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Old 01-31-2018, 07:32 AM   #61
David Watts
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Here is the league the Santo/Rolen screenshots are from
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Old 01-31-2018, 07:46 AM   #62
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Now here is an example of 1 year recalc working like it should. This is from the very same league as the Santo/Rolen screenshots. This looks great. But, in the end, if development and recalc can't work together in a realistic fashion, historical and random debut are pretty much cooked. Afterall, it's a given that nothing will ever be done to improve the real lineups/real transaction features.
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Old 01-31-2018, 08:46 AM   #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt Arnold View Post
When you run these:
-What do you get for your modifiers?
-What does the historical sim accuracy tab show?

The only thing I can guess at is that the league modifiers are really screwing up given the talent disparity that you see in random debug leagues. Especially when using years well into the past, that really skews the averages for K, BB, and HR. So it's not too surprising that someone like Santo can hit .360+ when he hits 41 HR and only strikes out 58 times. Although I guess even that is running a .360 BABIP or so, which is still crazy high...
My issue isn't with Santo hitting .360+,(although overall you have to admit .350 and higher is way way too common when playing OOTP18. When 250 or more hits is an every year occurrence, I think averages approaching .400 become pedestrian Pumpkin accomplishments) my issue is with him stringing together 7+ seasons all well above .300. .369, .361, .338, .306, .329, .330, .324, that's the run Santo put together in a league using 1 year recalc. Something is broken there. I have guys over achieve all the time in my current OOTP16 random debut. Boog Powell comes to mind. Boog has hit for a higher average than normal, several times, but he does so for a season or 2. He doesn't string together more than a half decade of monster seasons like Santo. Seeing guys over achieve is what makes the game fun. One of the main reasons I love random debut so much is I'm not constantly running to real stats to compare my replay to reality. Random is a blast because you never find yourself checking if a guy is playing way more than he did in real life. That being said, I want baseball careers that resemble real baseball careers. I want 200 hits to mean something like 200 hits means something in real life. Right now, I would have to say when using OOTP18, 230 hits is the benchmark if not 240.

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Old 01-31-2018, 10:05 AM   #64
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I know all of us are grasping at straws, so I can see why it's easy to blame things on random debut. But, here's a straight historical(the one Galarraga managed to get 277 hits in) and as you can see it's all green. In this thread in an earlier post, I compared the individual hit seasons of this league compared to history, so if you'd like go back and look. This is the actual years of 84-94, so it's not a random talent distribution thing.
Attachment 534237
On this screen, green doesn't mean too much offense and red mean too little. That's what the + and - values are for. And as you can see the plus and minus values are pretty evenly distributed for the most part.

Green signifies that the stats are within a statistically reasonable margin of error (1 standard deviation iirc, though I could be wrong about that) and red indicates that they're further off than that (could be either too high or too low). So green is a good thing. It means the total stats are reasonably close to real life. Red is the warning that something is farther off than it should be.
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Old 01-31-2018, 10:08 AM   #65
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Now that being said, especially in the second screenshot the hitting stats are coming up on the plus side of the ledger a bit more than the minus side.

Not by margins that are far enough off to make them red, but maybe still too consistently. So that will definitely add up over time and even being off by that much consistently will tend to lead toward the sort of results you're seeing. I don't think it explains the margins you're seeing in individual players, so there's certainly something else at work here, but this might be a small contributing factor.
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Old 01-31-2018, 10:13 AM   #66
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Quote:
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This screen isn't really showing any major issues. Nor is the other league history screen you posted.

On this screen, green doesn't mean too much offense and red mean too little. That's what the + and - values are for. And as you can see the plus and minus values are pretty evenly distributed for the most part.

Green signifies that the stats are within a statistically reasonable margin of error (1 standard deviation iirc, though I could be wrong about that) and red indicates that they're further off than that (could be either too high or too low). So green is a good thing. It means the total stats are reasonably close to real life. Red is the warning that something is farther off than it should be.
Exactly, so why does Santo string together 7 years of monster stardom? How does he do that if recalc is working?

