer position should only be RF, he's still eligble to play 3b/2b and pretty well.

Moreover, I think he's rated far too low; I think his gap power be around 75, and his Contact and Eye ratings are also a bit low. He's a top 100 fantasy player this year...

[gZusLuvsU15]

Are the ratings for the most part determined from last year's stats? That would make sense for "Opening Day" rosters, but aren't these rosters hopefully as current as possible? What if a player had an injury riddled year last year?

For example, Gary Sheffield played only a handful of games last year, but he looks to be in top form this year (AVG. - .291, HR - 17, RBI - 50).

Magglio Ordonez was still recovering from his multiple injuries a couple years ago, but now looks to be in his MVP-type self again (AVG. - .379, 2B - 34, RBI - 68).

I guess I just want to know if these rosters are solely based on last years stats, or if there's room to tweak them based on what we know of this year already.

[CubbyFan23]

I'm absolutely open to editing them based on what people are doing this year, they're based on PECOTA projections which take into account aging, the last 3 years of stats, etc. etc. among other things, so they certainly aren't foolproof.

[Powderguy]

For the D-Rays, BJ Upton should have a rating for CF as he has played there this year and possibly will get moved there permanently if his defense at 2b keeps lacking.

[jskipper]

Great work on the set...thanks for everyone's hard work.

Quick question...what impact does velocity have? I noticed some seemed off, but when I adjust them it has no impact on projected stats. Not sure if that's worth fixing for players if that's the case...

[injury log]

From research conducted by redsoxford, Velocity doesn't affect in-game performance. It is correlated with Stuff when OOTP generates fictional pitchers. I don't know if it affects pitcher development, however.

[CubbyFan23]

Purely cosmetic -- we'll get to it eventually but I figured there was other priorities before we got to that point.

[Jami]

Just a few small fixes for the Brewers:

- Bill Hall moved from 3B to CF this year
- Geoff Jenkins moved from RF to LF
- Corey Hart plays RF
- Craig Counsell plays both SS and 2B, but plays SS more often
- Tony Graffanino plays 2B most of the time since he doesn't have the range to play SS anymore

Awesome job on these, though...they look great.

[blah37]

I would not rank Mike Napoli and Jarrod Saltamacchia as better catchers than Russell Martin. Naploli has a career batting average of .235, while Saltamacchia is still in the minors(I believe). Russel Martin is a stud, one of the best catchers in the league.

Mike Napoli stats
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/player...playerId=28444

Russel Martin stats
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/player...?playerId=6390


Also, what is up with the projected budget room figures for all the teams? They seem to be way off. But, anyways, great roster set! I'm really enjoying it and appreciate all your hard work.

[Overkill]

Here are a few suggestions of ratings changes for the Jays. To make it easier, I went into the editor to see what the new ratings would produce and those ratings are what I will post here.

Alex Rios
BABIP - 117 of 147
Avoid Ks - 116 of 122
Power - 128 of 137
Prior to these changes, Rios was set ot hit .270 with only 17 homers. Problem? He already has 17 homers this year, and is on pace for many more. With these changes, he'll immediately hit around .290-.300 and have about 25-30 homers while not striking out 100 times.

Matt Stairs
BABIP - 110 of 110
Avoid Ks - 96 of 96
Power - 166 of 166
Stairs is also way underrated in the game, and his play in the absence of Lyle Overbay has been great. The game had him set ot hit around .240ish, while he is currently hovering just above .300. I do not necessarily expect him to stay around .300 for the rest of the season, but I certainly do not expect him to dip as far down as .240. That said, the game also has him set to hit about only 23 homers, while if you calculate his current numbers, he'd average about 41 homers in 550 AB. Due to this, I took a few off settled for a number in the high 30s.

Reed Johnson
#3, not #4
BABIP - 131 of 131
Gap - 153 of 155
Running Speed - 150
Bunt for hit - 88
This roster set has him set to hit .266 which may not seem like a problem considering he's currently hitting .265 in real life...but that is through only 7 games. I basically went by last year's numbers and lowered his expectations a little bit. As for speed, has anybody ever seen this guy run? He's a bullet, but can't really steal for some reason so I may consider lowering his stealing ability a notch or two.

