CubbyFan23/haveband Roster Set Ratings Discussion

[miadchi]

Not that this one will really make too many people upset, but I can't find Joe Borowski on the Tribe either...or anywhere, for that matter.

[CubbyFan23]

If you guys notice any other oldies missing, post them here. For some reason, 1-2 guys per team that are older seem to have gone missing.

Also noticed Mike Sweeney from the Royals is MIA... although that's nothing new for Royal fans.

[Overkill]

Royce Clayton of the Blue Jays is also missing

[injury log]

I ran a full-year sim, and the results seem good overall. Milwaukee beat Boston in the Series, Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens both sustained career ending injuries, Gary Sheffield and Miguel Cabrera led their leagues in HRs. There were two odd trades, both made by the Tigers (Magglio Ordonez to Pittsburgh for Ronny Paulino; Curtis Granderson to Washington for Chris Schroder). ROYs- Delmon Young and Miguel Montero (a bit of a surprise); Cy Youngs: Rafael Betancourt (!) and Brandon Webb; MVPs: Delmon Young and Albert Pujols.

Some of the odd transactions (releases and demotions) seem to occur because the AI can find better substitutes in the minors. This is partly because of the game engine- high potential prospects often progress very quickly. Some guys also probably found their way onto ML rosters because of injury, or because of random ratings boosts. Still, all of the players below were on their team's 25-man roster for a good part of the season, often at the expense of established players. If they make ML rosters in most sims, then their current (Overall) ratings are likely too high in the set, even if their Potential may be accurate. I've listed the players with their current real life minor league level; most who are in AA or AAA are performing very poorly this year, so won't see the majors. The batters:

ARI
antoan richardson [hi-A]
cyle hankerd [hi-A]

ATL
wes timmons [AAA]

BAL
jeff fiorentino [AA]
eider torres [AAA]
brandon sing [AA]
bill rowell [lo-A]

BOS
jeff natale [AA]
lars anderson [lo-A]

CHIC
tyler colvin [hi-A]

CIN
daniel dorn [hi-A]
paul janish [AA]
cody strait [AA]

CLE
michael aubrey [hi-A/AA]
brian barton [AA]
max ramirez [hi-A; he should have very poor defensive ratings at C]

COL
joe gaetti [AA]

DET
gorkys hernandez [lo-A]

FLA
kevin randel [AA]
gaby sanchez [hi-A]
thomas hickman [short-season A]

HOU
justin towles [AA]
drew sutton [AA]

KC
chris lubanski [AA]

LAD
cory dunlap [AA]

MIN
trent oeltjen [AAA, but awful]
brandon roberts [AA]
javier sanchez [hi-A]

NYY
francisco cervelli [hi-A]
alberto gonzalez [AAA]

OAK
jermaine mitchell [lo-A]
vince faison [AA]
justin sellers [hi-A]

PHI
adrian cardenas [lo-A]
michael costanzo [AA]

PIT
neil walker [AA, should be very poor at catcher EDIT- or not, see below]
andrew mccutchen [AA]
tripper johnson [hi-A]

SEA
charlton jimerson [AA]

SD
david freese [hi-A]

STL
jon jay [AA]
bryan anderson [AA]

TB
evan longoria [AA]

TOR
ray olmedo [AAA]
ryan patterson [AA]
travis snider [lo-A]

WAS
melvin dorta [AA]
rogearvin bernadina [AA]
francisco plasencia [hi-A]

The pitchers in next post.

[injury log]

I've noticed several closers in the minors with Gagne potential (Luis Lebron, Oneli Perez, etc), which may be unrealistic- even if these guys have great minor league stats, they aren't likely to be much more than middle relievers in the majors. Two corrections- Andy Woods isn't in the minors, he's playing in the Independent Frontier League; 'Jasno Pridie' should be 'Jason Pridie'.

