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Old 09-11-2012, 02:00 PM   #1
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Modeling Random Debut HOF on RL

Have done some dry runs along these lines and I think I have what I want.

I started a Random Debut League in 1879 and added AAA for team depth in 1910 and no fictional players.

I simmed through the 1935 season as a spectator only. Any player that received a Gold Glove, ROY, CY/MVP, or an AS appearance was logged into an Excel sheet.

Any player that was automatically inducted into the HOF I removed, but made a note in the spread sheet that the program had labeled them as a HOFer.

Prior to the 1936 season I put in the initial class of the HOF, just as in real life.

There were 3 hitters and two pitchers in the first real class, and that is what I put in. I am enshrining hitters and pitchers in the same numbers as they were put into the real Hall. I put in 2 hitters and one pitcher in 1937, prior to the season.

I am adhering to the retirement length requirements as they were in place in real life except for the fact that I am not allowing active players entry even though they were allowed entry, originally (though no active player ever was).

10 years of league service and a player is eligible

For the first class I decided prior to starting the league that the eligible hitters with the most career hits and the most career home runs would get in with the first class. For pitchers, the ones with the most wins and strikeouts would get in.

After the first class entered, I tabulated their black ink and gray ink stats. Also, I tabulated their numbers for HOF Monitor and HOF standards as descirbed on BBRef.

It is with the numbers from the first class that the standards for entry for subsequent classes will be based. As others enter, the standards will change as the numbers change.

Players who have been retired for 20 years or more will have lower threshold to enter than those that are more recently retired.

I will spare describing in nuts and bolts detail how this is being done, but my thought is that no matter what settings for the game are in use, by the time 2012 rolls around I should have ave black/gray ink numbers that are close to the averages of the real players in the real Hall. I also think I should have a HOF Monitor average close to 100 and a HOF standard average close to 50.

I am also interested in seeing how the positional distribution of the members mirrors real life.

I figured I would throw the first few classes on the historical forum and then move them to a blog, if that would be the more appropriate place to post such things.
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Old 09-11-2012, 02:32 PM   #2
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Inaugural class of hitters, 1936 : Speaker, Snider, Carew

Tris Speaker gets in as the leader in hits prior to the 1936 season with 3739. 18 consecutive Gold gloves is something I have never seen before in OOTP, but he got them in CF from 1885-1902.

His OOTP (and RL) black and gray ink totals were 126 (34) and 382 (346).

OOTP (and RL) HofM 467 (346)

OOTP (and) HoFS 79 (73)
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Duke Snider, though no longer the career leader in HRs after the 1935 season had the most HRs of any eligible player with 233, so he gets in the inaugural class. A .300 career average, 2741 career hits from 1912-1931, and 4 Gold Gloves give him borderline modern day numbers. Considering the era in he played, the decision to give a slot to the HR leader has not resulted in a questionable selection.

Black/Gray 21 (28) and 286 (183)
HofM/HofS 80 (152) and 59 (47)
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For the third hitter I decided to put in the eligible player with the highest WAR/VOR position. That player was Rod Carew. From 1907 to 1925 Rod racked up 3100 hits while batting .325 for his career and winning two MVP awards.

B/G 32 (42) and 208 (148)
HofM/HofS 182 (242) and 45 (55)

ADD: Real life parallel, Rod Carew wins batting title without hitting HR in 1894.
--------------

Generally, though there will be plenty of exceptions, it is anticipated that hitters enshrined in the early years will have higher B/G numbers due to fewer teams, but lower HofM and HofS numbers due to fewer games per season and a more difficult offensive environment.

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Old 09-11-2012, 03:00 PM   #3
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Inaugural Class of Pitchers, 1936 : Ferguson and Dolan

For this league I am using recalc based on 5 years. I have never used this length of a recalc setting before, but I have liked what I have seen from recalc in the past runs.

Charlie J Ferguson seems to be a favorite of the sim. He has been great every time he has come up in my Random Leagues.

In this one, he was immortally dominant. From 1903 to 1927 he won 537 games while losing 341...that's a .612 win% in 950 G (all starts). Along with having the most career wins, he is also the career leader in strikeouts with 4596. He was the Rookie of the Year, won two GGs, and 6 CYA.

OOTP (and RL) Black and Gray Ink : 191 (6) and 466 (99)

OOTP (and RL) HoFM and HoFS : 221 (49) and 87 (27)


------------

Since the same pitcher had the most wins and strikeouts I had one more slot to fill by a pitcher.

Cozy P Dolan was drafted as a 31 year-old in the inaugural draft of the league. I did not clear the ML service times from the inaugural class and allowed consideration for the Hall for players if their listed service time was at least 10 years with the service time they brought with them.

Dolan fit this category. He also split his career between pitching and hitting. Pitching from 1880-1885 he won 2 CY Young Awards and was an all star 3 times. In 1886 he was an All-Star as a hitter. Between 1880 and 1885 he pitched 1282 innings while compiling a 92-50 record. But I put him in because he was absolutely dominant.

