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Old 08-12-2018, 10:41 AM   #1
quillenl
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Revisiting Fan Interest, Loyalty, and Market Size

Been running some 70-year sims and using the exports to go through the individual team histories. I started doing this to get an idea of just how long it would take to change Market Size as an aid for myself in Online Leagues. (Nothing I share here is intended to be me explaining how the system works... it is just the result of repeated observation of data I have been getting from exports.)

The Observation:

A lot of what I am seeing contradicts much of what I have heard from various Online Leagues. Quite Frankly, the changes to Fan Loyalty and Market Size seem random. If this is intentional, that is fine... but it would be worth a developer response to prevent a large amount of frustration of people playing smaller market teams who are under the illusion that prolonged success WILL result in an increase in Fan Loyalty and/or M<arket Size.

To catch some up, here are some assumptions based on data I have seen:\

Fan Interest will slowly change season to season almost solely based on your record over some number of seasons. A Fan Interest Modifier affects this in any given season based on specific events such as signing a player but will go away the next season. (Fan Interest Modifier value can be seen when you export to either SQL, Access, or CSV). For example, if you had a consistent Fan Interest of 70 every season over 10 years based on record, but signed a Very popular player one year, you might see a Fan Interest of 75 that year that returned to 70 the following Season.

Fan Loyalty appears to provide resistance at both a floor and ceiling level. A low Fan Loyalty will allow you to Fan Interest to lower values faster, and make it more difficult to reach higher values. The seasonal Fan Interest Modifier may give you a spike in any given direction for a given season, but it will not sustain. Fan Loyalty does not appear to be affected by the record or sustained Fan Interest values. In one test the California Angels saw Fan Loyalty increase from 4 to 5 after sustained mediocrity and jump again to 6 seven seasons later following an average of 77 wins
and Fan Interest in the low 60s.

Market Size does not appear to change by any combination of factors involving Fan Loyalty. Consistently great teams will drop in Market Size as often as bad teams will increase Market Size. The previously mentioned California Angels would see two Market Size increases throughout the next 20 seasons despite averaging sub 500 baseball. It almost appears that past attendance may drive Market size regardless of record. Teams seeing an increase in Market Size almost always sold close to capacity the preceding seasons, and those seeing a drop performed poorly in comparison. (sharing because this may be an example of it being worth dropping ticket prices substantially to improve Market if it is true).

The Issue:

Many players both Online and in Solo leagues are under the impression that simply having sustained success with their team will improve the situation of their favorite small market team. In non-revenue sharing online leagues, this is exasperated by the idea that you can make your team competitive over time, and that those with big market teams earned their advantage via past success. This can obviously cause frustration.

Suggestion:

Make an exception to explain how the under the hood mechanics work in this specific aspect. We need the transparency because it looks like a LOT of misinformation is being shared under the best of intentions that is causing frustration to your player base that plays these smaller market teams.
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Old 08-12-2018, 11:43 AM   #2
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A quick way to see the Fan Interest Modifier - go to Team Page, click on "Settings". About 1/2 way down the page, left side is your fan interest, fan interest modifier, fan loyalty and market size.
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Old 08-12-2018, 11:54 AM   #3
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Just a reminder in case someone goes looking and does not find it... must be in commissioner mode to see the modifier
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Old 08-12-2018, 01:00 PM   #4
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i don't have the screen in front of me. so, if the vocab is off, use common sense to correct me.

loyalty
interest
modifier

loyalty will go up with sustained success over time, or it should and has in the past. this will move slowly.

interest is basically like you said... mostly about your current state and reacts to day-to-day things like wins/losses and personnel moves etc. (also, +/- the modifier at all times) if i recall, interst dips toward the loyalty value at end of season as a reset of sorts?

that would make sense... they ride the bandwagon in a good season, then come next they think it's missouri again. (show me state)

if it's not going up, i'd guess that they maintain a consistent negative or zero fan interest modifier which would be caused by consistently making moves that upset the fan base and not enough moves to offset that effect.

e.g. i used to never bother signing arb 1yr deals. it seemingly had not repercussion relative to my context, but if i sign the popular ones each year even when they don't want a long-term deal or i don't want them long-term, then i get a boost to fan interest from that signing each and every year during club control years. you don't get that boost for arb deals. i'll even overpay 500k, if needed. i almost always have cushion.

that's a good chunk to offset constant attrition. especially if you trade away stars 29-32. i still find ways to keep my fans happy. if i see it going down i do something about it that is not a detriment to my long-term success, of course.

a little dip is no problem... a consistent trend downward is. recognized the difference based on what's to come in near future with players and fa signings losses etc. i know when i have to maximize the small stuff (+1 or2) or pander to fans a bit more in dire circumstances. you can see that stuff coming. it's no surprise.

