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OOTP 14 - Historical Simulations Discuss historical simulations and their results in this forum.

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Old 09-20-2013, 03:17 PM   #181
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Class of 2103 VBBWAA Selection: Wright...FINAL SELECTION

It is fitting for the final class to have an 89 year-old Unknown enter via the Vet Committee and a RL active player enter on the First Ballot Standard.

David Wright was chosen by the San Diego Jewels with the 7th overall pick in the 2080 draft.

He collected 204 hits in 154 games while batting .351 in 2081. Nice start.

In 2082 he won his first of 4 batting titles and led the Jewels to a World Series win. Wright is the only HOFer from this team.

In 2087 Wright won his 4th batting crown with a scalding career high .390. With an OBP of .468 and slg% .656 for a career high npa OPS+ of 205, the MVP, and his second career WS title. Again, he is the only member of the squad to enter the HOF.

Wright was an annual injury bug. In only three seasons out of a career that lasted through 2097 did he play in 150 games. However, he was consistently productive to the extreme.

A career slash line of 327/402/567 (30th, between Home Run Baker and Harry Heilmann/42nd/95th, one spot ahead of George Hendrick) produced 2143 hits, 387 HR, 1249 RBI and 1256 runs. He also stole 105 bases.

Wright enters the HOF 54th in career OPS.

Wright won two GGs at 3B and appeared on 10 AS rosters. He enters the HOF at the age of 42.

Black Ink: 22
Gray Ink: 141
HOFm: 198
HOFs: 65

Gorilla Composite: 4.4

------------------------------

Edwards and Wright are both entering their first OOTP HOF.

Notable players in the final draft pool include: Gates Brown, Babe Adams, Sammy Sosa, Deacon Phillipe, Nick Swisher, Dennis Leonard, Taffy Wright, and Jim Fregosi.

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Old 09-20-2013, 03:45 PM   #182
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Final Hall Chart

What was viewed at the 'halfway point" continued through the completion of the league. Scalloping of scores was not seen, here, as they were in previous run throughs.

The mean score is 3.8, most closely represented by Kevin Mitchell (plot 102).

The median score is 3.3, represented by Nate Colbert (plot 116) and Tommy Bridges (plot 51).

The values for the Gorilla Composite are generated based on RL scores which are normalized amongst themselves. This leads to a skew. The RL mean will be 4.0, because that is how the score is defined, and that definition is used to generate the scores, here, in a different environment.

Now that the league has completed, the scores for this HOF can be normalized to create a mean of 4.0, which will allow the scores of these careers to be directly comparable to the RL scores. That will come later.

ADD: Note the regularity of plots above the 6 line, once the early entries have occurred.
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Old 09-20-2013, 04:19 PM   #183
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Second Half All Time Great Team

Using the same method I used for the first half ( http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...-rl-hof-6.html ) I put together the greatest team from the second half inductees.

C: Mike Piazza
1B: Willie McCovey
2B: Roberto Alomar
3B: Mike Schmidt
SS: Eddie Collins Sr*
LF: Frank Howard
CF: Willie Mays
RF: Stan Musial
PH/DH: Hal Trosky Sr

SP: Charlie J Fergson
SP: Bobby Mathews
SP: Steve Carlton
SP: Hal Newhouser
SP: Ed Walsh
Cl: Tom Henke
SU: Lefty Wolf
BP: Nolan Ryan
BP: Pedro J Martinez
BP: Eppa Rixey

Bench -
Joe Adcock (1B/OF)
Tim Jordan (C)**
Ron Santo (IF)
Home Run Baker(IF/OF)
Hank Greenberg (1B/OF)
Lou Gehrig (1B/OF)

* Eddie Collins Sr entered as a 2Bman, but no SS entered the HOF in the second half. Collins played over 900 games there, in the simulation, so he shifted over and the only other 2Bman to enter in the second half, Alomar, took his spot.

