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Old 03-26-2017, 08:47 PM   #21
sansterre
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Okay, this may be more detailed than you'd like but that's how I roll. I tend to be stats/analysis oriented over traditional, so take the following with an appropriate grain of salt.

1) Not to paraphrase Peter Brand in Moneyball, but don't think about buying players (a closer, a pitcher, a second baseman); think about buying wins. These are most easily captured with the WAR (Wins Above Replacement level) stat, which is pretty much perfect (except for relief pitchers; because your best relievers more often pitch in situations where the game is on the line, their performance is slightly more valuable than their WAR indicates).

2) If your team puts up, between all players, zero WAR then you should expect to have won 46 games or so. Every WAR you add gives you another win (give or take). Your team needs about 35 WAR to be average, 45 WAR to have a real shot at the playoffs (that's 91 wins), 50 WAR to have a great shot at the playoffs (96 wins) and 55+ WAR for a monster team.

2a) For quick reference for WAR (assuming you're not familiar): 0 WAR is a complete scrub, 1 WAR is a poor starter, 2 WAR is a solid starter, 3 WAR is a good player, 4 WAR is an excellent player, borderline all-star, 5 WAR is an all-star, one of the best at their position, 7 WAR is one of the very best in the league at any position and 10+ WAR is an all-time great performance/player. A team with five 2-WAR SPs, 9 2-WAR batters and 7 WAR between their bench and bullpen is 35 WAR, which is a completely average team.

3) So this is your goal; assembling a team that will combine for 50 WAR or so.

4) The next challenge is money. You only have so much money to acquire those 50 WAR. Players acquired different ways cost different amounts of money because of the way the MLB salary structure works.

4a) The first three years a player you control is in the majors, you pay them league minimum, which is $571k or so. For these three years they are incredibly valuable to you. Consider a player worth 2 WAR (decent starter) who is in his first three years. 2 WAR is nothing to brag about, but if you have five of those players you're already 10 WAR to your 50 WAR goal but you've only had to spend $3mill to get there. This is what makes prospects so sexy; the more good young players earning the minimum you have in the majors the more money you have to buy the remaining WAR you need.

4b) The next three years players are in "arbitration". This means that for years 4, 5 and 6 they will generally make 50%, 65% and 80% (estimates) of their free agent cost. This makes them more salary-efficient than free agents, but much less efficient than players in their first three years. So here's the rule of thumb; be controlled with whom you offer arbitration. The 5-WAR SP who is estimated to get $8 million? Arbitration. The 2-WAR 2B who is estimated to get $900k? Arbitration. The 0.3 WAR MR who is estimated to get $1.1 mill? Screw him. The 1.1 WAR OF who is estimated to get $2.7 mill? Screw him.

4c) Don't be stupid with arbitration; replacement level is a powerful concept. The closer to 0 WAR a player is, the more easily you can grab a spare somewhere else at an affordable price. If your farm system is worth anything you should be able to produce 0-1 WAR players on demand relatively easily. And you should be able to snag 1-2 WAR players in free agency for under 2 million, in theory.

4d) Free Agency / Extensions. This is the most expensive way to get players. Not saying that you can't get good deals this way, you can, but it's still pretty costly. This is where you got every player that isn't in their first three years / arbitration. Be wary of the excitement of a big free agent signing or extension. Players get worse as they get older. Imagine a 5-WAR 29 year-old whose extension request is 8 yrs at $20 mill per. $20 million for 5 WAR? That's pretty reasonable at $4mill per WAR. But they won't be 5 WAR forever. In 8 years they'll be 37 and they sure as heck won't be 5 WAR then; you'll be lucky if they're 2-3 WAR. Long-term deals become burdens very often; watch out.

4e) So, now what? A lot depends on your team's payroll budget. If you have $200 million to spend on payroll then you're needing to average $4mill per WAR, which is near free agent levels. In this case you can afford to be pretty aggressive in free agency and worry less about prospects. Packaging your valuable prospects for great players is much more palatable in such a case because you have the money to pay those great players and you don't really need the efficiency of those young players. But imagine that you're a super-poor team who is working with a payroll of $50 million. You need to be averaging only $1 million per WAR, which means your team will need to be made up of almost exclusively young players in the first three years or arbitration, and in some cases, you won't be able to keep them for their full three arb years because it will get too inefficient. Your team operation must be centered on only picking up replaceable cheap pieces from free agency, and be constantly trading away young players approaching free agency for new prospects to keep the cycle going. Getting 50 WAR this way is really, really hard but you'll find that this isn't really your goal. But I'll get to that in a second.

