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Old 08-13-2018, 12:16 AM   #1
Cobby
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Bingo for the HOF!

The AI doesn't seem to care for Bingo Morris. I was expecting him to be a first-ballot HOFer. But the AI begs to differ and he's at about 25% now on his second try.

He's a 7-time MVP. He's a 16-time all-star. Lifetime BA of .359 (would put him second only to Ty Cobb on RL Baseball's all-time list). 3591 career hits (5th for RL baseball), 596 doubles (good for 18th on the RL baseball list), 212 triples (8th all-time RL Baseball), 93.1 career WAR (all the way down to 29th all-time (but everyone above him is either still active, in the RL HOF or Barry Bonds).

So. It must be the HRs. 54 career home runs. But this 1911. It's the dead ball era. If you hit 10 or more home runs you're in contention for the home run title. With all those doubles and triples, he still ends up with a slugging percentage of .477 (certainly not disqualifying for a HOFer: better than Honus Wagner, better than Roberto Clemente, better than Jackie Robinson...)

And he was also a great guy. Personality type was captain, with high leadership and work ethic.

So what gives? I'm guessing the AI is not adjusting for era and docking him unfairly for his lack of home run power. But maybe I've got something messed up with the milestones - I haven't paid attention to those. Or something?
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Old 08-13-2018, 06:53 AM   #2
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In my league, Cy Young did not make the HOF. He was on a mediocre team so his W/L record is just a little above .500. So far 1901-1915 only one player (Rube Waddell) has been voted in. I need to double check or adjust my milestone ratings.
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Old 08-13-2018, 08:06 AM   #3
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Well, writers ~shrug~ what you gonna do?

Seriously though, I haven't paid much attention to this aspect of OOTP. What's the competition like?
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Old 08-13-2018, 10:38 AM   #4
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Maybe he was a secret Confederate sympathizer.
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Old 08-13-2018, 10:49 AM   #5
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Quote:
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Maybe he was a secret Confederate sympathizer.


Knelt for the anthem?


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Old 08-13-2018, 10:51 AM   #6
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With numbers like that he should certainly be making it in. The JAWS/Ink/HOF scores are primarily used to get AI votes, and he ranks highly in all of them.

It's possible that something weird happened in his first year of eligibility - if a player has a low voting total we intentionally depress future years to that baseline, so that we don't have Bonds/Clemens get inducted with 99% of votes the first year in the standard game. But I have no idea what might have gone wrong in his case.
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Old 08-13-2018, 05:20 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt Arnold View Post
With numbers like that he should certainly be making it in. The JAWS/Ink/HOF scores are primarily used to get AI votes, and he ranks highly in all of them.

It's possible that something weird happened in his first year of eligibility - if a player has a low voting total we intentionally depress future years to that baseline, so that we don't have Bonds/Clemens get inducted with 99% of votes the first year in the standard game. But I have no idea what might have gone wrong in his case.
OK. I think I have a better idea what's going on - but something still doesn't seem right. What I do for each version of OOTP is to do an Alternate Reality fictional league starting in 1871 and continuing to the modern era. I keep fairly close to real-life history as far as stats go. That means that pitchers dominate the stats in the early going. In the very early days the schedule is 60 games with a one-man rotation, so pitchers rack up lots of wins and lots of WAR even if they aren't very good compared to their peers. It's not too unusual to have a 100 WAR pitcher from those years with a ERA+ below 100.

So if I start the HOF immediately, a lot of these mediocre pitchers make it in and almost no hitters (they can't accumulate much HOF goodness playing only 60 games/year in the deadball era). My solution last year was to wait until 1910 to start the hall-of-fame and temporarily set the eligibility to unlimited. That seemed to work OK. By then most of those mediocre pitchers had been surpassed and there were enough 154-game seasons to have a few hitters piling up some decent stats.

That's what I did this time around. But I suppose there were still enough good pitchers to dilute the vote and Bingo only got 20% or so, dooming him in future years due to the anchoring mechanism that Matt described.

So I'm still struggling to figure out how to get the HOF off to a good start in this situation. I had a few ideas:

One would be to not set the eligibility to unlimited and thereby only include players that retired in the last 10 years (1900 or later if I start in 1910). Then maybe the first class won't be so swamped with pitchers. Then I'd have declare myself to be the veteran's committee and manually put in anyone pre-1900 that I felt had been passed over.

Or. Maybe if I set the number of votes up to 20 that fist year, someone like Bingo would get a higher percentage on the first try.

Or maybe I start a bit earlier, say 1900 and get a lot of the early pitchers out of the pool before the hitters in the 154-game period start to retire.

Anyway. I suppose I'll try one of those options next year. As for this year's results, there's still one more puzzlement. Here's the only position player to make it in so far. Bingo Morris beats Harry Goldberg in almost every stat, except home runs and doubles and SLG (very close on slugging percentage) . He also wins on all of the HOF categories but one. Yet Goldberg got 60% on his first try while Morris was in the low 20's and Goldberg made it in on his second try. I can't figure why Goldberg would be rated so much higher than Morris by the AI...
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Old 08-13-2018, 07:04 PM   #8
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Well, you also have the obvious ability to just induct whoever the hell you want as commissioner...
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Old 08-13-2018, 07:32 PM   #9
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Well, you also have the obvious ability to just induct whoever the hell you want as commissioner...

Yeah, I know. That sort of takes the fun out of it though. I like the anticipation of wondering who's going to make it in. And I also actually like a little bit of hall of fame controversy. I just want the controversy to make a little sense...
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Old 08-13-2018, 07:48 PM   #10
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I have my HOF stuff off until I get to at least the 1930's, maybe 1940's
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This just feels more like waiting in line at the Department of Motor Vehicles.

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