Consider that he retired as the leader in career ERA (1.71), winning % (.648), WHIP (1.02), opp OBP (.242) and opp OPS (.251). I am confident that 4 of these records will never be broken due to era factoring. If he is going to be immortal in the record books he is worthy of consideration to be immortalized in the Hall.

All of his ink came from pitching. Black 44, Gray 110, HoF Monitor 111.5, Hof Standards 37.
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Old 09-11-2012, 03:40 PM   #4
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Hitting Class of 1937 : Lajoie, Brouthers

From the start of the league through the 1936 season I had dozens (mostly pitchers) that were given HOF status by the default settings. As the league progresses, any player that is dubbed Hall-worthy by these settings will be given instant consideration and will be inducted as a 'first ballot' selection if their combined Black/Gray ink number (factored to equalize for hitters and pitchers) is greater than the average B/G number for those already enshrined AND if their HofM/HoFS combined fctor is also greater than those currently enshrined.

I took all the players that had been inducted by the program and did a random sort and went one by one through them in that order tabulating BG and Hof M/S. When I got a player that had both numbers above the Hall average, he was added. For 1938 these players' numbers will be added to the original class and create a new standard for the upcoming class.

The first player that met the criteria was Nap Lajoie. Lajoie retired second in career hits to Tris Speaker with 3542. Lajoie was the 1902 Rookie of the year. When he retired in 1922 he had won 13 GGs at second base and won 4 MVP awards. He was on the WS winning team 3 times and at the time of his enshrinement was the career leader in singles with 2855.

Black and Gray : 90 (76) and 381 (266)
HOF Mon and Stand : 335 (262) and 56 (66)

ADD: Real life parallel, Lajoie enters HOF in 1937.
-------------------------------


Dan Brouthers played from 1882 to 1903. He appeared in 9 World Series, winning 6 times. He collected 2581 hits and was selected to 11 All-Star teams. Like Lajoie, he won 4 MVP awards, to go along with 3 GGs.

Black and Gray : 79 (79) and 281 (263)

HoF Mon and Stand : 228.5 (162) and 56 (64)

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Old 09-11-2012, 03:55 PM   #5
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Class of 1937, pitcher : Burke

James Burke came to my attention in his first season. He won the Rookie of the Year Award, but two people win that every year. Why he stuck with me is that the other ROY was Bobby Burke!



Burke (James, Bobby's career was much less notable) won 362 games in his career. He got 9 career WS starts in 4 Series. In those 9 starts he had an ERA+ over 200, won 6 games, 3 series, and pitched 84.1 innings (yep, that's an average of more than 9 innings a start). He holds the single season VOR record with a 104 in 1891. He won 6 Cy Young Awards, and was a 9 time All-Star in a career that spanned from 1886 to 1904.

Black Ink 128
Gray Ink 359

Hall of Fame Monitor 307.5
Hall of Fame Standards 70
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Old 09-13-2012, 02:43 AM   #6
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1938 Class, Smiley

IRL, there was just one player, a pitcher (Pete Alexander), entered into the Hall in 1938.

I went through all the pitchers that the program had entered into the Hall looking for one with B/G and HoF M/S numbers above the averages of the players in the Hall, already. I went through them all and none did. I was quite surprised because a couple of players that were not screened before Burke was for the 1937 class are obviously deserving.

The next step was to randomize the list of all players on the spreadsheet, which included players the program had not enshrined. I then went through one by one to find one to enter.

If a player has been retired for less than 20 years he gets enshrined if any of the 4 metrics is above the average of those in the Hall already. Or if his B/G or Hof M/S ave is above the Hall average. This can happen when a player's numbers come close to the average of each individual standard but exceed neither.

A player retired for more than 20 years has a different and lower standard.

Players screened that have no number close to the average of any standard are removed from the list. Each time they get reviewed for a Hall class and they are not entered, they need to have better numbers or qualifying numbers in more categories to remain eligible.

------------

John Smiley was a player I thought would get in on his first look as a player the program put in the Hall. Yet, with 395 wins from 1882 to 1904, he did not have numbers above the Hall's average in the Black/Gray ink metric. The BG for pitchers is less valuable than for hitters, and is modified based on RL Hall averages.

Smiley had a 395-293 record. He was an All Star 7 times and won a WS. He also picked up a Gold Glove along the way.

His win total puts him 3rd all time behind inaugural inductee Charlie J Ferguson and Walter Johnson. After Smiley didn't reach the Hall on his first look, I thought for sure Johnson would be a shoe in, but he didn't reach the initial standard set for a computer inductee.

Smiley was a shoe in as a 'veteran' inductee, but his HoF Monitor number was higher than the Hall average, so I don't call him a Vet inductee. He reached by matching the threshold of the current Hall residents. However, this was the only number that he had which was higher than the Hall average. That was another shock to me. This shows how exceedingly dominant some of the previous inductees were.