Also in this league Ralph Garr had a season in which he had 267 hits. He did have 219 and 214 in two separate real life seasons, but isn't 267 a little bit of a stretch?
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Old 01-31-2018, 10:29 AM   #67
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I do want to stress this point as well. I did this quick sim with 1 year recalc. Development off completely. This overall would not be one bit of fun if I was actually playing and not fast simming. Just as expected, guys that run out of recalc years, basically repeat their last season over and over again. . The screenshot of Machado somewhat shows that, but his entire career really shows it. And what purpose on OPRAH's green earth do historical minors and Negro Leagues serve if you can't combine recalc and development?

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Old 01-31-2018, 10:33 AM   #68
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Exactly, so why does Santo string together 7 years of monster stardom? How does he do that if recalc is working?

Also in this league Ralph Garr had a season in which he had 267 hits. He did have 219 and 214 in two separate real life seasons, but isn't 267 a little bit of a stretch?
It's a bit of a stretch in both cases, but when you're working with real math and not fudging things to force predetermined outcomes, like we are, you're going to get outliers. Some guys will outperform their real life numbers and some will underperform them. It can be by pretty significant amounts just through randomness. That's just normal.

So yes, 267 is a bit of a stretch for Garr, but its not inherently mathematically suspect, it just means he got really lucky one year.

Santo is a bit more of a puzzler though.

What does the seasonal individual hits leaderboard look like in either of those leagues?
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Old 01-31-2018, 10:37 AM   #69
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Now that being said, especially in the second screenshot the hitting stats are coming up on the plus side of the ledger a bit more than the minus side.

Not by margins that are far enough off to make them red, but maybe still too consistently. So that will definitely add up over time and even being off by that much consistently will tend to lead toward the sort of results you're seeing. I don't think it explains the margins you're seeing in individual players, so there's certainly something else at work here, but this might be a small contributing factor.
I had another comment that somehow got lost and not posted, but when I actually averaged the percentages for the second league, it turned out hits and 2bs averaged out almost exactly at 0 for the course of the league. 3bs I forget, that got lost in the lost post, but I think they were actually slightly less than in reality.

HR's were more, but that was entirely due to 1963 and 1964 being outliers. Take those two years out and HR's were also almost exactly neutral.

So on reflection, I don't think there's an issue with the league totals at all, they're actually almost eerily accurate!
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Old 01-31-2018, 10:46 AM   #70
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A lot of this is me rambling, so I know it probably sounds like the spewing of a nut job. But, I play out my games. Well, I should say I watch a game a day. I watch the entire post season. I don't sim when I'm actually playing a league. The only time I fast sim is when I'm trying to prove a point. I have played 18 1/2 seasons this way in my current random league. Back before 17 came out, I had a league that I played 36 seasons, watching a game a day. One thing I know 16 does from playing it so much is, it tends to even a guy out over the course of a season. So, if a guy gets off to a monster start, you can expect him to have a few bumps in the road as the season progresses. I don't know if 18 is doing this. In the case of Santo, if he had bumps that brought him down, he had to be hitting at Babe Ruth pace for huge parts of the season. It's almost like the game is hell bent on creating outliers or super heroes. As we can see by the green the league isn't drastically off from real life, it's just allowing for certain players to perform way above their real life abilities and when they do so, it's almost like the game decides to ignore recalc and throw reality to the wolves.
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Old 01-31-2018, 10:56 AM   #71
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It's a bit of a stretch in both cases, but when you're working with real math and not fudging things to force predetermined outcomes, like we are, you're going to get outliers. Some guys will outperform their real life numbers and some will underperform them. It can be by pretty significant amounts just through randomness. That's just normal.

So yes, 267 is a bit of a stretch for Garr, but its not inherently mathematically suspect, it just means he got really lucky one year.

Santo is a bit more of a puzzler though.

What does the seasonal individual hits leaderboard look like in either of those leagues?
I'm at work, so I can't check. But, early in this thread, I detail several leagues in regards to hits for a single season. I compared several different OOTP leauges to the history of MLB, 1877 to current day. If you want to go look, you will see that OOTP18 is producing 230-277 hit season on a way higher base than reality.

