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#61 (permalink) |
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Minors (Rookie Ball)
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Columbus, OH
Posts: 26
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Just a couple of things I noted when looking through my beloved Indians...but overall, I think you nailed it pretty much spot on...!
Ryan Garko - He's got close to 400 major league at bats now (a bit of a small sample size, I'll admit), and he's hitting .290-.360-.467. with a real good minor league track record. His actual ratings aren't really way off, given that OOTP projects him at .266-.341-.445, but the problem is that he has almost no room for improvements in his potential rating. Given that he's still adjusting to ML pitching and is only 26 YO, I think it would be nice to see his potential bumped up just a little bit, to get him the chance to get in the neighborhood of a .280, 25 HR a year guy. Josh Barfield - Range of 98/250 at 2B seems a titch low. After watching the guy this year, he's definetely got above average range. He's not the second coming of Robbie Alomar...but he sure is a nice, solid defensive 2B. Kelly Shoppach - He's currently hitting .382-.455-.676 and OOTP's only projecting him to be...oh, who am I kidding. We all know this can't possibly last with Kelly. ![]() Victor Martinez - He's spot on in most categories, except that his projected average of .287 is a bit off his career .302 average (he's also got a bit more doubles power than the ratings would indicate...he's averaged about 35 doubles per 550 ABs for his career). Also, his throwing arm rating is a bit generous...he's only thrown out 23% of runners for his career, so his arm should probably be bumped down a few notches. Joe Borowski should be listed as the closer, Betancourt in MR (in the setup role). I didn't really go through everything with a fine-toothed comb...but really, things look pretty much in order here. Can't wait to start playing when I get home from work!
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#62 (permalink) |
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Minors (Rookie Ball)
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 30
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Alright. Here's my take on the Detroit Tigers.
Sean Casey - Should have a little higher contact rating. He is a career .300 hitter (.302) and his hitting .297 in 2007. He had an off year last year, but that was partly to adjusting to AL pitching. I think his contact should be raised to around 131 overall, to equal a projected .296 average or so, up from the currently projected .280. Gary Sheffield - Gary is still primarily an outfielder. The Yankees experimented with him at first base, but they experiment EVERYONE at first base. Leyland has said that Gary will NOT be playing first base at all this year. He probably shouldn't even have a rating for 1B. He should have a rating for LF as well as RF. Also, he is projected by OOTP to bat around .276 and draw only 62 BB. Gary is a career .297 hitter and has walked more than he has struckout in a season the majority of his career. He should definitely have a higher "Eye" rating (maybe in the 130s, he already has 48 BB this year) and a higher contact rating (maybe close to 130). His power should also be increased. Gary had an off year last year because of injuries and only played in 39 games. He is on pace to hit 40 HRs again this year and add to his 455 career home runs, which should warrant a power increase to maybe high 140s, low 150s. He is still one of the most feared hitters in the league. Omar Infante - He has played 21 career games in CF, but has played 12 this year. He is Jim Leyland's primary backup CF that plays against most lefties, because of Granderson's struggles against LHPs. He has 0 career errors in CF and should probably get a decent rating there. Placido Polanco - Here's another career .300 hitter, maybe boost his contact a bit, but a projected .293 is probably somewhat fair Ramon Santiago - Horrible hitter, freakin sweet fielder. His infield arm and range should be increased to maybe the 150s or so. Carlos Guillen - I said earlier that Sheffield should lose his 1B rating, I think Guillen should gain a 1B rating. Not a very high one, but he can hold is own at 1B and is 3rd on Leyland's depth chart as far as first basemen is concerned. Although, I think his infield ratings might be a bit too high. The only reason Guillen is playing 1B more is because his SS skills are severely laking ever since he got injured a couple years ago. He still has a strong arm, but his range has decreased and his errors are up. Offense looks good though. Curtis Granderson - Alright, last year was his rookie season. He had some ups and some downs, specifically the strikeouts. I am all for having a low "Avoid K" rating, but I