5) Team finances evolve. While your owner and market do set the baseline, how your team is playing affects your budget. Take a $250 million team but give them a series of 60-win years and they'll drop by 10-20 million each year (if not more). Take a $70 million team but give them a series of 85-90 win seasons and they'll probably pick up another $5 million a year. So when I was talking about working with super-tight teams, your journey to 50 WAR (if you do it right) should lead you to 35 and 40 WAR, and by 40 WAR you should start growing your budget with your performance. As you raise your budget the path to 50 WAR should become more and more easy.

5b) This is an aside on long-term contracts. If you're making the playoffs your budget will go up (or stay the same if it's already high). There are contracts for players that make sense if you're a repeat playoff team (the $20/yr 8 year deal for example) that stop being good if you're not winning. It's all too easy to sign a bunch of bigger deals when you're winning, then have a few off-years, have your budget crater by $20-40 million and suddenly be crushed under the weight of these big contracts that only made sense when you were competitive. Such deals can turn a few off-years into full-on rebuilding by crippling your ability to work with a tighter budget. Be wary.

5c)

This is a chart of how much adding an individual win to a team adds to that team's revenue. You'll note that for any team winning less than 80 games, adding a win is worth only $750k to the team. It's only when a team starts going above 500 that wins become more valuable, climaxing at a $4.5 million to go from 90 to 91 wins. You shouldn't take this too seriously per se, but it illustrates an important point. Don't ever trade prospects away to jump from 65 to 70 wins. There's almost no point. Losing is losing. If you're patient and smart the wins will take care of themselves. If you're thinking of doubling down to jump from 85 to 90 wins, or 90 to 95 wins, go for it. I mean, if you have the room in your budget to buy in free agency do so; you always want your team to be as good as possible. But you never ever want to sacrifice your future to do it; try and keep your FA deals (as far as filling in spots when your team isn't in contention) to one year if possible.

6) Evaluating how good your team is can be one of the hardest and most important parts of the game. If, going into the season, you believe your team is a 25 WAR team (70 wins), then you should play them very conservatively and build prospect depth. But if you believe that your team is a 45 WAR team (90 wins) you should be playing aggressively for trades (prospects for stars) and perhaps even in free agency. And yet the two may look the same from many points of view.

6a) Consider this: even ignoring injuries (which by themselves can cost a team a lot of wins) 80% of the time a team's win total will be within ten wins of it's true talent. That means that a true 80-win team will win between 70 and 90 wins 80% of the time, which means that 10% of the time they will win less than 70, and 10% of the time they will win more than 90. Again, this team is just average. It's only random variation that has them do well or badly; a combination of luck in games and players having up or down years. It's kind of like how a 260 hitter will hit between 241 and 279 68% of the time, another 27% of the time they'll hit between 223 and 241 or between 279 and 300. And another 2.5% of the time they'll hit below 223 and 2.5% of the time they'll hit above 300. This is a long way of saying that you need to be dispassionate about trying to figure out what's actually going on with your team/player. If you just won 90 last year and you think that's a true reflection of your team's ability, double-down. But if you just won 90 out of luck (and you're team is more in the 80-85 range) then doubling down will likely hurt your long-term without helping your short-term much. Be patient and be objective.

7) One really quick addon; bring your prospects to the majors as late as you can. Until they're on your 25-man roster their major league timer doesn't start. Since the players develop better in the minors your best bet is not to bring up your good prospects until they're at or approaching their peak. If you're in a playoff push obviously, all bets are off.

tl;dr Always figure you need to field 50 WAR from all your players and plan your finances accordingly. Never sacrifice the future for the present unless it pushes you from 90 to 95+ wins.

