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Old 05-15-2019, 10:18 AM   #1
sdoug78
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Auto adjust LTM's for accuracy?

I have a question on the Auto adjust LTM's for accuracy.

I have set up a fictional league starting in 1871 and would like the stats to roughly follow the historical stats from that period and evolve naturally, again following a similar path to the RL MLB stats. My fictional league is 162 games per season so overall totals will be far greater than RL 1871 stats but i would like the averages to follow RL stat patterns and evolutions.

At the setup of my league i set the LTM's to 1871 and in my first season they are pretty accurate with the RL stats from then, but the question is at the end of each season do i need to tick the box for the auto adjust LTM's?

Will these modify the stats each season to follow the RL evolution or do i need to manually enter the year i want the LTM's to be in the off season each season?

And what would be the result of not ticking the auto adjust LTM's box and just leaving the LTM's? Would they remain at a constant regardless of how many years played or do they create their own fictional modifiers each year based upon your leagues previous years stats?
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Old 05-16-2019, 11:49 AM   #2
NoOne
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Yes, as long as you have "Historical Year" value in stats and AI matching up to current year in leauge and want to follow history, it will auto-import historical values and pretty sure it re-calculates teh modifiers at that time. still a good idea to check occasionally if you league results look fairly normal.

verify that there isn't a checkbox in that area -- make sure nothing disables that auto-import of historical stuff. will be apparent in the gui.

think of it this way, even if oversimplified.

the League Totals and some of the drop-down boxes on the left will control the "target baseline" for lack of a better word.

it's only a baseline if the League Modifiers match up for that target baseline. Both are equally important as far as what statistical results you see.

if you 'Autocaclulate' the modifiers before the season begin, then your league in that 1 year should be very close to those values -- size of league will affect volatility for obvious reasons. funky scheduling could too, in some contexts. in a 30-team mlb league looking at all 30teams and not 1 sub-league, it's going to be pretty close to those total for something to compare.

if talent levels remain exactly the same and in the same distribution, then you can expect consistent results each year with whatever volatility is built into the game relative to ~750+ players rolling the dice hundreds of thousands of times throughout the year.

I think of LTM and LT as setting the physics, even though it's just a probability engine and only indirectly incorporates physics into what's going on in the video game (probabilities for various things already includes it, for example)

as players change or whatever changes to anything else that could possibly affect statistical results will also cause an ebb and flow of said results.

if you autocalculate every year, it will be very flat results -- every year being similar.

it won't be perfectly calibrated after an 'autocalculate' either... depending on what you want, especially.

one tidbit about change -- any transition will cause some drift or a good reason to re-autocalculate modifiers. e.g. transitioning from real players to fictional and expanding league or changing any number of settings are just a couple examples of what can cause a shift in stats.

whether you want it to happen on its own or control how it happens is upto you. difficult to assume what any individual wants here. so, even if an example i give isn't what you want, the concepts and relationships can be re-used to get what you want.

couple methods of honing modifiers. you could use one of a few spreadsheets available in forums to help out. i have one that with a modicum of spreadsheet experience is easily tailored to any # of years of exported data and gives rough suggestions for modifiers. very hands-off except for adjusting work table.

anyway, you can either use a ton of data to account for player talent changes over a long period of time and find a 'true' set of LTM that will make the Totals a real baseline for your league. talent changes and whatever else will be the only effect on those results from year-to year.

or, you could just autocalculate one year, then adjust if you see any particular stat out-of-whack as you go.

the latter is also a better strategey if you intend to expand, or using historical players/real players that will transition to fictional... or even historical play in general.. simply too much effort to figure out a set of modifiers every 15-30 years when an era changes (=> new totals, require new modifiers -- plus, player creation is different each era too, double whammy there)

most will opt for #2, it may be less precise, but you really won't notice if the long-term BA is .255 or .259 in too many individual years. looking over league records after 100years will show some differences, though.

e.g. a ".259" ba league will more likely produce a ~.400 hitter, for example. or, you may have X% more 3000hitters etc...

google

ltm spreadsheet site:www.ootpdevelopments.com

you'll find my spreadsheet quickly enough. there are others out there too, but i think they require you to input the statistical data, which is just going to give you cramps in your fingers, lol. if you have some experience with spreadsheets and the type of personality that wants that sort of precision, check it out.

the suggested LTM values are only accurate if you change 1 at a time. if you change multiple modifiers, you'll want to do some math in your head.

e.g. if you increase HR by ~100 through the mods (the suggestion), then you need to adjust any other stat that is affected by fewer HR. BABIP will be altered, and those new ~100hr were proportionately an out, single, double or 3b outcome before. each of those will need to be adjusted accordingly to maintain existing results after adding 100hr.

you can see who it can get complicated if trying to change all or many LTM at once. it's all part of the same 'whole.' squeeze over here, and something bulges out over there.

Last edited by NoOne; 05-16-2019 at 11:55 AM.
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