Sim results- the pitchers I was surprised to see playing major roles on their staff below; most are good prospects, but they came on too quickly, which may mean that their current ratings are too high. Listed with their current real life minor league level:

CWS
jack egbert [AA]
oneli perez [AA]

CHIC
scott koerber [hi-A]

CIN
johnny cueto [hi-A]
sam lecure [AA]

CLE
scott lewis [AA]
chuck lofgren [AA]

COL
brandon hynick [hi-A]

DET
jair jurjjens [AA]

FLA
cristhian martinez [lo-A]
roy corcoran [AAA, but had phenomenal results in my sim]

HOU
christopher blazek [hi-A]
jimmy barthmaier [AA]

LAA
nick adenhart [AA, was almost a Cy Young winner in my sim]

LAD
greg miller [AAA, but with 46 BBs in 28 IP; he was a superstar in my sim]

MIL
will inman [hi-A]

MIN
anthony swarzak [hi-A]

NYM
deolis guerra [hi-A]
jon niese [hi-A]

NYY
j brent cox [he's out for the year]

OAK
jason windsor [not very good in AAA- he replaced Loaiza in my sim]

PHI
carlos carrasco [hi-A]

PIT
todd redmond [hi-A]

SEA
renee cortez [AAA- is an rp though]
robert rohrbaugh [AA]

SF
osiris matos [AA]

STL
jaime garcia [AA]
blake hawksworth [AAA]

TB
jeremy hellickson [lo-A]

TOR
chi hung cheng [rehabbing a labrum injury this year]

WAS
zech zinicola [AA with control problems]
shairon martis [hi-A]
collin balester [AA, was a ROY candidate in my sim]

[Bledsoe]

Just going over the Red Sox initially...

SP Josh Beckett seems really underrated. His ratings are lower than those of Mike Mussina. IRL, who would you rather have? And Beckett is the favorite to start the All-Star game.

I agree with the earlier Youkilis sentiments. He's definitely better than Russell Branyan


Pedroia also needs a boost, He's batting over .300 with more BB than K

Lugo can go down a shade, Cora can come up a little

JD Drew probably needs his power decreased

Thats all for right now

[CubbyFan23]

Wow IL -- great work on that, I was kind of dreading having to go through and find all those guys. Thanks for knocking that out for me!

[czar21]

Cubby, first off, great work-- I honestly trying to pull apart the database in Excel to see if I wanted to go through by hand and adjust some of these guys, and the sheer numbers are overwhelming! Your work is appreciated.

Alright, as a Red Sox fan, (along with like 3 others before me) I feel I should help out and chime in.

Daisuke Matsuzaka-- I'd say bring up his movement a bit-- He posted like a 1.29 ERA in June-- now that he's settling in, I think him finishing the year at a 3-3.25 ERA clip is not out of the question at all. Guy has honestly surprised me with talent.

Josh Beckett-- as mentioned, looks pretty low-- K numbers came out well, but his control has been much better this year, as well as the fact he's throwing more curveballs. He might end up starting the AS game (him or Sabathia) so he shouldn't be a guy who ran out like a 6.00 ERA every season I simmed.

Julio Lugo can probably come down a few notches across the board.

Kevin Youkilis' contact is probably a bit low-- he's been figuring to be top 10 in AL hitting all season-- he seems to have finally taken that discerning eye and begun to put good wood on the pitches he swings at.

Manny Ramirez HR power can likely come down a bit-- he keeps having 50 HR power in my sims, and I'm fairly sure those days are behind him.

Players like Masterson, Lars Anderson, Jeff Natale, Brandon Moss, Chad Spann, even Michael Bowden (our #3 pitching prospect behind Buchholz and Lester) are probably tweaked too high.

I don't know how it works, and I haven't simmed long term (like 5 years out yet) but I think all minor leaguers might have to be knocked down a lot. It seems like ML teams can call up 5-6 guys who shouldn't be near a ML roster in the first year of the sim and they put up respectable numbers. I know everyone likes to think they're teams best prospect is going to be some kind of stud, but many times, they either flame out or are just average players at the big league level. That's why guys like John Halama kept finding a home even though you thought they were awful. Ratings maybe should be skewed a bit more towards current big leaguers (maybe remedy this by adjusting minor league league totals?). Last year Jon Lester was the talk of Boston, and now he's struggling to find his control in AAA-- some scouts are seriously doubting whether he'll recapture that AA magic from two years ago. As far as the Red Sox-- Wilton Veras, Michael Coleman, Brian Rose, Paxton Crawford, Juan Pena, Soo Woo Kim, Robinson Checo-- all guys who were studs in the minors but duds in the big leagues-- these are guys that if OOTP2007 was around 5-10 years ago, would be the cream of the crop (5 star potential) in the minors.

I haven't done enough fantasy sims to see if Markus' engine has the same problem, but it appears many people nowadays overrate these prospects and rush them along. People in this thread will say "WELL MY 3B GUY HAS 30 HR POTENTIAL SO BOOST HIM!" 30 homer potential is just that-- a CEILING. If you assume a players performance falls on a bell curve, odds are like 10% he'll reach that, and he's more likely to be a 15-20 HR guy with full season's experience.