think potentially his ratings are all too low. We are beginning to see glimpses of what this kid can do. He currently has 14 3B, 22 2B, 10 HRs and is batting .294 in 2007. Like I said, his strikeouts are still a little too high, but I think we should be looking at ratings in the high 140s, low 150s for contact, gap power, and power, keeping in mind the low "Avoid K" number that will bring down his overall contact. Although, make sure his LHP is a good bit lower than RHP, he is still struggling a bit against major league LHP. The reason he's getting all of these extra base hits is because he really is quite fast. He has yet to develop the ability to read pitchers well, so his stolen base numbers aren't high (although he is 9 for 9 SB this year), but he is fast and his base running ability is really good. I think we should be looking in the 150s for speed and base running ability as well. This kid is a smart player (double-majored in college) and is such an exciting player to watch. Magglio Ordonez - Now for the BIG one. I can see how PECOTA got this wrong. Magglio is 31, and is coming off an injury riddled 04 and 05, which caused him to not be full strength in 06, but boy is he full strength this year! Currently batting .377, 34 2B, 13 HR and 68 RBI, Magglio is on pace to have an MVP season. He has more doubles currently than he did all of last year! OOTP has him projected to hit .288, 18 HR, 29 2B, that is a lot lower than even his career average of .309, 29 HR, 40 2B. Now, do I think he will keep on this pace....yes, but I can see how pitchers will start to pitch around him more. I think ratings in the 140s, 150s for contact and gap, and 130s for power would work right. Jeremy Bonderman - Everything looks good except he averages about 171 strikeouts a season (OOTP has him at 119), maybe move his stuff into the 120s and raise his potential just a wee bit. Justin Verlander - Yes, I know I might still be on a "no-hitter" high, but his stuff has GOT to be higher. Also, Justin used to feature a knuckle-curve, but he had some blister problems when throwing that pitch, so he now uses a standard curveball, but WOW, what a curveball it is! After this year, he is on pace to average around 150 strikeouts and an ERA around 3.50. If anything I would raise his stuff to the mid 120s and movement to around 120. Now, if anything Justin struggles with his walking batter. He has GREAT command of his pitches, but his pitches have such great movment, they sometimes will just miss the corner. I think his potential ratings should be higher as well, he was Rookie of the Year last year, 7th in the Cy Young voting and is on his way to an even better sophmore season. To me, the sky is the limit with this guy. Todd Jones - As much as Tiger fans wish he wasn't, Todd Jones is our closer, Zumaya should be a MR (setup man). Macay McBride - It's sweet that he's included on the Tigers, but he's an MR Kenny Rogers - I know that he's old, gray, and a junkball pitcher, but this dude can pitch! He should at least have movement in the 130s. Jair Jurrjens - He is one of the Tigers' top rated pitching prospects and should have higher potential stuff, maybe high 110s Andrew Miller - He's actually 6'6", but who's counting? I think potentially his control will be better than what he currently has, maybe around 110? Chad Durbin - Durbin has been a pleasant surprise this year for Detroit. His previous years don't look as great, but he's got some decent stuff and his stuff rating should be in the 100s. I guess that's all for now. Yes, I know, I am quite biased when it comes to the Tigers, and yes Yankee fans, you can stop throwing up on the floor now, I just think the Tigers offense was a little bit underated in OOTP this year. The impact of Gary Sheffield is very hard to reflect via ratings. |
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#63 (permalink) |
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Major Leagues
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 302
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Got to say, looks like you nailed the mariners pretty well. It seems that the game is not able to really evaluate a player like Ichiro (only in regards to overall). It seems odd to see him as a 52 when he is the best player on the team. But when I look at his individual ratings they all seem pretty spot on.
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#64 (permalink) |
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Bat Boy
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 17
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I agree with the tigers...I was especially concerned with the ratings of Ordonez and Rogers. Rogers had a great year last year and Ordonex is killing pitchers right now. If I remember correctly, Polanco the hitting machine is not even in the starting lineup in the ootp rosters but I may be wrong.