Thanks for reading; I know this was a lot
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Old 03-26-2017, 09:42 PM   #22
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Be willing to adjust what you value. your league's setup can heavily influence what is "best" and what isn't as good, emprically. dont' get caught up in dogamatic nonsense or group think. allow facts to dictate at all times, not feelings.

in some eras power isn't that important compared to contact... but in modern default LTM/LT, it's very important to a "better" offense.

simply put, you won't crack ~1000 runs without power up and down your lineup.... you can have all the speed and sacrifice bunters you want, lol, it won't compare to an offense that hits over 200+ HR every year.

when the 30 team league hits a total of 1000hr, power is significantly less important than modern defaults.

so, as someone said it depends alot on those settings as far as player evaluation in your league.,..


some strategy tips should apply to all...

e.g. regular season success vs playof success? how are they different in your league.. i will use modern default as example.

5sp vs 4sp in playoffs.... so, if you have an excellent team and need to start watching your pennies (good thing no type-o, eh), you probably shouldn't spend extra cash on a 5th starter who won't even be useful in the playoffs.

so, recognize what is important to winning in playoffs vs regular season... you cannot completely ignore the regular season-only stuff, but it should take a back seat to winning inthe playoffs.

understand how many elite-level contracts your revenue can handle. stay strict about this.... if you ever run into a financial situation like a forced salaray dump it is 100% your fault for getting into that situation. a little forethought should avoid all "forced" decisions. you'll probably notice in RL these are genarlly the GM that don't last long, lol... financial management is SO easy... just make an effort.

spend your money every year! i cannot stress this enough.. and i do not mean only on player payroll...

every other year you can buy international amateurs, en masse. do so. most don't turn out, who cares.. that money would just be going to your owner... this will even influence when i get rid of a heavy contract... more money to spend in a year i buy up tons of int'l amateur free agents.

have a hard cap on int'l amatuers? (new this year)... then, make sure you max scouting and development as much as you can, at all times... this requires a little forethought and understanding of team building over time - not just one year. you should know fairly closely how much discretionary income you have in the offseason and pump it back into scouting and development.

I generally shoot for a profit of Max Cash on Hand setting, but that's specifically for a year in which i need just a little more... so i let that carry-over all years except for the ones i need a little extra... it's a fall-back $10M, that does get spent eventually or it is really worthless to you.

player contracts... be smart... if you get stuck with a 10/5 guy or some 38yo who played well last year but is crap now, it's your own doing... pay attention better, lol.

you take riskes with aged players, that's your fault... better not be depending on them for anythign important.

if you sign a guy into late ages, make sure you trade him before he can veto.

pay attention to your salaries reoprt from your team's Front Office. this can tell you how soon you need a SS or a CF etc... amongst other things.

if you have no international leagues, do not spend money in international scouting... in '17 this did not affect accuracy of those int'l ama FA. i'm not sure if that remains true in '18, but you should look into it... do one year with 0-1% budget and then make use of comissioner mode in editor ... scroll through the players an dsee that the better ones are all at the top when sorted by potential = not affecting accuracy. (need baseline of a 'normal' budget year or better a huge budget in comparison... you'll see that the better ones are misrated in the same ways and same frequency.

Last edited by NoOne; 03-26-2017 at 09:49 PM.
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Old 03-26-2017, 10:05 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by sansterre View Post
Okay, this may be more detailed than you'd like....
Just wanted to say, I feel like I'm pretty good at OOTP, and I knew alot of this already, but major props for this post. OP, and others looking for tips, this is a great place to start. Really well laid-out.
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Old 03-27-2017, 04:35 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by NoOne View Post
Be willing to adjust what you value. your league's setup can heavily influence what is "best" and what isn't as good, emprically. dont' get caught up in dogamatic nonsense or group think. allow facts to dictate at all times, not feelings.

in some eras power isn't that important compared to contact... but in modern default LTM/LT, it's very important to a "better" offense.

simply put, you won't crack ~1000 runs without power up and down your lineup.... you can have all the speed and sacrifice bunters you want, lol, it won't compare to an offense that hits over 200+ HR every year.

when the 30 team league hits a total of 1000hr, power is significantly less important than modern defaults.

so, as someone said it depends alot on those settings as far as player evaluation in your league.,..


some strategy tips should apply to all...

e.g. regular season success vs playof success? how are they different in your league.. i will use modern default as example.