Black Ink 32 (7)
Gray Ink 334 (56)
Hall of Fame Monitor 251.5 (22)
Hall of Fame Standards 61 (16)

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Old 09-14-2012, 07:58 AM   #7
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Class of 1939, Batters, Part 1 - Kauff, Campbell Gehrig

1939 is a big class with 6 hitters and a pitcher entering the Hall. Things slow down here with the manual tabulation of the metrics. With over 300 hitters in the spreadsheet, and over 90% of them not screened previously, a stall is unavoidable.

The standards for the Hall are the highest in its earliest days. A lot of "No"s and near misses occur before I find one that meets the current standards. I go strictly by the numbers in the categories I outlined. The standards will fluctuate with each added class, but the method used will be constant.

-------------

After the inaugural class, Bennie Kauff becomes the first first-balloter. He retired after the 1938 season (the waiting period is not yet in effect) having begun his career as the first pick in the 1915 draft. I have scouting set on low. The scouts RARELY miss on first picks, even at this setting. And Kauff was not a miss.

He retires as the all time hit leader with 3778 and the career leader in total bases. He stole 886 bases, 8th all-time, and holds the single season mark of 134.

He is one of 11 players to have hit 3 HRs in one game. To give an idea of that feat's rarity, there have been 69 cycles hit. Kauff has one of them, also.

7 MVPs, 3 GGs, 2 WS, and an All-Star Game mark his resume which began with the Rookie of the Year. There were no All Star games from 1900 through 1933, otherwise, who knows what sort of standard he would have set.

Black Ink 84 (23)
Gray Ink 379 (113)
HofM 335 (51)
HofS 79 (25)
-----------------------

Vin Campbell is the first player that is entered on the Veteran's standard. From 1885-1904 he had 2787 hits and stole 794 bases. He was an 11 time All-Star (I allowed for AS games prior to 1900 in order to allow for point accumulation for HoFM to sightly balance out the short seasons limiting career accumulation of numbers for that era).

Campbell was taken 2nd in the 1884 draft. He won 3 GGs and an MVP. He appeared in 2 WS, winning 1.

Both Kauff and Campbell were selected by the program as HOFers. Kauff entered on the first look given to such players and was entered because his B/G ave and his Hof M/S ave were above the average of the 7 members already in the Hall. Campbell did not, but when his turn came up for a look later, both of those numbers were within the margin I have set for players retired for 20 years to enter.

Black Ink 49, Gray Ink 242, HofM 220.5, HofS 50

-----------------------

Lou Gehrig is the first player entered that the program did not enter using the default setting.

I started the league with the 1879 season. A 24 yo Gehrig was the first player selected in the inaugural draft. He retired with 1406 hits and 116 home runs. Even with these low league totals he got in without using the Veteran Standard. His Black Ink number was better than the Hall average.

Consider he led or co-led the league 7 times in games played with numbers of 126, 113, 112, 98, and 84 (3x). To look at 1400 hits from those season structures in the same way as from 154 or 162 game schedule would be completely ridiculous.

In 1888 Gehrig hit 26 HRs during a 154 game schedule. It was not until 1921 that anyone hit more HRs in a season.

Gehrig led the league in HRs four times. He won 2 MVPs, 6 GGs, and was an 8 time All Star. He won 2 WS in 4 appearances.

Black Ink 70 (75)
Gray Ink 232 (315)

HoF Monitor 105 (352)
HoF Standard 23 (72)

ADD: Real Life parallel, Gehrig enters HOF in the same year as RL.

Now to get the next three.....

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Old 09-15-2012, 04:59 AM   #8
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Hitters Class of 1939, Part 2 - Chase, Torre, Parker

Hal Chase is the first inductee to not have played in a WS. Perhaps because he threw ball games down the stretch. Those rumors, however, are not enough from keeping him out of the Hall on the Veteran Standard.

From 1885 to 1902 he accumulated 2838 hits while batting .317. He won a Gold Glove and was an All Star 6 times. He retired with 964 stolen bases.

Black Ink 29 (12)
Gray Ink 250 (118)
HOFm 150 (26)
HOFs 44 (18)
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Joe Torre enters with above average numbers in both HOFm and HOFs categories.

His 3236 career hits places him 4th on the all time list behind fellow HOFers Kauff, Speaker, and Lajoie.

From 1919 to 1936 he batted .317 and collected 200 hits in a season 5 times. He caught 2501 games, the most for a career. He holds the majority of slots on the career leaderboard for catchers. Among the single season records he holds is an OPS of .950 from the 1929 season. he won 2 MVPs, a GG, and 3 WS titles in 4 appearances.

Black Ink 16 (12)
Gray Ink 228 (71)
HOFm 272 (96)
HOFs 69 (40)

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Dave Parker just missed getting in on the Veterans Standard, then I realized that I had not counted the 3 MVP awards he had won, and this put him over the top of the threshold. The 24 points in the HOF Monitor made the difference.

Parker becomes the second player not selected by the program to be in the Hall, but he is clearly deserving of induction.