Make sure you read the part about my OOTP16 league (1947-1964) having Hal Chase reach 232 hits during this period and how Tommy Davis had the high (230) same corresponding years in real life.

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Old 01-31-2018, 11:01 AM   #72
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A lot of this is me rambling, so I know it probably sounds like the spewing of a nut job. But, I play out my games. Well, I should say I watch a game a day. I watch the entire post season. I don't sim when I'm actually playing a league. The only time I fast sim is when I'm trying to prove a point. I have played 18 1/2 seasons this way in my current random league. Back before 17 came out, I had a league that I played 36 seasons, watching a game a day. One thing I know 16 does from playing it so much is, it tends to even a guy out over the course of a season. So, if a guy gets off to a monster start, you can expect him to have a few bumps in the road as the season progresses. I don't know if 18 is doing this. In the case of Santo, if he had bumps that brought him down, he had to be hitting at Babe Ruth pace for huge parts of the season. It's almost like the game is hell bent on creating outliers or super heroes. As we can see by the green the league isn't drastically off from real life, it's just allowing for certain players to perform way above their real life abilities and when they do so, it's almost like the game decides to ignore recalc and throw reality to the wolves.
We don't adjust stats/outcomes to force anything. We didn't in 16, and we don't now, either up or down, to get results close to "accurate" or to create outliers or anything. The natural results are wild enough that we don't need to force anything.

The key point to remember, though, is that the recalc simply massages ratings before the season, and then we run through the season. And if you play with adjusting the modifiers, we do that on a global level, but don't look in depth. So in some of these cases, it could be a couple teams that end up with no pitching, and maybe guys feasted on them.

As you said, the overall numbers are pretty close to on par, but there's certainly something causing the skew in players to cause results to run quite high for some players. I don't know what that might be, but it would certainly be great if we could track down what it was, whether it's the ratings, the modifiers, the teams, or what.
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Old 01-31-2018, 11:26 AM   #73
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I would like to say thanks to y'all for at least listening. I guess in many ways I'm now officially one of those 6.5 guys, only it's 16 I can't move past. Ugh, I will probably spend the rest of my days yelling "hey you kids, get off my lawn."
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Old 01-31-2018, 04:28 PM   #74
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We don't adjust stats/outcomes to force anything. We didn't in 16, and we don't now, either up or down, to get results close to "accurate" or to create outliers or anything. The natural results are wild enough that we don't need to force anything.

The key point to remember, though, is that the recalc simply massages ratings before the season, and then we run through the season. And if you play with adjusting the modifiers, we do that on a global level, but don't look in depth. So in some of these cases, it could be a couple teams that end up with no pitching, and maybe guys feasted on them.

As you said, the overall numbers are pretty close to on par, but there's certainly something causing the skew in players to cause results to run quite high for some players. I don't know what that might be, but it would certainly be great if we could track down what it was, whether it's the ratings, the modifiers, the teams, or what.
I don't think you guys adjust the stats. When that happens to players, I like to refer to it as "getting baseballed". I'll throw in my thanks as well to you, Lukas, and Markus for looking into this.

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Old 02-01-2018, 10:08 AM   #75
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Last night I ran a 1947 - 1973 historical using real transactions. Players retired and missed seasons according to real life. The statistical accuracy page was almost entirely green. I think the only red may have been a couple seasons here or there in regards to stolen bases.

Now, once again, I was seeing too many individuals finish seasons with high hit totals. Stan the Man was the high with a 262 hit season. That by itself isn't too alarming, but when you look at all the rest of the list and see so many in the 230-262 range I think it's something that needs attention. Stan hit .400+ twice this period. Ted Williams hit .400 once. The other player to hit .400+ was Norm Cash. The great thing in the Cash case, is he immediately went back to reality the following season, so the game didn't string together years of greatness when those years didn't happen in real life. In the long run, if something can be done to tone down super seasons, the game will be pretty darn accurate. That one season of greatness Norm Cash had in real life was pretty darn amazing. There's simply no need for OOTP18 to exaggerate it to make it even more amazing.

So, I no longer think one year recalc is broken. What's broken is the ability to use a combo of recalc and development together.
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