5sp vs 4sp in playoffs.... so, if you have an excellent team and need to start watching your pennies (good thing no type-o, eh), you probably shouldn't spend extra cash on a 5th starter who won't even be useful in the playoffs.

so, recognize what is important to winning in playoffs vs regular season... you cannot completely ignore the regular season-only stuff, but it should take a back seat to winning inthe playoffs.

understand how many elite-level contracts your revenue can handle. stay strict about this.... if you ever run into a financial situation like a forced salaray dump it is 100% your fault for getting into that situation. a little forethought should avoid all "forced" decisions. you'll probably notice in RL these are genarlly the GM that don't last long, lol... financial management is SO easy... just make an effort.

spend your money every year! i cannot stress this enough.. and i do not mean only on player payroll...

every other year you can buy international amateurs, en masse. do so. most don't turn out, who cares.. that money would just be going to your owner... this will even influence when i get rid of a heavy contract... more money to spend in a year i buy up tons of int'l amateur free agents.

have a hard cap on int'l amatuers? (new this year)... then, make sure you max scouting and development as much as you can, at all times... this requires a little forethought and understanding of team building over time - not just one year. you should know fairly closely how much discretionary income you have in the offseason and pump it back into scouting and development.

I generally shoot for a profit of Max Cash on Hand setting, but that's specifically for a year in which i need just a little more... so i let that carry-over all years except for the ones i need a little extra... it's a fall-back $10M, that does get spent eventually or it is really worthless to you.

player contracts... be smart... if you get stuck with a 10/5 guy or some 38yo who played well last year but is crap now, it's your own doing... pay attention better, lol.

you take riskes with aged players, that's your fault... better not be depending on them for anythign important.

if you sign a guy into late ages, make sure you trade him before he can veto.

pay attention to your salaries reoprt from your team's Front Office. this can tell you how soon you need a SS or a CF etc... amongst other things.

if you have no international leagues, do not spend money in international scouting... in '17 this did not affect accuracy of those int'l ama FA. i'm not sure if that remains true in '18, but you should look into it... do one year with 0-1% budget and then make use of comissioner mode in editor ... scroll through the players an dsee that the better ones are all at the top when sorted by potential = not affecting accuracy. (need baseline of a 'normal' budget year or better a huge budget in comparison... you'll see that the better ones are misrated in the same ways and same frequency.


Thanks for the help. I can tell you took my question seriously. Much appreciated.


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Old 03-27-2017, 06:33 PM   #25
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I forgot - look into pricing tickets as high as you can at all times... when you learn how high you can go for reasonable Wins expected, choose that Max price for season ticket price (must speculate wins for upcoming season to guess right max value -> from experience eventually. it will not reduce attendance (as of '17).. from there either apply some calculus or trial and error to maximize ticket revenue. this is one fo the few revenue streams you can actively manage and make more money... more money = wins. you will find that in in some situations that you will make more money when you sell fewer season tikets.

Assumption about that: winning season, you will want to sell fewer season tickets and losing season you want to sell more (referenceing % of total tickets sold as more/less).

Not an assumption: as you win more you cna up that price... if that is above season ticket price for a long enough period of time ( >1 independent variables at play here - calculus needed to find max total ticket revenue), you are definitely making less revenue than you optimally could have. this is basis for previous paragraph. defintiely applies to winning season, the assumption above was about losing seasons...


i like alot of the stuff sansterre says, too... although my application of those concepts is much different. if you interpret advanced stats as absolute or 100% accurate you will not use them as intended.

WAR is not tailored to roles, think of it like the forums recommend not paying much attention to overall - for the same exact reasons. League statistical environment is much different than when that equation was created - has it been adjusted to reflect htese chagnes over time, is that built into it? Regardless, it's still not 100% accurate and never can be due to its nature. Spending inefficiently can be a very good decision with zero repercussions in many situations that will arise without a 1-year tunnel vision.

sometimes the conepts expressed inthat post isn't from the right perspective. e.g. time is continuous, not exlcusive to 1 year's budget. Spending inefficiently can be a boon in many situations. However, it's defintely a dangerous toy to play with, if not good with financial management.

overall, war, ops+, contact (in game),... these are aggregates of multiple factors. this makes them less usfeul, but also more useful depending on context.