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#66 (permalink) | |
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All Star Starter
Join Date: Dec 2001
Posts: 1,320
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Quote:
i don't have ootp at work - what's monroe project to in this set? |
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#67 (permalink) | |
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Minors (Rookie Ball)
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 20
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Quote:
http://postgazette.com/pg/07037/759686-63.stm Eldred played some RF in college too, but hadn't played professionally until spring training. Hasn't completely sucked out there, but obviously due to his size his range is going to be miserable. Every scouting report I've seen has Lincoln as the best pitching prospect in the system, but since he had TJ surgery, a requirement for anyone drafted in the first round by the Pirates, who knows what we'll have when he gets back. Agree on Phelps, he can play the position, but not very good. Thanks for your thoughts...you seem to know your stuff. |
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#70 (permalink) | |
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Minors (Rookie Ball)
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 30
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Quote:
Grandy - CF Guillen - SS Sheff - DH Magglio - RF Thames - LF Casey - 1B Inge - 3B Pudge - C Infante - 2B Not too bad, but the lineup looks a lot different if you stick Polly up in the 2-slot. |
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#72 (permalink) |
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Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 275
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yankee / mets thoughts
a few minor items on the yankees.
Posada should have a 1b fielding rating, although a low one. AI starts Cairo vs RHP over Jeter. From looking at the ratings, I have no idea why!! Abreau deserves a higher eye rating. it's 78, vs giambi's 101. Abreau has 120 bb / year, and should be as high as giambi. At AAA, Shelley Duncan is underrated. he's near the leaders in AAA in HR and RBI, but his power potential is at 40. I'd think it should be around 60. On the mets, I think Glavine is rated too low. ERAs in the 3's the last 3 years, but his stuff is only 36 and he can't crack the rotation. I recomend stuff around 50. Same for el'duque's control. 3:1 K:bb ratio, 41 bbs in 116 ip, pretty good, but control is at 49, not much higher than oliver perez, who is a bb every other ip. I'd move control up to 55. Everything else looks great. nice job!! |
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#73 (permalink) |
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Bat Boy
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 1
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A couple of thoughts on the Braves:
Saltalamacchia - He should have a little experience at 1B, since he is getting some playing time there and it may well be his future position. I think he has the potential to hit 30-35 home runs. Kelly Johnson - I would change his avoid K's to 80 and his eye/patience to 135. He walks and strikes out a lot. Also, his infield range and arm could be a little higher. Jeff Francoeur - Maybe he should have a higher power potential because he is still very young and hit 29 home runs last season. I would increase his eye/patience to 70. His stealing ability seems somewhat high if you consider that he only has 5 stolen bases in 15 attempts. His outfield range should be a lot higher, something like 140. Edgar Renteria - You could increase his BABIP, power and eye/patience ratings a little bit. He is batting .322 and already has 10 home runs. He should be able to hit at least another 5. Also, his infield range seems very high. He has soft hands but not a lot of range. Matt Diaz - Although he looks awful on defense, he gets to many balls. His outfield range should be at least 125. Scott Thorman - He is having an awful year and might not be ready. All his batting ratings should be much lower. Yunel Escobar - He doesn't strike out or walk much. I would increase his avoid K's by 15 and decrease his eye/patience by 15. Chipper Jones - All his batting ratings except eye/patience should be increased by at least 10. His 2007 stats are right in line with his 2006 stats. Also, if anything, he should be better against RHP. John Smoltz - His control should be something like 150. His BB/9 the last 3 years was never higher than 2.2. His velocity is more like 92-94. He throws a curveball and a splitter. Tim Hudson - I would change his control rating to 135 and his movement to something like 180. His K/BB this year is 2.6 and he has only allowed 102 hits and 4 home runs in 112 innings. I think that it's very likely that he can maintain this pace. His velocity should be more like 91-93 and he throws a splitter and a sinker. Chuck James - His control should be lowered to 95. He walks about 3.5 per game. His velocity should be 89-90. He played way over his head last year. Kyle Davies - He is a starting pitcher and throws a slider. Buddy Carlyle - He is a starting pitcher, too. Bob Wickman - Wickman is the closer. Rafael Soriano - He is a MR. His control rating should be 110 and his movement somewhere around 155. He doesn't allow many hits. Oscar Villarreal - He is a MR with 95 stuff. His strike outs are up since last year. However, he has shown the ability to strike out this many batters in the past. He also throws a changeup. Peter Moylan - I would increase his control and movement by 10. He had a nice cup of coffee last year and has continued his good work in 2007. Tyler Yates - Yates has found success in Atlanta. His stuff and movement should be increased by something like 20. He strike out about 9 per game and has only allowed 22 hits in 33 innings this year and 42 hits in 50 innings last year. Mike Gonzalez/Mike Hampton - They should be injured much longer than 4 and 6 months. Mike Hampton should probably be ready for spring training, but Mike Gonzalez will be out until like May. |
