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Old 12-30-2013, 09:39 PM   #1
coljesep
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Commish: Heinsohn Division Predictions

Note: These are simply just my own predictions of how things might shape up. They are not meant to insult anybody, they are meant for you to either prove me wrong – or prove me right.
Heinsohn Division Preview:

6th Place: LRS

Offense - F:
I’m not seeing a ton that I like to be honest. Maximo Perez will be their best hitter (you would hope since he was their first pick.) However, I don’t see this team getting on base enough in a 1985 style league to maximize Maximo’s (get it?) ability to drive in runs. With limited speed, and limited ability to get on base – the offense will rank 20th or worse in the league.

Starting Pitching - F:
If they finish with a qualifying starter having an ERA below 4.00 I would be surprised. Their #1 starter is 38 years old, and their #2 starter relies on team defense to keep himself in the game. Unfortunately for Seymour, I do not think LRS will have a quality defense.

Relief Pitching - D:
Ric Numbers was this franchise’s 2nd pick and at that point I scratched my head a bit. Hey, if it works – LRS fooled me. Why didn’t I like it? For me, you should build a team that needs a closer before you have a closer. If you can’t win the game in innings 1-8, then you don’t need a 9th inning shut down guy. Numbers is very solid, but he won’t get an opportunity to show it.

Wins Give or Take 5: 58

5th Place: MBWBA

Offense - D:
This roster has enough power to compete and be an annoying out at times for some of the better teams in the league. Perez, Vesey and Sosa could be 20 HR guys, but they won’t be enough to make up for where this offense lacks. Negrete, Chambers, Elliott and Moore to me are practically automatic outs. Like LRS, this team lacks speed and will have rally killing K after rally killing K.

Starting Pitching - F:
Put it this way, at some point Ricky Stone might pitch in 3 days rest for the entire season. He is all they have – and he’s dominant. Ray, Barron and Anderson will be near the top in BB – not a stat category you want your SP’s leading in.

Relief Pitching – D-:
I like some of the bullpen pieces… McKnight, Saenz, Barnes and Wills will be adequate relievers. The problem? By the time they come into the game, they will be viewed more as mop up relievers rather than stoppers.

Wins Give or Take 5: 68

4th Place: Heartland

Offense - F:
In case you didn’t get it by now, in this style league – I value, speed – pop – and defense for your lineup. Heartland has one out of three. They have enough speed to compete with the top half of the league, but they do not have the power or defense in my view. Their biggest power hitter last season hit 20, and he’s 33. So I am expecting nobody in this lineup to hit 20 or more HR. I don’t see how you can battle for a title in this league without the above 3 ingredients being in the top half of the league.

Starting Pitching - C:
I think their starters will actually keep Heartland relevant for a while. Three out of 5 of them will surely be around the 3.50 ERA mark by game 162. Hatcher like Stone of MBWBA may be asked to pitch on less rest, which will test his brilliance.

Relief Pitching – C-:
Outside of Blanc, I really like this bullpen. For me, Blanc puts the ball into play way too much to be a shutdown reliever – and when you have poor defense behind you, that’s gonna impact your numbers. I think Bill Thompson might be the best reliever in the league.

Wins Give or Take 5: 73

3rd Place: AFBL

Offense - B:
Easily the first or second best offense in this division. They will get on base near the tops in the entire league, and have enough speed to change a late game in their favor. Where they fall short on offense is their power throughout the lineup. However, they have two game changing power hitters in Hodges and Hill. So the key here will be getting on base ahead of them enough to allow their power to truly impact the game. I think they will do that enough to compete.

Starting Pitching: D
Like the teams below them in the standings, they seem to have one extremely good pitcher surrounded by a lot of question marks. George Davis is a legitimate ace, but his fellow staff mates might look more like 4-5 starters at best. The wild card here is Jose Martinez. Martinez has dominant stuff, but he gives up too many long balls to be truly effective. If he keeps that numbers below 20, he could make up a solid 1-2 punch. My fear is that he will be closer to 30 HR allowed.

Relief Pitching: D-
I think they have two guys who they can feel 100% confident in. Leach & Adams will provide excellent shut down stuff in the 8th and 9th inning. The issue here is whether the middle relievers can keep AFBL in the game in order to hand the ball off to Leach or Adams – I’m not sold on that.

Wins Give or Take 5: 85

2nd Place: RFTP

Offense: D-
They are the exception to my rule on keys to offensive success. They hit for enough power, they have enough speed and they should have very good defense. The problem? They appear to be an all or nothing type offense. Meaning, they have Jackson, Themudo, Walker and Wallace all with 20 HR potential – but they have no real table setters that I like. A guy like Melvin Jackson has game changing speed, but he won’t be on base enough to maximize it’s effectiveness. They won’t draw a lot of walks, and thus will not have many rallies which will hurt them down the stretch.

Starting Pitching: B+
If they are in it in September, their pitching is likely the reason. Fisher, Dewitt, and Snell are a very solid 1-3. Their flaw will be their control – so if they can keep the free bases down in the 50’s or 60’s, they could lead this team to a division title in spite of the lack of offense.

Relief Pitching: B+
This bullpen is going to help AFBL win those games they “shouldn’t.” They could finish the year with everybody below 3.00 in ERA – that’s pretty huge when you might end up playing a lot of close, low scoring games.

Wins Give or Take 5: 87

1st Place: ASBA

Offense: B
I think they are probably the best offense in the division. They have four guys who will battle with 20+ HR, they have 2 guys who might steal 30 bases each and they have an MVP candidate in Chris Jordan. I think the talent on this roster has enough to maintain a continuous onslaught of run production that many teams, especially many in this division will not be able to contain.

Starting Pitching: B
This is what separates them from the rest in their division. They not only have an offense that can be very productive, but they have a rotation that can shut down almost anybody in the league. The downside to this staff will be their walks allowed. They are going to rely a bit on their defense (which should be very good) – but you’re gambling when you have guys who can walk 80+ in a season. Still, I think the rotation 1-5 has enough talent to be very good.

Relief Pitching: C-
I’m not totally sold on the bulk of this bullpen. I think Burns, Pegram and Haines are just fine if not very good. But they won’t always be handed the ball, and the remainder of the pen to me – is a problem.

Wins Give or Take 5: 91
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