3war is not necessarily better than 2war... 75contact is not necesarly better than 70 contact. But, it is probably more likely that they are, just not any guarantee... that's all you can say with certainty (depends alot on ltm/lt of walks and BA etc etc the statistical environment of your league, not the MLB)

contact is only comprised of 3 factors, while the others mention contain more... it's better than war or ops+ relative to what it describes, but still has similar pitfalls. (babip, avoid K and power = contact rating... not all combinations that equate to "70" will be the same results.. and even more different per league statistical environment)

think about QBR or QB rating... it most defintieyl correlates to the best players, but does not perfectly define them in some instances. Same exact reasons... QBR is an advnaced stat for the NFL, not unlike war or ops+. it attempts to considers many factors and attempts to weight them logically (essentially).

the foundation of these advanced stats are not sound, yet, even if the basic theory involved is incontrevertably correct... don't put more stock in them than they are worth. the concepts may be incontrevertable, but application and equations are often poor at the moment. one only has to look at defensive metrics to see the worst of this.

not all positions and roles are the same and cannot be evauluated with a one-sized fits all statistic. A lead-off hitter is completely different thna a 3-4-5 hitter.

i use ratings that relate to the skills i want at various spots in my lineup. i do essentially hte smae thing as overall, but i am tailoring it to need.

as far as what i am wiling to pay... i definteyl won't draw a hard and fast line in teh sand based on WAR. i am a stickler, don't get me wrong, here. i let expensive players leave all the time. i have absolutely no emotional attachment in this regard and very willing to do so when it has merit. but if you don't scale it to your budget, you are applying the concet wrong, unless your budget is league average every year. ther are other moving parts and factors to consider when choosing how much you will pay, beside $/war and whether it says it is worth it.

once you know min/max ranges for various quality of players, it's an easy decision and relative to all near future budgets involved. i recognize immediately when a player is asking for too much. i don't need an equation, and you can't be so strict about that demarcation of efficient/innefficient... it needs some give... it needs a point of no return (let them go), but that's not 1 value without range calculated by deviding by WAR, which is inherently imprecise.

the differences between having a good player and accruing one needs to be considered, too. one is much easier than the other.. the question is whether it's worht it... i'd suggest this: if you rarely have budget problems, you probably need to spend more or are just about right... if you constantly have budget problems, you need to be stricter about how much you are willing to pay for various results.

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Old 03-27-2017, 07:42 PM   #26
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One thing to take note of when looking at Free Agents/Waiver Wire players while tying into WAR (and OPS+/ERA+)

Check out their splits at Home and on the Road. A pitcher with decent rate stats (say 6.0 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9) will likely look much better on paper coming out of Dodger Stadium or Petco Park compared to say Wrigley Field or Citizens Bank Park.

This can also be applied to minor leaguers. Maybe they have good ratings but are awful stat wise only for you to find out they have slash lines of .270/.325/.380 at home (due to it being an extreme pitcher's park) but have a more robust .290/.360/.425 line on the road. Then you look at your AAA park, see it's pretty neutral and you have a reasonable expectation of what they could deliver (or even how they'd potentially look in your big league park).

For me, this aspect is most beneficial if you want a cheap power slugger who's say 34 or 35 years old. Think Frank Thomas towards the end of his career for Oakland and Toronto. Maybe you have a great infield and think you can get by with a '35' rated 1B defensively who can pop off 20-25 HRs with a decent OBP.
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Old 03-28-2017, 04:37 AM   #27
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I would like to see an email sent to the GM when a new player is added to the Waiver Wire so it is not necessary to check every day. The message could be simple "New players have been added to the waiver wire". It does not need to get complicated and list the players although that would also be nice. Make it easy for the player to be aware of all the changes that occur.


I've developed a rotation of screens that I at the start of each day and the Wavier Wire is one that is in the rotation, but I start skipping it after a while because it is usually empty. I assume I've missed a few good players because of this.


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I believe at the upper left corner of the manager's office front page a message will show up saying that someone on the waiver wire may interest you.

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Old 03-28-2017, 04:36 PM   #28
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How do you view a players Arbitration estimates?


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Old 03-28-2017, 04:45 PM   #29
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How do you view a players Arbitration estimates?


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There are several ways, I'm not in front of the game right now but one that I can think of off the top of my head is to go into "front office" then "salaries", every player will have an arbitration estimate. It doesn't project improvement , I don't think, so each year's estimate will be the same, but it will give you a pretty good idea of what you're looking at for each player.