Along with his 3 MVPs, he was an 8 time All-Star, won 3 GGs, and won the ROY in a career that ran from 1889-1903.

In 1517 games he collected 1889 hits while batting .324 for his career in which he collected 2 batting titles.

Parker won a Championship in his only opportunity in 1896.

Black Ink 47 (26)
Gray Ink 195 (145)
HOFm 158.5 (124)
HOFs 36 (42)

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Old 09-15-2012, 07:45 AM   #9
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Pitching Class of 1939 : Wells

The Boomer, David Wells, gets the 1939 pitcher spot in the Hall of Fame.

Right now, there is a back log of pitchers with qualifying numbers, while the hitters that are eligible through service time are on the borderline. As the standards drop towards the current real life norms, those passed over will find entry.

Case in point is Wells. He gets in on the Veteran Standard, but once the new class is added to the earlier members, his numbers would get him in even if he had not been retired for 20 years.

David Wells pitched from 1888 to 1905. He posted a record of 318-247 and an ERA of 2.68, which is an ERA+ of 118.

His K/9 rate of 2.58 and win% of .563 are lows for Hall members.

Wells does have 10 All-Star appearances, more than any other Hall member. He pitched his entire career with the Quakers/Phillies organization. In 20 seasons his team won 9 pennants and 5 WS championships.

While there are others that may have more eye-popping numbers, the Hall can be strange as it allows entry to one player before another. I will just say that my explanation is that Wells was a larger than life figure and well liked by the writers. So, even though there will be other pitchers to enter with better numbers, Wells with his wins and titles is deserving.

At this point in time the RL HOF was casting ballots just once every three years. The next induction will take place following the 1941 season in 1942 when one hitter gets in.

Black Ink 57 (24)
Gray Ink 260 (123)
HOFm 241.5 (88)
HOFs 52 (40)

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Old 09-15-2012, 08:27 AM   #10
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Thoughts following 1939 Season

David Wells, freshly inducted in the HOF, ranks tied for 15th on the All-Time win list with his 318 victories. Only 5 pitchers have been inducted and no more will be until 1945. There are lots of deserving candidates.

It seems that the random generation has given me a disproportionate amount of HOF and notable pitchers in the years before the Hall was established. Now the league is rich with top of the line hitters and the big name pitchers are less abundant. It will be interesting to see how this shapes up.

The top three spots for career WAR an VORP are still active. They are not just good players having career free from injury in the sim, they are legends and they are pounding what appears to be weaker pitching, across the board.

And Babe Ruth has yet to appear.
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Old 09-18-2012, 04:38 AM   #11
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Class of 1942 : Morgan

Second baseman Joe Morgan is the 1942 HOF inductee.

In one that closely paralleled that in real life, his OOTP career spanned from 1887-1908.

In 22 seasons he collected 2665 hits (2517, IRL), with a hitting line of 280/385/399 (271/392/427).

Playing in a 19th Century and Dead Ball Era environment, Morgan collected 88 HRs in his career.

At the time of this induction, he is the career leader in walks with 1652. He scored 1759 runs, 5th All-Time, and the most of any eligible player not in the HOF. His 880 SB places his him 10th on that career list.

At the time of his induction he has the most putouts in league history by a second baseman.

Morgan gets in with his HOFs number being better than the HOF average. As the selection process goes, this was the first time his numbers were tabulated. The program did not induct him on the default standards. Very few players that have been in the spreadsheet since the opening of the Hall have not been evaluated. Had his name come up earlier, his HOFs number would have gotten him in in any previous year. The Morgan induction is not a result of benefiting from a lowered Hall threshold for induction. Morgan's Ink and HOF M/S are all close to the average to that of the previous inductees, but only his HOFs exceeded those averages.

In real-life, Morgan had an OPS+ of 132. In this OOTP world it was 131.

Black Ink 43 (15)
Gray Ink 243 (131)
HOF Monitor 193 (172)
HOF Standards 62 (56)

ADD: Real Life parallel - Morgan is the only player inducted the year Rogers Hornsby was the only player inducted, the two players that will be at the center of any "Best Second Baseman Ever" discussion.

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Old 09-22-2012, 01:41 AM   #12
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Top Pitchers by Category Hall Eligible

The 1945 class is about to be determined. NINE hitters and zero pitchers. Since the pitchers are still waiting for more entries, I thought I would log those who have retired with a minimum of 10 yrs service who lead in various categories.

At the end of the 1944 season, there are 24 pitchers with at least 300 wins. 4 are in the HOF and one is active. In 1946, 5 pitchers will get in. Maybe some of these will be among them.