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#74 (permalink) |
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All Star Starter
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: St. Louis, Missouri
Posts: 1,326
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Keep 'em coming guys! One thing I can't change however, is roles. As long as the endurance rating (below 50 = reliever, above 50 = starter) is right, that's all we can go with. When the CPU automanages, it throws the best guy into the closer spot (Soriano in ATL, Zumaya in DET) and sometimes throws guys who can't crack the rotation into the bullpen.
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#75 (permalink) | |
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Minors (Rookie Ball)
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 30
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Quote:
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#76 (permalink) |
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All Star Starter
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: St. Louis, Missouri
Posts: 1,326
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The problem is that none of the pitching roles "stick," in that if I make a guy a closer, and then automanage the team, if the team doesn't use him as closer his "position" switches to middle reliever (and vice versa).
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#77 (permalink) |
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Major Leagues
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 302
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A couple of suggestions for the Mariners.
Adam Jones: I think he should lose his ratings at SS. It does not appear that he has any future there, at least with the Mariners. And has not played there in a few seasons. Or maybe just lower it. Maybe to compensate this, give him some ratings at the corner outfield postions, but probably not a big deal. Balentien might be due for a slight boost in his avoid K's potential. Reports are that he has become better at pitch recognition and not swinging for the fences at every oppurtunity, but this is not really a big one. But this is what must make these rosters hard to do. It is hard to determine if his increased walks and lowered strikeouts are actual improvement, or if it just a small sample size. |
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#78 (permalink) |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: London
Posts: 2,251
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I decided to compare the fielding suggestions so far with the ratings from Tangotiger's 'wisdom of crowds' scouting reports, one of the more interesting fielding rating systems out there (http://www.tangotiger.net/scouting/s...sults2006.html ). Here goes:
Aaron Hill- should definitely be above average in range, but not spectacular; 135-145/200 perhaps (I'm assuming an avg 2B has range around 110-115); Josh Barfield- again, above average but not spectacular, similar rating to Hill. His hands (error) below average, however; Ramon Santiago-well above average defense across the board; top 20% in the league type of fielder; Carlos Guillen- pretty much just slightly above average fielder at this point; Jeff Francoeur- above average range, yes, and phenomenal arm; Edgar Renteria- now below average in range; So far, all the comments in this thread are largely in agreement with the Tangotiger results, but some of the rating suggestions seem a bit extreme to me (160+ range for Hill is probably going too far). One exception: Matt Diaz- ranked in the bottom 15% in the majors in every fielding category; not a good fielder. Well, that's what the Tangotiger reports say- believe it if you like! His methodology is certainly interesting, albeit debatable. Last edited by injury log : 06-27-2007 at 09:43 PM. |
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#79 (permalink) |
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Minors (Double A)
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: New Boston, MI
Posts: 149
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I am running a sim currently, and I am watching the Tigers organization. There are a couple of things that bother me, and while I realize that this is just one sim I have done so far I wanted to mention it. Both Omar Infante and marcus Thames get way too many AB's and they take them from Craig Monroe and Placido Palanco. Maybe this is a situation like you just explained with the pitcher's role, but I hope there may be something you could do to rectify this. Also, through two months of the sim it seems the Tigers power numbers are pretty low (actually at a quick glance the entire AL seems low) Thames had 12 (too many, but he was also getting too many AB's as I said), Inge had 9, Sheffield had 6 and there wasn't anybody else with more than 3. Noteables; Guillen 1, Ordonez 2. I plan one running some more tests, maybe this was a fluke, but it just seemed a little extreme.