It also will give you an idea of all of the random guys you've called up and put on league minimum salaries
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Old 03-28-2017, 04:50 PM   #30
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Does anyone have simple tips to succeed? Been playing OOTP for awhile and never have steady success.
My top 3:

1. Starting pitching depth with at least two aces
2. At least three big bullpen arms
3. Elite catcher "arm" to shut down running game of opposition
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Old 03-29-2017, 03:28 AM   #31
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NoOne's two posts here are excellent information.
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Old 03-29-2017, 09:00 AM   #32
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How do you view a players Arbitration estimates?


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you'll get used to it after a while... it's based on %'s of baseline salaries in your league.

Only going to reference Max values you'll likely see in a modern financial environment on default.

if they continue to perform roughly the same as when they get their first contract, expect it to nearly double each year. it won't escalate as quickly as performance and talent is lower... may even stagnate for some.

Position is another key to arb salary. RP get much smaller contracts and obviously won't escalate as high. sp and regulars will get the largest ones, if they perform well.

think with "2017" year's defaults they should get much above ~20M or so. maybe a closer gets to 15-16M tops, but a reliever won't typically go a whole lot higher than 10-12M unless putting up HoF #'s.

then you can work back from those #'s to the 1.5-6M they get in year 1 of arbitration depeding on role.
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Old 03-29-2017, 10:02 AM   #33
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Just remember Who's on 2nd
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Old 03-29-2017, 10:04 AM   #34
ThePretender
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One thing I'll suggest is recognize what is being valued in your league, and what isn't. You're getting a lot of tips here, for instance, that say "You need a catcher arm" or "you need ____". Well, that means that a lot of people are willing to pay (in terms of talent, assets, or money) for that skillset.

So, for instance, if you play in a league where people value defense highly, then a smart thing to do is find slightly lesser defenders with good bats, and acquire them. Or if low power, high gap guys are undervalued, go for that.

What you want to do is find productive players while giving up the least amount of talent/asset/cash you can.

In one league guys highly value defence - they'd play 90-100 defenders that have an 80 OPS+/wRC+, because they want good defence. To the point where that player is hurting their lineup. So I'll trade them those guys and get a ton in return, and when I need a player, I'll look for a 70-75 defender with a better bat, who I can acquire for less talent. In another league, defence is undervalued, so I'll flip 50-60 defenders with good bats for lots of talent, and acquire high defensive players with good bats on the cheap.

Likewise, you hear a lot of "catcher arm/ability helps your staff". True, it does, but if people are crazy for it, then get a catcher with more offence and less defence. You'll get a productive player, and it likely will cost less to acquire because the demand isn't there.

Your goal should be to find what is undervalued, and acquire that cheaply, and to trade what is overvalued in your league. That way you can build a productive team, without giving up a lot of your assets, and get a lot of assets back in return for players you know are overvalued by the market.

A lot of people watch/read Moneyball, but they forget how to apply it in game because they "need" a particular skill/team. Don't forget that your job is to win by selling high and buying low. It sounds simple, but people get caught up in cliches or what they perceive to be valuable, and it's important to take advantage and buy productive players without giving up full value for them.
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Old 03-30-2017, 12:12 AM   #35
Chathamillini
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I've begun to use these tips. I'm 3 seasons in to a Rockies rebuild and this 4th will be my breakout year. I just know it. Thanks for the help. I've greatly improved every season since reading your tips.


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Old 03-30-2017, 04:04 AM   #36
Ghost Town
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chathamillini View Post
I've begun to use these tips. I'm 3 seasons in to a Rockies rebuild and this 4th will be my breakout year. I just know it. Thanks for the help. I've greatly improved every season since reading your tips.


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My OOTP18 4th year breakout story:

I started with the San Diego Padres -- 30th in budget and player payroll.

First three seasons went .469, .469, and .383 (was worried I was going to get fired and lose all the energy I'd invested into the rebuild).

Just finished my 4th season -- .556 and a wildcard spot, parlayed into a surprise World Series Championship!

(Watching the winning game in the 3D model was outstanding!)

Good luck with your 4th year breakout!

Oh, and I managed a season-end score of 1020/1000!
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Old 07-17-2018, 04:29 PM   #37
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Player extensions

Yasmani Grandal is looking for a 9 year extension for about 25 million AAV. a raise of about 18 million per year. How is this realistic. When I offer something along the lines of 5 years and 16 million per, he gets upset and raises his offer even more. WTF!!
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