ERA (my newest favorite stat, ever) Ed Morris, 2.14, 1902-1915, 7th All time
Wins Walter Johnson, 429, 1904-1925, 2nd
Win % Hippo Vaughn, 0.621, 1895-1916, 6th
Saves Kenley Jansen, 207, 1925-1943, 1st
Games Kenley Jansen, 1020, 1925-1943, 1st
Shut Outs Walter Johnson, 61, 1904-1925, 2nd
IP Walter Johnson, 6804, 1904-1925, 2nd
Strikeouts Al Pratt, 3999, 1882-1901, 2nd

Should Jansen get in, he would be the first player active IRL to do so. A case can be made for him. The standards will be lowered after the new nine, enter, but they will probably bounce up again after the pitchers of 1946 join. It is going to be difficult to assure yourself enshrinement as a pitcher, in the future, if you do not get in on the first ballot. Just too many resumes and not enough openings.

Johnson, Vaughn and Pratt are probably wishing they had been as nice to the writers as David Wells.

ADD: I noted on the main board that Ted Williams had been completely misscouted by all teams. That post did relate to this league. Williams is the highest batter, 10th place, on the Baseball Reference Elo Rater that will not make this HOF. I scrolled down the pitchers to find the highest rated pitcher that has played and retired and will not make the HOF and it is Roger Clemens at number 6. That's no lie, Your Honor.

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Old 09-23-2012, 02:07 PM   #13
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Class of 1945, Part 1 - Shaw, Clemente, Longoria

Al S Shaw earns his way into the HOF as the second first ballot inductee. Though his numbers across the board were not above the Hall average, when his name came up for normal review, his HOFs number was more than sufficient. The only players in the Hall with a higher HOFs number are Speaker and Kauff.

From 1922 to 1942 Shaw compiled a lifetime average of .324 while collecting 2938 hits. Aside from a partial farewell season in 1942, hit hit over .300 in all but one full season.

His Black and Gray Ink numbers are the lowest of anyone inducted, thus far, but there is no doubt of his legitimate entrance. No eligible player has a better career VORP or WAR figure than Shaw.

He played in 11 WS games and produced an OPS over 1.000 in those games, winning 2 titles in two tries. He is a Rookie of the Year winner and 2 time All Star.

Black Ink 4
Gray Ink 175
HOF Monitor 115.5
HOF Status 70

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Roberto Clemente, in his first year with Veteran Standard consideration gets in on the Veteran Standard. His Black Ink number was just short of the Hall average, but no matter, he is in.

Clemente was a big miss by the scouts. He was a 6th rd, 101st overal selection. Despite having an OPS+ over 130 in each of his first three seasons, he did not get a chance to play in 100 games until season number 4.

In a career spanning from 1902 to 1924, he collected 2397 hits while batting .323. He enters the Hall as the All-Time leaders in triples with 293.

If there were any thoughts that his career numbers are a bit light to be enshrined, the 5 MVP awards should assuage any doubts of his legitimate entry. He also won 4 WS in 6 tries. He was also the first player to collect a Triple Crown. In 1915 he hit .336 with 14 HRs and 96 RBI. Only one other Triple Crown has been attained, since.

Black 52 (23)
Gray 148 (154)
HOFm 169.5 (231)
HOFs 35 (51)

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Evan Longoria becomes the first active RL player enshrined. His 327 HRs and 1727 RBI collected from 1921 to 1939 sets s new Hall Standards in those categories.

He batted .289 for his career in which he collected 2979 hits. A ROY, MVP, and WS ring reside in his trophy case. Longoria's Gray Ink and HOFs numbers both exceed the Hall average, and that is how he gets in.

Black 31
Gray 271
HOFm 180
HOFs 60

Last edited by VanillaGorilla; 09-24-2012 at 04:53 AM. Reason: info correction
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Old 09-24-2012, 02:58 AM   #14
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Class of 1945, Part 2 - Staub, Mathews, White

The spreadsheet had 292 hitters on it for consideration when the 1945 screening began. The standards for this class were high in comparison to the runs I had done before when reaching this mass induction year. Considering the random debut had been much heavier on pitching greats than hitting greats, I guessed that I would have to go through the whole list, and I did. It is now down to 121 eligible players. The higher the standards, the harder to get in, and the easier to be dropped from future consideration.

5 players got in on regular or Veteran standards. The remaining 4 were filled by alternating between highest placement on either VORP/WAR list, or by a career leader in a category.

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Rusty Staub debuted in 1920 and retired in 1940. He collected 3192 hits while batting .308. He was an MVP, All-Star, and collected 4 GGs. He batted .368 in 1924 to win a batting title. He appeared in one WS and was on the winning team.

In statistical oddity, he scored exactly the same number of runs as RBI, 1604.

He enters on the basis of his HOFs number being above the Hall average.

He ranks 9th on the all time hit list. At the time of his selection, there was no eligible player with more base hits, runs, or RBI.

Black Ink 14 (4)
Gray Ink 166 (89)
HOFm 147.5 (59)
HOFs 61 (38)

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Eddie Mathews joins Joe Morgan and Lou Gehrig as batters who were not selected by the program to be in the HOF and be inducted using this method.

He played from 1892 to 1910. In that time he won 5 MVPs, 4 GGs, ROY, and was an ALL-Star 7 times. He led the league in HR 4 times, with a career best season of 22 in 1894 and when he retired he was the career leader with 157.