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#80 (permalink) |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: London
Posts: 2,251
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Okay, I've gone over the Nationals ML roster in detail. First thing to say is- fantastic job! Most of the ratings are in line with what I'd expect, and I expect the set should play very well, provided the pitching and hitting balance is good. A few Nats'comments (all ratings out of 200):
Levale Speigner: To get closer to his performance this year, which is all we really have to go on, lower his Stuff to 54, raise Movement to 120; you could leave potential as is. Matt Chico: Seems too good a prospect; he isn't all that highly thought of. He's been especially HR-prone this year, so I'd bring his movement potential down to 100 or so. Saul Rivera has only given up 5 HRs career in over 100 IP. I doubt it will last, but his movement could go up a touch (+10), and his stuff down a few points (-5)- his k-rate isn't quite as good as the ratings suggest. Jason Bergmann is probably as good as he's going to get now; he was never regarded as a high-potential prospect. I'd bring his potential more in line with his current ratings. Shawn Hill- seems to constantly be having elbow and shoulder problems; his arm injury proneness should be sky high (it's 0 now). John Patterson- should also be very injury prone. Jesus Flores- seems way too ML-ready; he had never played above A-ball before this year, and was considered too raw for the Majors when the rule 5 draft happened (which is why the Mets didn't protect him). He has no power yet (0 HRs this year), though his Eye has been good in a small sample of ABs. I'd lower the Power by at least 70 points, to 40, and raise the Eye from 73 to 95. Potentials could remain the same. Ryan Zimmerman hasn't proven he can hit for a .305 avg, and he strikes out quite a lot. to get closer to his true performance, i'd lower his avoid ks by 10 points, and his contact by 10 points. His gap power, on the other hand, seems like it should be higher (he hit 47 doubles last year). I'd add 10-15 points there. Potentials could stay largely the same. Finally, on defense, his turn double plays should come way down (if he was that good in real life, he'd be a shortstop)- I'd cut that in half. His range, on the other hand, is far too low; by all accounts it is otherworldly. Rob Fick- should maybe be even worse at catcher; he's not good there, and for a long time he was only considered by teams as an emergency option; Dmitri Young- has consistently had fielding PCTs at 1B below .990, and had an .849(!) FPCT the last time he played 3B; for OOTP to produce results that bad, his error rating needs to be awful- like a 10 out of 200; Tony Batista- should have appalling range; he ranked worst in that category among every MLB fielder in Tangotiger's results; Cristian Guzman- should be wildly injury prone; Felipe Lopez- should be a below average fielder; his range is slightly below avg, but he should be particularly bad in error rating (his fielding PCT is around .950); Ryan Langerhans- doesn't have that much power. I'd lower him to 80/100 vsL/vsR; I'd bring his contact down 10 points as well (he's a .240 career hitter). On the other hand, he is an elite defender, with a decent arm and outstanding range. I'd raise his arm to 115, and his range to 155, at least. It's slightly tricky to suggest fielding ratings, because I don't know where you've baselined- the average error or range rating for a 1B should surely be much lower than the average for a SS. If you know the averages by position, I can give more accurate suggestions for changes. [EDIT- never mind, I can figure this out easily enough.] Great stuff, in any case! Last edited by injury log : 06-28-2007 at 11:20 AM. |
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