I wish there was some function like a "flameout" option, or a way to slow the progress of some of these guys, but I don't see that trigger in the game. The best solution I can think of is tweak the minor league totals/percentages/etc. while lowering the potential ratings of many of the prospects.

Just something to keep in mind-- if you don't get what I'm saying, just ask questions and I'll try to answer them more succinctly...

[injury log]

Originally Posted by CubbyFan23

Wow IL -- great work on that, I was kind of dreading having to go through and find all those guys. Thanks for knocking that out for me!

No problem, Cubby. There are quite a few others, I fear- I think the easiest way to find them is to go to the 'Show All Players' tab in the Transactions menu, and sort batters by Overall rating or by Contact- doing this for the Majors, the International League and the Pacific Coast League. I don't think there's anyone rated 20 overall or higher in AA or below, with a small number of reasonable exceptions (Seth McClung, for example). A lot of the prospects have overalls equal or nearly equal to potential, and their current ratings should be knocked down a lot- guys like Andrew McCutchen, Jay Bruce, Colby Rasmus, Bill Rowell, etc are all big-league ready in the set even though they're playing in AA or below in real life. Virtually everyone in the IL or PCL with an Overall rating over 20 got promoted in my sim, and some of them surely wouldn't be in real life.

Interestingly, now that I know more of the players, I can figure out why some of the strange transactions happen. Nomar Garciaparra gets traded in every sim I do, and I'm sure it's because Olmedo Saenz is rated as an above average 1B/3B, so Nomar is replaceable. Jeff Weaver, Jarrod Washburn and Esteban Loaiza get released because they can be replaced with Robert Rohrbaugh, Renee Cortez and Jason Windsor respectively.

One other guy I left off the list- Emilio Bonifacio with Arizona- the guy is a blazer, but I don't think he can hit.

[jskipper]

Originally Posted by injury log

PIT
neil walker [AA, should be very poor at catcher]

Never heard anything bad about his catching, but that's beside the point cause he's now a full time 3B and there are zero plans to ever move him back, so his position should be changed to 3B. His experience at 3B should be really low (less than the 160/200 there is now), but all indications are that his range and ability at 3B will be fine.

Great work on the set everyone...you guys rule.

[injury log]

Originally Posted by jskipper

Never heard anything bad about his catching...

Fair point- I think the reports I'd read were on the pessimistic side. I did a quick google search, and there seem to be a lot of opinions on Walker's catcher defense, ranging from bad to average, some suggesting he has the potential to be good. His position change at his age reminds me of what happened with Michael Barrett in Montreal, who was, if I recall correctly, also told his move to third was permanent...

[injury log]

Originally Posted by czar21

I don't know how it works, and I haven't simmed long term (like 5 years out yet) but I think all minor leaguers might have to be knocked down a lot. It seems like ML teams can call up 5-6 guys who shouldn't be near a ML roster in the first year of the sim and they put up respectable numbers. I know everyone likes to think they're teams best prospect is going to be some kind of stud, but many times, they either flame out or are just average players at the big league level.
...
I haven't done enough fantasy sims to see if Markus' engine has the same problem, but it appears many people nowadays overrate these prospects and rush them along. People in this thread will say "WELL MY 3B GUY HAS 30 HR POTENTIAL SO BOOST HIM!" 30 homer potential is just that-- a CEILING. If you assume a players performance falls on a bell curve, odds are like 10% he'll reach that, and he's more likely to be a 15-20 HR guy with full season's experience.

I wish there was some function like a "flameout" option, or a way to slow the progress of some of these guys, but I don't see that trigger in the game. The best solution I can think of is tweak the minor league totals/percentages/etc. while lowering the potential ratings of many of the prospects.

I agree that many of the minor leaguers need their current ratings reduced (including the players I've listed in my posts above, along with several others). As for Potential ratings, however, the game's development engine already does a good job of ensuring many prospects flame out. The game will be especially harsh on young prospects (teenagers) and on guys with Overall ratings distant from Potential. On the whole, the 'collective potential' of the pool of prospects in the game will decline with time because the game reduces Potential more often than increases it. So underrating their Potential to ensure more flameouts probably isn't a good idea- you'll more likely end up with an undertalented league ten years down the line, and less differentiation among players.

Regardless, a 10-year sim with the set would be useful as a test. Perhaps something I'll try today...

[calcar]

I don't see Shannon Stewart or Paul Byrd anywhere.