**Tim Jordan played the most games at catcher in the simulation of any bench player (8), so he gets back-up backstop duties.
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Old 09-20-2013, 11:54 PM   #184
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Final Batting Leaders

Ruth, Thome, and Crawford are career leaders who were still active when the league concluded. Joe Morgan had retired, but was not yet eligible for HOF consideration, when the league concluded.
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Old 09-21-2013, 12:00 AM   #185
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Final Pitching Leaders

O'Neil and Corbett are career leaders who were still active when the league concluded. Hugh Campbell did not earn 10yrs ML service times and was, therefore, not eligible for HOF consideration.

All other career leaders are in the HOF (as are all unmentioned career hitting leaders, previously).
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Old 09-21-2013, 02:10 PM   #186
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The All Time Great HOF Team

Now that the run is complete, I can adjust the various scores to the hitting and pitching populations of the Hall and have the scores, here, relative to themselves, instead of to the RL HOF.

I chart with this adjusted distribution will follow (as soon as I make it).

Using the adjusted scores, which result in a mean GC of 4.0 (as the RL HOF has a mean GC of 4.0), the all time great team of this league, comprised of HOFers is:

C: Mike Piazza
1B: Willie McCovey
2B: Larry Doyle
3B: Mike Schmdt
SS: Kevin Mitchell
LF: Barry Bonds
CF: Willie Mays
RF: Hank Aaron
DH/PH: Shoeless Joe Jackson

SP: Toad Ramsey
SP: Walter Johnson
SP: Rube Waddell
SP: Charlie J Ferguson
SP: Lefty Grove
CL: Alex Serrano
SU: Ben Tincup
BP: Bobby Mathews
BP: Randy Johnson
BP: Carl Hubbell

Bench -

Stan Musial (OF/1B)
Don Mincher (1B)
Eddie Collins (2B/SS)
Sam Crawford (OF/1B)
Nap Lajoie (2B/1B/SS/OF)
Gary Carter (C)
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Old 09-21-2013, 04:08 PM   #187
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Pitchers in HOF

Edgar Barnhart
Bert Blyleven
Tommy Bridges
Jim Bunning
Britt Burns
Steve Carlton
Percy Coleman
Wilbur Cooper
George Davies
Unknown Edwards
Red Ehret
Bob Feller
Charlie J Ferguson
Lou Galvin
Lefty Grove
Bill Hawke
Tom Henke
Carl Hubbell
Randy D Johnson
Walter Johnson
Josh Johnson
Tim Keefe
Clayton Kershaw
Matt Kilroy
Sandy Koufax
Francisco Liriano
Pedro J Martinez
Bobby Mathews
Unknown McDoolan
Willie McGill
Doc McJames
Sadie McMahon
George Mohart
John H Murphy
Mike Mussina
Hal Newhouser
David Price
Toad Ramsey
Eppa Rixey
Amos Rusie
Nolan Ryan
CC Sabathia
Curt Schilling
Herb Score
Alex Serrano
John Smoltz
Jim St Vrain
Huston Street
Don Sutton
Ben Tincup
Dazzy Vance
Johnny Vander Meer
Rube Waddell
Ed Walsh
Jim Whitney
Lefty Wolf
Early Wynn
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Old 09-21-2013, 04:09 PM   #188
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Hitters in HOF