He batted .370 in 1897 to win a batting title and batted .298 for his career. He retired with 2560 base hits.

Mathews enters the Hall on the Veterans Standard.

Black 50 (16)
Gray 224 (183)
HOFm 183.5 (162)
HOFs 49 (54)

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Bill White was the first inductee in this class to enter after all players on the spreadsheet had been examined by current standards. This means he was looked at, found not to meet the criteria of the players retired for less than 20 years and put back in the pool. When all the players were screened and 4 slots remained, I gave a slot to the player with the highest position on the VORP and/or WAR career list that was eligible. For 1945 this simply means retired.

White was selected by the program, when he retired. He definitely had a HOF career, but was not such a dominant player as to get in on the first ballot.

He played from 1920 to 1939 and collected 3106 base hits in that time, placing him 12th All-Time (6 ahead of Rod Carew). He was an All Star three times and a GG winner four times.

IRL, White was the first minority to hold the post of a League President. In my little baseball world it is nice to know that such things are of no importance. The only color barriers there are are colored Black and Gray. What a wonderful world.

On that note, White's B/G numbers are the lowest of any Hall member.

Black 4 (1)
Gray 126 (85)
HOFm 129 (63)
HOFs 52 (22)
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Old 09-24-2012, 04:00 AM   #15
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Class of 1945, Part 3 - Thomas, Herman, Lobert

Roy A Thomas is inducted ahead of his time in that he gets in on the basis of being the career leader in the recently hallowed statistic of On Base Percentage.

From 1889 to 1901, Thomas appeared in 1463 games, collecting 1728 hits and 1079 walks that gave him a line of 331/448/390. He won the 1894 batting title by hitting .391. He scored 1181 career runs.

His OBP number is very Hall worthy when the fact that the next best OBP in the Hall is Al Smith's .405.

Thomas was ROY and 7 time All Star.

Though the stat is not listed in leaderboard form in OOTP, AFIK, his R/G ratio of .807 is the best I have seen during the screening process.

Smith becomes the 4th batter to be inducted that the computer did not.

Thomas hit .409 in 13 WS games, winning 1 title in 2 tries. He holds the single season record for walks with 156 in his rookie year of 1889.

Black Ink 17 (17)
Gray Ink 112 (66)
HOFm 114 (28)
HOFs 47 (26)


----------------

I went back to the VORP/WAR list for the next inductee. Babe Herman was the highest listed eligible player, so he gets in.

Herman, like White, was inducted by the computer (and, like White, promptly removed).

In 1922 Babe Herman did something no RL player has ever done when he hit for the cycle twice in the same season.

He won and MVP, ROY, and was an All Star.

He batted .319 from 1917 to 1937. He won 2 batting titles. He hit a career best .356 in 1932.

His career line of 319/366/474 gives him a non-park adjusted OPS+ of 133.

Black 17 (1)
Gray 162 (138)
HOFm 91 (74)
HOFs 43 (39)

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Hans Lobert is the career leader in Stolen Bases. From 1904 to 1920 he stole 1039. For being the leader in this category, he gets in.

Yes, this is the only reason, but he is famous for SBs (in my world, at least), and the only other category with an eligible player leading is Caught Stealin (that player is not Lobert).

To be fair, his B/G numbers are better than both Bill White and Roy Thomas, who enter in this class.

Lobert's line of 261/316/339 are all Hall lows.

Lobert is the first HOFer to not have either a GG, ASG, ROY, or MVP/CY. What this also means is that Lobert is the first inductee that didn't even make it to the spreadsheet (a tick mark in any of these, or computer induction, gets you there).

No active player with 17 years of service, or less, is within 450 SBs of this record. This record will stand for a long time. Lou Brock is retired (583) and Rickey has yet to appear.

Lobert collect 2098 base hits in his career.

Black 18 (0)
Gray 130 (68)
HOFm 58 (2)
HOFs 26 (16)

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Old 09-25-2012, 12:04 PM   #16
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Class of 1946, Pitchers, Part 1 - Saberhagen, Kilroy, Johnson

11 players were inducted this year, 6 pitchers and 5 hitters. The pitchers haven't been screened for several years, so there is a backlog for me there. 1946 is also the first year where a 1 year period of retirement is required for inductees. I am instituting that requirement.

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Bret Saberhagen debuted as a 19 year-old in 1919, winning 21 games and the ROY. He made his final appearance in 1940, winning 1.

In those years, and those in between, he won 359 games vs 241 losses. His win total is 7th on the All Time list at the time of his Hall entry. Pitching in an ERA with low strikeout rates, he tallied 1688 Ks in 5540 2/3 IP. He finished in the top 10 of K/9 per season just twice, but he placed in the top 10 of K/BB ratio 15 times, leading the league twice. This was accomplished by having a phenomenal BB/9 rate of 1.94 for his career. 5 times he led the league in this category and he placed in the top 10 16 times.