John McDonald
BABIP - all I did was up it against lefties to 111. He can only seem to hit lefties for some reason.

Aaron Hill
Power - 105 of either 108 (maybe 113, can't really decide)
Gap - 146 of 148
IF Range - 160
This will about double his output of homers for this year, which should reflect his current performance. As for the IF range, I don't know how he gets to some of the balls he does.

Dustin McGowan
#29, not #40
Movement - 141 of 146
Control - 97 of 107
Add a pitch - Curveball
The movement may be a stretch, but the control definitely is not. He's had his bad performances this year, but he's also had amazing ones like Sunday's 1-hitter against the Rockies. As for the curveball thing, google "Dustin Mcgowan spotsnet.ca" and read the scouting report.

Jeremy Accardo
Stuff - 148 of 148
Movement - 167 of 172
This guy has been lights-out in the absence of B.J. Ryan. While I do believe his stuff should be a 148, his movement his debatable. He rarely allows a hit, or a HR, so perhaps the 167 is justified.

Casey Janssen
Movement - 167 of 167
Control - 154 of 157
Endurance - 72-92 range (out of 250)
Velocity - 89-90
Add pitch - Curveball
His movement is to make up for the fact that he rarely strikes anybody out. Control? Look at this guy, he doesn't strike out many. Unfortunately, all of this success has come while IN THE BULLPEN. Therefore, his endurance should probably be lowered so as to not have him possibly enter the rotation with these abilities because I'm sure he'd have an inflated ERA if he were to be placed in the rotation.

Shaun Marcum
Stuff - 134 of 134
Movement - 121 of 121
This is another guy who should turn out well for the Jays. He was among the team leaders in Ks once he moved to the rotation, and still has a great ERA at the moment.

A.J. Burnett
Stuff - 154 of 154
Movement - 140 of 140
He's striking out more this year and allowing less hits. That said, his control could probably be lowered a little bit. Maybe 20 points or so.

Roy Halladay
Movement - 158 of 158
Velocity - 95-97 MPH
Add pitch - Knuckle-curve
I'm not sure how much velocity or # of pitches thrown affect a pitcher in the game, but we might as well be realistic about it.

Brian Tallet
Stuff - 119 of 119
Movement - 126 of 126
Tallet is striking out guys this year, and it has paid off with a 2.53 ERA.

Scott Downs
Stuff - 139 of 139
Like many other Blue Jays relievers, he's striking out more guys in his role as a lefty specialist this year. That said, a lot fo the improvement in stuff should go against lefties as opposed to righties.

As you can see, I'm suggesting a lot of the Jays pitchers get improved. This is not necessarily a stretch by any means considering opposing teams are only hitting .222 off the Jays bullpen this season. But if given ratings like my suggestions for Shaun Marcum, he comes out to be a 4.5 star guy, which may be unrealistic despite the statistics in the editor reflecting favourably upon his real-life statistics. Guys like Accardo and Janssen certainly deserve it. But these are only suggestions, not things that NEED to happen. I'm sure many people will voice their opinions on their favourite teams and possibly be somewhat biased, so we'll see what happens.

[Go Tribe]

you forgot to talk about how vernon wells should be devalued no?

people should post the positives and negatives, not just hey can you bump all of these guys

[jskipper]

Alright, here’s an assessment of the Pirates. I’m admittedly biased, but I also realize the Pirates are a pretty bad team right overall. That being said, here’s an honest look and includes some people who I think are overrated, but most people sufficiently suck. I’m not going to argue many ratings, most of this is to correct positional capabilities:

First, some moves: Kelly, Bayliss, & Eldred to AAA, Masumi Kuwata from AA to active, Wasdin & Van Benschoten from AAA to active.

I’m not seeing Brad Lincoln or Serguey Lineras anywhere. Brad Lincoln should definitely be a top 10 talent in the Pirates system, top 5 even (he’s hurt though).

Ian Snell – Looks underrated to me. 2.92 ERA & 1.20 WHIP this year with .236 BAA. He’s going to be really good in the future. He’s young, so I think increasing his potential for Stuff and Movement into the 140s would allow him to potentially reach the lower 3.00s for ERA. Tom Gorzelanny has a similar case, but personally I’m higher on Snell.

