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Old 09-14-2018, 05:30 PM   #1
Juggernt
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Oldest Random Talent Change?

What's the oldest player you've seen jump from mediocrity to superstar status ratings-wise? It's not something I've been tracking, but I'm curious. I see plenty of 19- or 20-year-olds go from 20 to 70 (on the 20-80 scale), but you wouldn't have players much older who were still around and that poorly-rated. Is there a chance for a 27-year-old journeyman (maybe a 45-50) to simply become a 75?
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Old 09-14-2018, 08:07 PM   #2
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I assume you mean potential rating as derived from under the hood metrics. (I assume under the hood is the same as the hidden OPS, speed, stealing, defense, FIP, etc.) not scouting ratings, so that's how I'll reply. Current ratings themselves, set up in a game portraying ratings based largely upon stats, can jump wildly, no matter what age, especially with imperfect scouting. I've had older players jump a lot in the current rating just from playing; not so for potential.

Assuming you mean under the hood, though, I have looked at a couple hundred players ratings. I also use the default TCR=100 setting. I've seen small ups and downs at every age level, but I've rarely if ever seen jumps like that in anyone after 18-22. (Even these are rare. I've had small changes up, a lot of downs, on my players in the 18-27 range, but no big increases at any age. On my newest team, for example, I had a player gain 39 points (out of 250) in speed, stealing, and bunting. That was the biggest improvement out of ~150 players in the last 3 years. Batters potential OPS and pitchers potential FIP have rarely changed, and if so, not as an improvement, but as a decline.) Most of the large OPS and FIP changes are declines and mostly because of injuries. I estimate 75% of the major declines are all due to injuries.

The remaining 25% that are declines (independent of any injuries) in the 18-30 range, I assume are TCR because there was no reported injury when it transpired. None of these "readings' are based on scout ratings, but on the under the hood metrics.

Of course, a pitcher might learn a great pitch which takes him out of mediocrity, so there's that chance, but again learning pitches is relative rare. I counted 16 pitches learned out of ~600 pitchers this past spring. (Forgot to check the ages!)

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Old 09-14-2018, 09:48 PM   #3
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Thanks for sharing that. I enjoy some of the under the hood stuff myself and it's pretty time consuming. This looks like one point of curiosity I can skip spending hours on in the future

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I assume you mean potential rating as derived from under the hood metrics. (I assume under the hood is the same as the hidden OPS, speed, stealing, defense, FIP, etc.) not scouting ratings, so that's how I'll reply. Current ratings themselves, set up in a game portraying ratings based largely upon stats, can jump wildly, no matter what age, especially with imperfect scouting. I've had older players jump a lot in the current rating just from playing; not so for potential.

Assuming you mean under the hood, though, I have looked at a couple hundred players ratings. I also use the default TCR=100 setting. I've seen small ups and downs at every age level, but I've rarely if ever seen jumps like that in anyone after 18-22. (Even these are rare. I've had small changes up, a lot of downs, on my players in the 18-27 range, but no big increases at any age. On my newest team, for example, I had a player gain 39 points (out of 250) in speed, stealing, and bunting. That was the biggest improvement out of ~150 players in the last 3 years. Batters potential OPS and pitchers potential FIP have rarely changed, and if so, not as an improvement, but as a decline.) Most of the large OPS and FIP changes are declines and mostly because of injuries. I estimate 75% of the major declines are all due to injuries.

The remaining 25% that are declines (independent of any injuries) in the 18-30 range, I assume are TCR because there was no reported injury when it transpired. None of these "readings' are based on scout ratings, but on the under the hood metrics.

Of course, a pitcher might learn a great pitch which takes him out of mediocrity, so there's that chance, but again learning pitches is relative rare. I counted 16 pitches learned out of ~600 pitchers this past spring. (Forgot to check the ages!)
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Old 09-16-2018, 01:11 PM   #4
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like a pitching learning a well-rated new pitch or getting there eventually... don't count on it.

i'm sure an older palyer can receive a large bump too, but if it's a reduced frequency due to age, i wouldn't be surprised, either.

'random' is in the name, but may not be 100% evenly applied in all contexts. i do think it is the main force though, so why not an oldie but goodie getting a bump... aging could reduce it before they even get back in season or get to use it, lol.
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Old 09-16-2018, 09:08 PM   #5
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The problem with veterans never getting talent bumps or resigned to always having their skills degrade once they hit about age 28 is it doesn't allow for the modeling of careers like Dwight Evans, who became a much better hitter post 30 than he was during his "prime".
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Old 09-16-2018, 10:37 PM   #6
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i bet he's rare even in RL, though.

it can happen in ootp. when you have ~30 teams, it's easy to miss oddities if it doesn't occur on your own team. if it's anywhere near the right proportion, that'd be a bonus for a small slice of the pie.
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Old 09-16-2018, 10:57 PM   #7
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i bet he's rare even in RL, though.

it can happen in ootp. when you have ~30 teams, it's easy to miss oddities if it doesn't occur on your own team. if it's anywhere near the right proportion, that'd be a bonus for a small slice of the pie.
Sure he's rare but not unheard of for players. A few other examples would be Ozzie Smith, Jose Bautista & Dante Bichette. If you explore the pitching side of things, you can find even more examples such as Jamie Moyer and Hoyt Wilhelm.
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Old 09-17-2018, 06:19 PM   #8
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I signed Alex Claudio in his age-34 season and he proceeded to have the best two years of his career, making his first two all-star games. His ratings are also slightly up (3.5 to 4.0 overall).
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Old 09-17-2018, 08:08 PM   #9
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Dave Pile is a curious case. His movement has dropped a bit, his stuff has held more or less steady but his control has been on a steady upward trajectory his whole career and has finally turned him into an elite pitcher in his late 30's. He won his first "pitcher of the year" award at age 39.

Note: this is 1924 and I have relative ratings off, so that Stuff rating of 39, while not elite, is still pretty good for the era.
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Old 09-18-2018, 03:41 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cobby View Post
Dave Pile is a curious case. His movement has dropped a bit, his stuff has held more or less steady but his control has been on a steady upward trajectory his whole career and has finally turned him into an elite pitcher in his late 30's. He won his first "pitcher of the year" award at age 39.

Note: this is 1924 and I have relative ratings off, so that Stuff rating of 39, while not elite, is still pretty good for the era.
Is that Scouting tab a new thing in OOTP19? Or is it a skin? I am yet to upgrade from OOTP18, just asking

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Old 09-18-2018, 05:16 PM   #11
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Is that Scouting tab a new thing in OOTP19? Or is it a skin? I am yet to upgrade from OOTP18, just asking

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It's a full screen on there. I don't have OOtP 18 but I assume it's new for 19.
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Old Today, 01:38 AM   #12
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An update from the curious case of Dave Pile:

He won the pitcher of the year again at age 40!

Then he blew out his elbow for a career-ending injury the following spring training.

Pretty fun. He started at age 26 and his two best seasons were age 39 and age 40! (he won the ERA title those two years too) Talk about a late-bloomer...
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