A 5 time Cy Young winner, Saberhagen won 2 WS in 3 tries and also made an All Star appearance. He also pitched one no-hitter.

He gets in on the "first ballot" screening given to players that the program deems worthy of induction, however, he is not officially considered a First ballot inductee because he was eligible to be enshrined on previous ballots. The voters simply chose to not elect any pitchers those times.

Black Ink 71 (20)
Gray Ink 293 (127)
HOF Monitor 219.5 (70)
HOF STandards 56 (32)

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Matt Kilroy was a surprise. There is a large number of deserving candidates waiting, but he slipped under my radar, as well as the program's. He becomes the first pitcher since the inaugural class to enter that was not selected by the program.

My intent by using this system is not to enter the best players every year, but to simulate how the actual Hall is peculiar in it's choices.

Matt Kilroy pitched from 1881 to 1895. He posted a record of 181-132. His ERA of 2.27 is only bested by inagural class inductee Cozy Dolan and unenshrined Ed Morris amongst players with 10 years of ML service.

Of significant note is that in 1882 he won the WS. His team did, but if anyone can be said to have singularly contribute to a WS win, it is Kilroy. He made 2 starts and pitched 2 complete game shutouts. He pitched in an era when shutouts were uncommon, especially in relation to the number of GS a regular pitcher received. In 327 regular season starts he notched 9 shutouts (1 in 1882). This WS performance was definitely coming up big when it mattered.

A 4 time All Star, he won 2 GGs and 2 CYAs. He also won 30 games twice in a season.

He enters on the Veteran Standard.

Black 32 (22)
Gray 150 (75)
HOFm 140 (66)
HOFs 137 (16)

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Walter Johnson had a bit of a wait, but it was an inevitability that he would get in as soon as his name bubbled to the top of the queue.

2nd on the win, 3rd on the strikeout list, 4 CYA and 5 WS titles in 7 appearances (going 10-3 with a 268 ERA+ in 14 starts, but just one shutout).

Johnson entered the league in 1904 and retired after the 1924 season. He won 429 games, losing 318, and posting an OOTP ERA of 2.69. His 3924 Ks, as noted previously, are third best, all time.

Johnson pitched his entire career when there were no All Star games played.

His numbers in all of the categories surpass the current Hall averages.

ADD: Like Saberhagen, Johnson also pitched a no-hitter.

Black 74 (150)
Gray 358 (420)
HOFm 274.5 (364)
HOFs 69 (82)

He pitched the same number of ML years as he did in real life, but his Ink numbers are significantly less. I think this points to the presence of especially strong pitching in this universe as compared to the RL model.

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Old 09-25-2012, 03:27 PM   #17
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Class of 1946, Pitchers, Part 2 - Joss, Nolan, Hughson

One thing I absolutely love about OOTP is how it allows me to play out "what might have been"s for players. I really like how the player development engine in conjunction with the recalc feature gives me a very plausible output that, imo, is superior to anything on the market.

All of these players were deemed Hall worthy by the program. However, they were not the first three examined since the previous post. One sub .500 career pitcher narrowly missed out (sub .500 pitchers will get in using this method, which is fine, they are there in RL) and one 300 game winner did not reach current standards.

Still, the quality of pitchers waiting the call is extraordinary. Consider that in the class of 1945 almost 300 hitters were screened, and only 5 met the standards for that year.

The standards for 1946 have dropped with the induction of the 1945 class into the averages, but I only had to examine 25 pitchers before finding six that met the criteria I have set for induction. This is not due to the biases of raw Black/Gray Ink numbers for pitchers vs hitters. Those figures are proportionately normalized to offer equal comparisons between both groups.

-----------

Addie Joss joins Walter Johnson as the other pitcher to be inducted in this class that is also in the real HOF. Unlike Johnson, Joss had a simulated career that does not mirror his historical longevity.

Debuting in 1906, as the first pick from the 1905 draft, he competed through the 1923 season. Joss posted a record of 303-272 and chalked up 1799 strikeouts and a career OOTP ERA of 2.61.

Joss pitched during the no ASG years, but was still honored with 3 CYAs, a GG, and the ROY award.

Joss pitched in 6 WS, winning 5 times while posting an 8-3 record in 12 starts. Joss meets the HOF criteria with his HOFm number exceeding the current Hall average.

Black Ink 50 (19)
Gray Ink 217 (139)
HOF Monitor 210.5 (89)
HOF Standards 52 (47)

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The Only Nolan...I smile every time I see that. Edward Sylvester Nolan must have been a fun guy to be with on road trips. If he had been a teammate of Jim Bouton we would surely know a lot more about him.

In this universe, he was a monster of a pitcher for many years. In a career running from 1920 through 1938 he won 326 games vs 275 losses and struck out 2903 batters. He led the league in wins 5 times and in strikeouts ELEVEN times.

He won a GG, appeared in an All-Star game, and 3 times was given the Cy Young Award. He won the pitching triple crown in 1927 and 1928.

His Black Ink and Gray Ink numbers each exceed the Hall average.