Matt Capps - Is now the closer. Has a sub-3 ERA and having a great year. He should be the best player in the bullpen.

John Grabow – Waaaaay overrated to me. Has an ERA about 6 this year...more realistically should be mid-4s, but his current potential is for high 3s. Some decreases are warranted.

Salomon Torres - Is MR, no longer the CL.

Josh Phelps - Should have at least a minimal catcher ability. Is an emergency catcher and was originally drafted as a catcher.

Jose Castillo - Former SS and plays there on occasion.

Freddy Sanchez - Primarily a 2B, not 3B. I’d increase his contact as he is projected to bat .293. Last year he led the NL in BA at .344 and doubles at 53. He was hurt at the start of the year and started slowly, but is picking it up

Jose Bautista - Primarily a 3B…has never played SS in the majors, although I believe he has while in the minors. Was used mostly as a CF last year, so he should have some ability there.

Brad Eldred - Primary is a 1B. Has never played LF.

John Van Benschoten - Is a pitcher, but was 1B at Kent State and led the NCAA in HRs in 2001, so basically he can hit. (For some reason the Pirates decided he should pitch). Maybe increase his offensive ratings to at least make him a .250 15 HR guy if he were playing a position everyday.
I think his pitching potential is really low. He’s been injured, so it’s hard to assess…tore up AAA though this year though. 2.73 ERA in 12 starts and has done decent in two ML starts (4.22 ERA)

Masumi Kuwata – Should have really high movement and really low velocity:

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/07177/797131-63.stm

Those are some thoughts…let me know if you’d like more backup to my arguments.

[CubbyFan23]

Wow guys, this is great stuff! Keep it comin'!

skipper -- I thought for some reason the Pirates were planning on using Eldred some in the OF in LF and RF even though he's below average defensively. Am I wrong there?

[Burrows]

Originally Posted by blah37

I would not rank Mike Napoli and Jarrod Saltamacchia as better catchers than Russell Martin. Naploli has a career batting average of .235, while Saltamacchia is still in the minors(I believe). Russel Martin is a stud, one of the best catchers in the league.

Mike Napoli stats
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/player...playerId=28444

Russel Martin stats
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/player...?playerId=6390


Also, what is up with the projected budget room figures for all the teams? They seem to be way off. But, anyways, great roster set! I'm really enjoying it and appreciate all your hard work.

Salty is not in the Minors he is hitting near .330 with 4 Homeruns in around 80 abs or so......

[Overkill]

Troy Glaus
He has a rating of 7 at 1B and a rating of 5 at 3B. The problem here is that I cannot find any evidence of him EVER playing 1B. He HAS played 18 games at SS (including 8 last year), but not even in the minors did he play 1B. In my opinion, his experience at 1B should be reduced to 0. I'm not sure if I'd give him any experience at SS though...maybe a 20 out of 200 at the most.

Aaron Hill
Throughout his minor league career he was an SS, so perhaps a boost in experience would be nice here. As for 3B, perhaps a reduction in his experience at that base would be necessary. The only time he has ever played 3B was for 35 games in 2005 while filling in for Corey Koskie, and it was his worst fielding position by far (.949). His experience at 3B is set at 140, I'd at least cut that in half to 70 and maybe even go lower. That said, I'd also consider raising his Infield Error rating. His time at 3B is not a good indication, but his time at 2B has seen him field .991, .987 and now .985 this year. What does that translate to? I honestly don't know, but I'd think he should be better than a 106. I've currently set him to 146 for myself, but do what you want with that one.

Gustavo Chacin
#39, not #42

[injury log]

Originally Posted by Overkill

Matt Stairs
BABIP - 110 of 110
Avoid Ks - 96 of 96
Power - 166 of 166
Stairs is also way underrated in the game, and his play in the absence of Lyle Overbay has been great. The game had him set ot hit around .240ish, while he is currently hovering just above .300. I do not necessarily expect him to stay around .300 for the rest of the season, but I certainly do not expect him to dip as far down as .240. That said, the game also has him set to hit about only 23 homers, while if you calculate his current numbers, he'd average about 41 homers in 550 AB. Due to this, I took a few off settled for a number in the high 30s.

[...]