Last edited by NoOne; 08-12-2018 at 01:03 PM.
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Old 08-12-2018, 02:15 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NoOne View Post

loyalty will go up with sustained success over time, or it should and has in the past. this will move slowly..
That is point I am trying to make. We have been sharing this for quite some time as something we all remember seeing, but so far testing is showing this is not what happens. I am cheating my pants off in a league right now to test this with the Houston Astros as they are a team I have historically seen show little improvement (I never play them, but pretty consistently see them as a small market team).

Right now, off of 3 70 year runs (60 team leagues) and the one I am currently testing... Fan Loyalty changes appear random. That's looking at 180 teams over 70 seasons each and just looking at the cases where Fan Loyalty had a change in either direction.

Until this morning when I really started looking at the data, I also would have said Fan Loyalty changed with sustained success.
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Old 08-12-2018, 02:21 PM   #6
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https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

This Google Doc should be viewable by anyone curious about the last run. It's the export for financial history for the league. Fair warning, it's a lot of data so it is HUGE.

If anyone can find a fairly consistent way Fan Loyalty changes based on the data I would appreciate it. Thanks
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Old 08-13-2018, 09:18 PM   #7
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Hi quillenl,

I created a thread on this topic last month and my conclusion was similar to yours in that sustained winning brings no tangible change to either the market size or fan loyalty.

I suspect many people are still under the misperception that sustained winning can change either because fan loyalty and market size do seem to increase with sustained winning in prior OOTP versions.

I have done some testing myself using two teams: Chicago White Sox (a notoriously small market with terrible fan loyalty and low fan interest) and Detroit Tigers (mid-market team with average fan interest), and here are what I found:

1. There appears to be no connection between winning and market size. Market size seems to change at random.

2. A sustained success will increase fan loyalty for teams with terrible fan loyalty ratings; teams that already have above average or higher fan loyalty ratings would rarely see increase in fan loyalty.

3. Fan interest will gradually increase after a string of winning seasons. Signing popular players will provide a brief bump in fan interest due to interest modifier, but the bump will eventually disappear and your fan interest will go back to its earlier level.

As such, I have arrived to the same conclusion as yours in that in OOTP19, it becomes extremely boring to play a small market team since players cannot improve the team's financial situation (because fan loyalty and market size are hard to improve) even when the team has a string of winning seasons. In the past, having 2 or 3 90+ win seasons would bring about a bump in fan loyalty (and perhaps in market size as well), and thus, improving the team's financial strength. But in OOTP19, that no longer appears to be possible. It is a frustrating experience for players who enjoy leading a small market team and developing the market and fan loyalty, but such opportunity lamentably is gone.
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Old Yesterday, 05:49 AM   #8
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I've been under the impression that Loyalty increases over time when you do things that fans like. e.g. not raising ticket prices every time Interest is high (selling out stadium even if it means losing potential revenue); resigning core/popular players even as they get older; and winning.

Sounds like the winning part isn't panning out. Is it possible to test the other two?

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Old Yesterday, 08:50 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Trauma One View Post
I've been under the impression that Loyalty increases over time when you do things that fans like. e.g. not raising ticket prices every time Interest is high (selling out stadium even if it means losing potential revenue); resigning core/popular players even as they get older; and winning.

Sounds like the winning part isn't panning out. Is it possible to test the other two?
Hey Trauma,

In my testing, I have always left the ticket price alone, so I cannot say whether having a sold out stadium would change the loyalty or not. But given my results showing that fan loyalty would still be stuck even after 4 or 5 seasons of winning 90+ games, I am inclined to believe that keeping the ticket price low would not improve the fan loyalty.