Black 96
Gray 313
HOFm 173
HOFs 48

--------------------------

Tex Hughson barely missed getting in on current standards, but enters by reaching the Veteran criteria. In a career that spanned from 1883 to 1903 he won 263 games while loosing 254. He struck out 1897 batters and had an OOTP ERA of 2.74.

The 9 time All Star picked up the CYA in 1889 by posting 31 wins and 226 strikeouts, both career bests.

Black 34
Gray 225
HOFm 184.5
HOFs 38

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Old 09-25-2012, 05:46 PM   #18
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Class of 1946, Hitters, Part 1 - Ramirez, Magee, Roth

With the newly instituted 1 year waiting period, all of the hitters on the spreadsheet are those that did not make it into the Hall in 1945 on 1945 standards, since no new retirees have been added.

What is represented in this class is exactly what I am looking for from the Hall dynamic...as other players get in for whatever reason the voters/selection committee looks at those not in with an eye to who is in. The discussion ensues, "Well, if that player is in, then you have to put in this one." Wheter this is the way Hall selections should be, or not, it is, to an extent, how they are.

------------
The second active player to get in, Hanley Ramirez is very close to what would be considered an average HOFer by today's standards, but a little bit better.

From 1895 to 1904 he batted .279 and collected 2853 base hits. He stole 816 bases which places him 12th on the all time list.

He won an MVP and appeared in 3 AS games in his first 4 seasons (before they went on hiatus) and appeared in 3 WS, though he didn't win one.

Black Ink 19
Gray Ink 201
HOF Monitor 131
HOF STandards 148

------------

Sherry Magee is a prime example of shifting Hall Standards. In 1945 he could not reach the Hall on the lowered Veteran Standard. In 1946 he does not need the Veteran Standard as his Black Ink total is now better than the Hall average.

From 1894 to 1913 he batted .299 in collecting 2467 hits. That he just missed .300 and 2500 hits kept him out from the last class.

No matter, he is in now. And surely deserving. He won 3 MVPs, 9 GGs, and batted .333 in 10 WS games winning one title in 2 attempts.

His 882 SBs places him 9th on the All Time list. He won 2 batting titles, one in 1897 when he posted a career high .390.

Black 54 (35)
Gray 216 (210)
HOFm 107.5 (60)
HOFs 36 (35)

While my method is merely an attempt to simulate the real Hall, if my method was used Magee would be in based on his Black and Gray Ink numbers being above the current RL Hall average.

-------------

Braggo Roth is even more representative of today's average HOFer than Ramirez, but a little bit worse than the average. The average HOFer (not that there is actually such an individual) would be somewhere between these two.

Roth also gets in on the Veteran Standard.

From 1895 through 1913 he played in 1320 games and collected 1450 hits. Relegated as a role player/replacement following the 1900 season, it are his first 6 years that make him Hall worthy.

In 1896 he collected 213 hits, 101 RBI, and scored 104 times in a 132 game season, winning the MVP. He scored 105 runs the previous season in 132 game schedule, also.

He stole over 100 bases 3 times in his career and batted .314 for his career. He went to the All Star game his first 6 seasons. There was no AS game after that.

Black 33
Gray 109
HOFm 107.5
HOFs 36
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Old 09-25-2012, 08:53 PM   #19
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Class of 1946, Hitters, Part 2 - Rose, Baker

At the age of 82, Pete Rose gets into the Hall of Fame. That sounds fair to me. Rose is not the career hits leader. He did collect 2580 hits over 19 seasons from 1884 to 1902, but did not set the career record or even get 3000 hits. This is partly, but not in whole, due to the shortened seasons at the start of his career.

Rose did twice lead the league in hits and collect 2 batting titles and was named to 9 All Star teams. He never appeared in a WS.

I found the HOF statement generated to be very fitting, so I snipped it in.

In pure coincidence, the Hall manager assures me, Rose's statue is being placed to that of Hal Chase. Rose gets in on the Veteran Standard.

Black Ink 16 (64)
Gray Ink 168 (239)
HOFm 93.5 (311)
HOFs 48 (55)

--------------

Home Run Baker does not get in for hitting home runs. From 1880 through 1895 he hit 88. He never led the league in that category, either.

He did collect the MVP, along with ROY, in his rookie season when he finished second in the league in HRs...with 2.

That MVP season he posted a line of 356/376/530, league bests in all 3 stats, which was good for a non-park adjusted OPS+ of 191.

He led the league in hits twice and SB three times.

He collected 1906 with a career batting ave of .297. He won 6 GGs at third base and was a 10 time All-Star.

His entry is based on his Gray Ink number being above the Hall average.

Black 36
Gray 252
HOFm 56
HOFs 38

Baker would not have gotten in based on Veteran Standards because his HOFm/s composite was not high enough, this class. First entrant to get in with such distribution.

Side note: Bob Watson became the first player inducted by the computer to be eliminated from the spreadsheet.

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Old 09-25-2012, 09:17 PM   #20
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Rose HOF News

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