[randomlefty10]

All stats normalized to 550 AB. All stats courtesy of BP and THT

Kenji Johjima -
Had 22 BBs in '06, on pace for 19 this year. Should have Patience reduced to ~50.
Avoid Ks should be bumped up a few points (to about 161). You have him at 54, he's been right at 50 the last two years.
Had 20 HRs in '06, on pace for 19 this year, in SafeCo as a dead-pull RHB. That's probably around 25 in a neutral park. Increase power to ~125.
I'd add a touch more gap power too as he's on pace for over 37 2Bs this year and again, in SafeCo Field.
Up his HBP rating to ~15. 13 last year, 6 already this year.
Catcher arm should be improved. Mariners have allowed only 32 stolen bases (2nd fewest in AL) and have thrown out 33% of would-be stealers.

Jamie Burke, maybe up his BABIP rate a bit? He's seemed adapt at hitting well in MLB, SSS though

Rob Johnson, I would up his defense a touch. That's what he's known for.

Bryan LaHair, outside of a two-week period last summer, he's never sustained any real power. I would consider his potential to be what you have listed as his overall ratings.

Richie Sexson, fair projection, but again, SafeCo effect, you have to up his power to get to neutral park numbers. I would say 143 in gap and 153 in power giving you 38 2Bs and 34 HRs. As to his defense, he has terrible range but is great at not committing errors and stopping wild throws.

Mike Morse, I'd raise his BABIP a tad so that he's like a .270 hitter now with .275 potential. His actual infield range is terrible. He cannot really play SS and he should have experience at 3B, which is what he plays now.

Jose Vidro, higher BABIP, lower power, keep his OPS about where it is.

Jose Lopez, current ratings pretty good, but needs a big boost in potential. The guy has sustained a career track that is a year or more ahead of Miguel Tejada and he plays in SafeCo, which saps his pull power. He should have about a 140 Gap and 130 power potential.

Adrian Beltre, not #69, he's #29. Needs the standard SafeCo adjustment for RH pull hitter. I'd raise gap and power about 3-5 points each and his BABIP a point or two.

Yuniesky Betancourt, not #84, he's #5. Needs his infield error knocked down a bit. He's always flubbed some routine plays, but his range is legit. I'd also knock down his patience potential a few points.

Raul Ibanez, BABIP up a few points to correct for SafeCo.

Adam Jones, should have some minimal experience in LF and RF. Also, guy has legit 30HR power. He's at 20 already in Chaney Stadium in Tacoma which might be worse than SafeCo for homeruns. I'd up the power potential to ~137. I'd also give him a slight boost in all his current ratings, pushing him closer to his potential.

Jason Ellison, probably rated a bit too high on offense. I'd knock him down a point or two across the board.

Wladimir Balentien, he's posting better numbers than Adam Jones in the same stadium so like Adam, he should be closer to his potential. Guy has crazy power, should be up to a 155 potential. He's taken HUGE strides in reading pitches, one scout was said to say it was the biggest single year of development he's seen in the last 10. His potential in that regard should be somewhere between 60 and 70, not 28.

Jose Guillen, can't tell how much is his bum ankles, but his range in the OF is terrible. I'd knock it down.

Ichiro Suzuki,
he's on pace to shatter the all-time record for putouts in CF, his range is crazy good, I'd up it close to max. Also should have full experience in RF given how much he's played there.
his BABIP needs to be higher, he's a career .333 hitter and is at .368 this year, he's not slowing down. Should be at ~155.
His power should be higher, he's good for 10 HR/yr in a neutral park (8+ in SafeCo). I'd raise it to ~60.

Felix Hernandez, he doesn't have a knuckle-curve, he does have a slider. Improve his control, at max potential, he's listed as walking 48 guys per 602 batters faced. For his career, he's walked 43 per 602 and one can only expect him to get better. However, his movement is way too high. He's allowed ~15 HR/s per 600 BF and playing in SafeCo dampens that number. Also, his velocity should be a tick higher, his 4-seamer sits at 97-98 when healthy.
I'd put his current ratings at this: 140-130-115
I'd put his potential ratings at this: 150-140-125
give or take a few points

Eric O'Flaherty, I'd up his potential ratings a bit. He's having a great season and he's only 22. Specifically, I'd give him more movement potential.

Sean Green's stuff rating is too low. He's got a new pitch and his K's have gone way up.

JJ Putz, more velocity, he sits high 90s.