As for signing popular players, I have found that doing such would temporarily improve the fan interest by changing the modifier, but that bump would go away over the course of the season.
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Old Yesterday, 10:33 AM   #10
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if you have evidence, as it looks like you do, post in bugs. don't bother talking to the peanut gallery here. didn't click the docs... anyone run a linear regression? lol.

i'm still playing '18 . another patch it seems and i'll switch.
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Old Yesterday, 01:03 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NoOne View Post
if you have evidence, as it looks like you do, post in bugs. don't bother talking to the peanut gallery here. didn't click the docs... anyone run a linear regression? lol.

i'm still playing '18 . another patch it seems and i'll switch.
Not sure why people's responses here warrant your cavalier and dismissive attitude. How can we be sure that the result is due to a bug and not creator's own design? And why is it that discussing patterns of findings must be relegated to bug report but not to this "peanut gallery?"

By the way, since we are talking about winning to the change in fan loyalty, and fan loyalty is not a continuous variable, you would not be running a liner regression; instead you would need to use logistic regression. And since our central question is whether the change in winning/losing games would change fan loyalty at some time during the sim, then one might even consider a survival analysis.

I also found it to be particularly rich that despite not even owning OOTP19, you had no problem talking to the peanut gallery all the while telling those who own and play OOTP19 to stop discussing findings about OOTP19. May I ask if you could extend the same kindness you reserved for yourself to others as well?

Everyone has so far had a polite conversation, please refrain from put-downs.

Last edited by ipodiipodi; Yesterday at 04:52 PM.
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Old Yesterday, 11:06 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ipodiipodi View Post
Not sure why people's responses here warrant your cavalier and dismissive attitude. How can we be sure that the result is due to a bug and not creator's own design? And why is it that discussing patterns of findings must be relegated to bug report but not to this "peanut gallery?"

By the way, since we are talking about winning to the change in fan loyalty, and fan loyalty is not a continuous variable, you would not be running a liner regression; instead you would need to use logistic regression. And since our central question is whether the change in winning/losing games would change fan loyalty at some time during the sim, then one might even consider a survival analysis.

I also found it to be particularly rich that despite not even owning OOTP19, you had no problem talking to the peanut gallery all the while telling those who own and play OOTP19 to stop discussing findings about OOTP19. May I ask if you could extend the same kindness you reserved for yourself to others as well?

Everyone has so far had a polite conversation, please refrain from put-downs.
i was making fun of myself, as well ==> me being in the peanut gallery and replying. i think you've gotten a bit upset over spillt milk, here, lol. technically, you weren't even in the 'peanut gallery' i mentioned.. only peanut gallery members may use that term, please. it's like nerf-herders from star wars.

if it's not moving up anymore, that is not right for sure.

linear regression to determine correlation would be enough relative to what was inferred. if it was near zero for winpct over time, there's clearly somethign different from the past. (not the same with market size -- if at all, an extremely weak correlation for mkts)

there's a finite number of variables that we can see in ootp relative to this context. not much else can be a factor - wins, playoff appearances, ws, some sort of cumulative rating system like how they do morale or just qualifications that result in a change etc etc -- whatever it was, it definitely moved with success in my experience. unless they specifically changed thingsas to how loyalty changes over time, it's a bug. no one in the peanut gallery will know this info for sure. i am not alone in remembering that continued sucess raises loyalty over time.

something is different and seemingly not moving up based on what i am reading in this thread for ootp'19. that's nearly certain and worth a post for sure. that's the whole point i post here before bugs to bounce ideas off to avoid simple self-inflicted mistake or just plain mistaken perception. in this case i was clearly saying i don't think you have a misperception, i think something is wrong, or willfully changed, otherwise.

Last edited by NoOne; Yesterday at 11:12 PM.
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Old Today, 08:58 AM   #13
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You are right, I sounded too aggressive in my prior post. For that, I sincerely apologize.
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Old Today, 04:39 PM   #14
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I am not sure anything is wrong, or that anything is necessarily different from how it worked in the past. I primarily shared because I thought there might be others interested in sharing data.

I am currently slowly working my way through a test league and having a lot of success in both Market Size and Fan Loyalty by maintaining high attendance. This is challenging to maintain (high attendance, low win loss record) so I am cheating my pants off, but will be quite a while before I have 3 seasons done and can show it to be consistent.

Maybe it's slower, I dunno... I am not comparing it to past versions of the game, it's enough for me to have a better understanding of how it works now. I play Online a bit, so understanding how Market Size increases is important to me as it is a huge disadvantage to not, and an even bigger disadvantage to think you do... but be wrong

But please, do not construe anything I said previously as comparing it to previous versions as I am not looking at that at all. Interest was low, so I am not beating the dead horse, but will continue to test as it has pretty strong personal benefits.
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