Hank Aaron
Joe Adcock
Tommie Agee
Roberto Alomar
Home Run Baker
Albert Belle
Barry Bonds
Bobby Bonilla
George Brett
Dan Brouthers
Smoky Burgess
George H Burns
Miguel Cabrera
Vin Campbell
Jose Canseco
Gary Carter
Cesar Cedeno
Orlando Cepeda
Ron Cey
Hal Chase
Will Clark
Jack Clark
Nate Colbert
Eddie Collins Sr
Gavvy Cravath
Sam Crawford
Eric Davis
George Davis
Mike Donlin
Larry Doyle
Steve Evans
Prince Fielder
Carlton Fisk
Lou Gehrig
Jim Gentile
Hank Greenberg
Ken Griffey Jr
Wayne Gross
Jim Ray Hart
Richie Hebner
Adeiny Hechavarria
Harry Heilmann
George Hendrick
Dick Hoblitzell
Gil Hodges
Bob Horner
Ryan Howard
Frank Howard
Kent Hrbek
Reggie Jackson
Shoeless Joe Jackson
Chipper Jones
Tim Jordan
Al Kaline
Benny Kauff
Charlie Keller
Harmon Killebrew
Ralph Kiner
Dave Kingman
Ryan Klesko
Ed Konetchy
Nap Lajoie
Hans Lobert
Javy Lopez
Fred Luderus
Harry Lumley
Mickey Mantle
John Mayberry Sr
Willie Mays
Mike J McCormick
Willie McCovey
John J McGraw
Fred McGriff
Mark McGwire
Ken McMullen
Hack Miller
Don Mincher
Kevin Mitchell
Johnny Mize
Dale Murphy
Red Murray
Stan Musial
Graig Nettles
Dan O'Connor
Ben Oglivie
Al Oliver
Jim H O'Rourke
Rafael Palmeiro
Tony Perez
Rico Petrocelli
Mike Piazza
Manny Ramirez
Jim Rice
Jackie Robinson
Frank Robinson
Alex Rodriguez
Jimmy Rollins
John Romano
Pete Rose Sr
Al Rosen
Joe Rudi
Vic Saier
Pablo Sandoval
Ron Santo
Mike Schmidt
Gary Sheffield
George Sisler
Bill Skowron
Duke Snider
Willie Stargell
Gorman Thomas
Joe Torre
Hal Trosky Sr
Mike Trout
Tim Wallach
Bob Watson
Bill D White
Eddie Williams
Billy L Williams
David Wright
Jim Wynn
Eddie Yost
Dutch Zwilling
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Old 09-21-2013, 06:13 PM   #189
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Where I am at

Have yet to paste together the data for the normalized chart, but I have a minute to bang this note out.

The HOF process I love. I will tweek the MVP/CYA value to give added weight to CYA and reducing the MVP for HOFm calculations since OOTP does not allow pitchers to win MVP.

Also, the First Ballot selection process, while not changing, will result in fewer players actually entering in their first year of eligibility. The end result will be the same, but the number of players entering in their first year of eligibility was not reflecting RL.

Aside from that, the algorithm is ready to go.

I have enlisted the help of a programmer friend (who has tolerated my incessant ramblings about this project over the last year) to be my code monkey (a term of endearment, not derision).

Work has started on automating the contraction process. That is simpler than the HOF algorithm, so I thought it was best to get this operational before getting into the HOF code. My friend does not play baseball sims, but is kind enough to offer assistance to me, here. I am taking it faster than Sammy Sosa forgets English in front of Congress.

I will post the normalized chart and a few other things. Then, I will get back to playing this game.
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Old 09-22-2013, 07:49 PM   #190
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Final Chart Normalized

The previous chart had the GC mean at 3.8. The normalization process added value to all pitcher's categories and to the Ink of the hitters. The HOFm/s for the hitters were reduced in value. The process brought the GC mean to 4.0 (which is where it should be, by definition).

We see the plots elevated, and some more spread to the plots, vertically.

The league ran 99 years. 2 players, Aaron and Ramsey, had GCs over 10 (plots 1 and 3). I will label them "Once in a Lifetime" players.

4 others had GCs over 8: Shoeless Joe Jackson (plot 80), Willie Mays (plot 159), Walter Johnson (plot 67) and Willie McCovey (plot 178). These can be labeled "Once in a Generation Players".

The player that best represents the mean is Eppa Rixey (plot 148).

The median score is 3.5 and is represented by George H Burns and Jim Ray Hart (plots 92 and 11).

Previous median scorers Tommy Bridges has moved up to the 68th spot on the GC list and Nate Colbert has moved down to the 105th spot.
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Old 09-22-2013, 08:16 PM   #191
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Top 40 man roster based on normalized GC

Just for fun, I decided to make a 40 man roster out of the top GC scorers. I am taking the 25 players posted above and then adding the next 15 highest scorers without regard to position.