Matt Tuiasosopo, he's re-established himself in AA this year. I'd raise his avoid Ks and power potential.

Brandon Morrow, I'd give him a few extra control potential points, maybe up to 80.

Greg Halman has insane power. He just cannot stop striking out. But his power potential should be something like 150. It's the best in the system. And his avoid K's, while it should be really really low, probably shouldn't be a 1. More like a 20 potential.

Austin Bibens-Dirkx needs potential boosts, he's playing in a launching pad in High Desert and holding his own. Plus his delivery will make him a great ROOGY. He's a true sidearmer with a lot of K potential to RHB. He should have extreme RHB/LHB splits.

Adam Moore needs more power potential.

Kameron Mickolio is currently in AAA and doing well. He needs a complete re-rate. He's probably going to see big-league action this year. His ceiling is about that of a solid MR, but his current ratings should reflect that of somebody who's doing fine in AAA.

Carlos Triunfel needs way more potential. 17 year olds just don't hit like that in the early months of the Midwest league. It's very cold up there April-June and he's facing a league average age around 20. Yeah he's raw, but he's the real deal. Power potential needs to be aligned with the rest of the potentials. He's an all-around player, if he follows through in development, his ceiling is ridiculously high, like consistent all-star high.

You're missing Mario Martinez, SS-OF.

[jskipper]

Originally Posted by injury log

ok, here are the high profile international signs from the winter 2006 signing period who aren't in the set (Triunfel is in there):

in rookie ball (complex leagues):
angel villalona 3b SF
engel beltre of BOS
balbino fuenmayor 3b TOR
euclides viloria lhsp SD
jason smit ss CLE
esmailyn gonzalez ss WAS
larry suarez rhsp CHIC

haven't played anywhere this year:
moises tejeda ss BOS
jesus montero c NYY
danilo alvarez rhsp ATL

I'd be happy to read up on these guys and rate them; let me know if that would be helpful.

I think this would be nice to have in the set if that's not already in the works, as well as the missing players in post #84. In the most recent release, how many prospects are rated? I thought it was top 10 for all but some have top 30...

[jskipper]

Shawn Chacon appears to be missing...about as crucial as the other bums mentioned.

[injury log]

Originally Posted by jskipper

I think this would be nice to have in the set if that's not already in the works, as well as the missing players in post #84. In the most recent release, how many prospects are rated? I thought it was top 10 for all but some have top 30...

I agree, and I've looked into many of the international signs from '06 that got 6 or 7-figure bonuses. Mario Martinez, who randomlefty points out is missing from the Mariners' minors, is another 6-figure international sign from 2006 ($600k bonus, one of the highest). So, I now have a more complete list of high-bonus international signs not currently in the set:

in lo-A
chih-hsien chiang, 2b/3b BOS

in rookie ball (complex leagues):
engel beltre of BOS
jairo heredia, sp, NYY
balbino fuenmayor 3b TOR [BA's no.10 prospect for Toronto]
po-yu lin, sp CWS
jason smit ss CLE
wang-wei lin, of MIN
young-il jung, sp, LAA [BA's no.4 prospect for the Angels]
mario martinez, ss/of SEA
emmanuel solis, 3b, TEX
wilmer font, sp TEX
esmailyn gonzalez ss WAS [BA's no 5 prospect for Washington]
larry suarez rhsp CHIC
euclides viloria lhsp SD
angel villalona 3b SF [BA's no. 3 prospect for SF]

haven't played anywhere this year:
moises tejeda ss BOS
jesus montero c NYY
carlos urena, of, NYY
jose pirela, ss, NYY
damian taveras, 3b NYY
jose tuossen, ss, NYY
josh wells, sp, TOR
rey lebron, cf, SEA
geuris grullon, sp TEX
chen-en hung, sp ATL
danilo alvarez rhsp ATL
dunieski rodriguez, sp ATL
ricardo ferrer, sp, COL

and there are a few from early 2007 as well, along with the latest ones from the new international signing period, which started today...

Cubby- I've got some good scouting notes on most of the above players, which should save somebody some research time if they want to rate these players for the set. Let me know if you'd find the info useful.

[gZusLuvsU15]

Some more bums that are missing...

Neifi Perez - SS (Detroit Tigers)
Chad Durbin - P (Detroit Tigers)

[ScottZ]

never mind...my question was already addressed

[calcar]

Originally Posted by injury log

I agree, and I've looked into many of the

haven't played anywhere this year:
moises tejeda ss BOS

Tejeda is with the GCL Red Sox.