Dustin McGowan
#29, not #40
Movement - 141 of 146
Control - 97 of 107
Add a pitch - Curveball
The movement may be a stretch, but the control definitely is not. He's had his bad performances this year, but he's also had amazing ones like Sunday's 1-hitter against the Rockies. As for the curveball thing, google "Dustin Mcgowan spotsnet.ca" and read the scouting report.

I think you should be very cautious about reading too much into 2007 stats. In the case of Matt Stairs, for example, we have about 10 years of stats that say he'll hit about 20-22 HRs per 550 ABs. That's more compelling evidence to me than 160 ABs this year. A guy rated with OOTP Power to hit about 20 HRs per season will often hit 12 HRs in 160 ABs as Stairs has done this year; there's enough randomness in OOTP to ensure that. Stairs should be about a .265 hitter, judging by past performance (PECOTA has probably killed him off a bit for his age).

2007 stats are especially suspect for RPs, who may have only thrown 30 innings- it's not a reliable read of the player's true ratings. One bad game could make any RP this year look like a dud. With guys like McGowan, Janssen, Marcum and Tallet, they don't have enough ML experience to get a true gauge of their ratings, and in these cases I'd defer to scouting- McGowan has always been a high-potential enigma, while the others are only considered mid-level prospects, probable bullpen types. A few notes-

-Shaun Marcum gives up tons of HRs, so his movement should be low- at his current pace (combining the past two seasons) his Movement should be around 67/200 to give the correct HR total;
-Janssen also gave up a lot of HRs his first season (as an SP); combining 06-07 gives a 139 Movement to get the right HR rate. His Endurance should probably be right around 100 (any lower and he won't even be able to start);
-Downs 05-06 K rate gives a Stuff of 105; this should maybe be slightly higher to reflect what he's doing this year, but he's likely getting more Ks because he's facing more lefties. I'd give him a pronounced L/R Stuff split, averaging to a Stuff of 115 or so.

As for the other guys, Rios and McGowan have always been adored by scouts, so that should be reflected in their Potential ratings at least. I'm with you on Rios, who seems underrated. Hill has a good reputation on defense, but I think you're going too far on his range; he's not a Gold Glove/Ozzie Smith type out there. Reed Johnson is not a starting OF on a good team- his BA and OBP last year were way out of line with his career performance. For guys over about 26 yrs, PECOTA is probably going to do a very good job; I'm most concerned about ratings for younger players.

[injury log]

Originally Posted by jskipper

Brad Eldred - Primary is a 1B. Has never played LF.

John Van Benschoten - Is a pitcher, but was 1B at Kent State and led the NCAA in HRs in 2001, so basically he can hit. (For some reason the Pirates decided he should pitch). Maybe increase his offensive ratings to at least make him a .250 15 HR guy if he were playing a position everyday.
I think his pitching potential is really low. He’s been injured, so it’s hard to assess…tore up AAA though this year though. 2.73 ERA in 12 starts and has done decent in two ML starts (4.22 ERA)

Ok, now the Pirates:

-Eldred started playing RF in spring training this year; he shouldn't have much experience there. He has played 8 games in RF this year, and his range has been terrible. I'd give him a 40 for experience, an average error rating, miserable range, and a below average arm.

-Lincoln is out for the year, but should certainly be in the set. Who knows how well he'll come back;

-Serguey Linares should be in there. RHSP, born 2/1 1983, now in A-ball, some potential (hard to judge with so few IPs), but his Control at the moment is absolutely awful. He throws hard. Eyeballing his current ratings, I'd give him 45 Stuff, 75 Movement, 10 Control; Potential (just a guess!): 118 Stuff, 85 Movement, 47 Control. With a talent bump, he'll be something, otherwise no.

-Scouts believe in Snell, so I don't think his performance this year is a fluke. Same with Capps; he should certainly be the Pirates best RP;

-Phelps has played a lot of catcher, but of course he should be very bad back there- high experience, but very low ratings;

-Van Benschoten should certainly have some decent (not great) batting potential, but as a hitter in the minors he has never put up good results. His current batting ratings should probably lead to a .180-.200/15 HR performance in the majors, with some untapped potential. It would also be great if guys like Nick Markakis and Adam Jones had some pitching potential- I haven't checked them out yet...