C: Mike Piazza
1B: Willie McCovey
2B: Larry Doyle
3B: Mike Schmdt
SS: Kevin Mitchell
LF: Barry Bonds
CF: Willie Mays
RF: Hank Aaron
DH/PH: Shoeless Joe Jackson

SP: Toad Ramsey
SP: Walter Johnson
SP: Rube Waddell
SP: Charlie J Ferguson
SP: Lefty Grove
CL: Alex Serrano
SU: Ben Tincup
BP: Bobby Mathews
BP: Randy Johnson
BP: Carl Hubbell

Bench -

Stan Musial (OF/1B)
Don Mincher (1B)
Eddie Collins (2B/SS)
Sam Crawford (OF/1B)
Nap Lajoie (2B/1B/SS/RF)
Gary Carter (C)

Reserve Players:

Tim Jordan (1B)
Mickey Mantle (OF/1B)
Joe Adcock (1B/LF)
Orlando Cepeda (1B/OF)
Chipper Jones (3B/ LF/SS)
Frank Howard (OF/1B)
Lou Gehrig (1B/RF)
Dave Kingman (1B/OF)
Hank Greenberg (1B/LF)
Hal Trosky Sr (1B)
Fred McGriff (1B)
Willie Stargell (1B/OF)

Sandy Koufax (SP)
Hal Newhouser (SP)
Steve Carlton (SP)


The secondary positions listed for bench and reserve players are positions at which the player appeared at least 100 times in his simulated career. If a player made 100 appearances at multiple OF positions, he is listed as an OFer, not a specific OF position.

Last edited by VanillaGorilla; 09-23-2013 at 05:02 PM. Reason: Trosky replaces Stragell, Stargell replaces Vance
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Old 09-22-2013, 09:47 PM   #192
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40 Man Roster from Bottom GC Scorers

I did the same process for filing the 25/40 man roster, but started from the bottom of the list, instead of the top, to see what sort of squad would come up.

C: Smoky Burgess
1B: Dan O'Connor
2B: Jimmy Rollins
3B: John J McGraw
SS: Rico Petrocelli
LF: Charlie Keller
CF:Tommie Agee
RF: Benny Kauff
DH/PH: Eddie Yost

SP: Lou Galvin
SP: Josh Johnson
SP: Early Wynn
SP: Unknown Edwards
SP: Percy Coleman
CL: Huston Street
SU: Unknown McDoolan
BP: Edgar Barnhart
BP: George Mohart
BP: Lefty Wolf

Bench -

Mike J McCormick (3B/SS)
Joe Rudi (OF/1B)
Mike Trout (CF)
Wayne Gross (3B/2B/RF)
Jackie Robinson (2B/3B/1B)
John Romano (C)




Reserve -
Eric Davis (OF)
Gil Hodges (1B/C/LF)
Jim Wynn (OF/SS)
Eddie Williams (3B/1B)
Manny Ramirez (OF)
Alex Rodriguez (3B/SS)
Bob Watson (1B/LF)
Ben Oglivie (OF/1B)
Ron Cey (3B/SS)
Miguel Cabrera (3B/1B/RF)
Bill D White (1B/OF)
Al Oliver (OF/1B)
Adeiny Hechavarria (3B/SS/2B)


Tom Henke (RP)
Don Sutton (SP)

I wonder how these teams would fare against each other?
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Old 10-02-2013, 04:30 AM   #193
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I would just like to point out.....

The winner of the 163rd game on Monday and the NL WC game (Tuesday) are both HOFers, here.

With this in mind, don't bet against Clayton Kershaw.

David Price (note the mention of John Smoltz, who called the TB/TEX game...big smile on that, from me)

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...ml#post3573085

Nelson Liriano

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...ml#post3560276

Last edited by VanillaGorilla; 10-02-2013 at 04:31 AM.
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Old 07-29-2014, 05:04 PM   #194
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Bump for 15 Forum reference
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