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Old 01-20-2019, 05:24 PM   #1
Gruber_Tagged_Him
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My 37-yr old Ervin Santana experience is getting weird

In total desperation (pitching staff ravaged by injuries) I traded a lottery ticket for Santana, just looking for somebody to eat innings and save my bullpen. Didn't expect I'd keep him for more that a few starts.He had been pretty awful for LAA in 2019/2020, with a 5.80 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, and declining K/9 stats.


He has now started 10 games for me.


6-2. 2.18 ERA. 0.98 WHIP. He is averaging 7 IP per start.


Now to look a bit deeper at the numbers:


- BABIP .187
- K/9 at an all-time low of 4.9 - he's walking more guys too

- FIP 5.17
- WAR 0.4 rWar 3.1


OK. I have a good defence, but not THIS good. I am awaiting the inevitable train wreck, but wow it has been a fun ride. I have a little Ervin dance that I do whenever he gives up a single, a walk, hits a guy, then gets out of it with no runs scored...
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Old 01-20-2019, 09:56 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gruber_Tagged_Him View Post
In total desperation (pitching staff ravaged by injuries) I traded a lottery ticket for Santana, just looking for somebody to eat innings and save my bullpen. Didn't expect I'd keep him for more that a few starts.He had been pretty awful for LAA in 2019/2020, with a 5.80 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, and declining K/9 stats.


He has now started 10 games for me.


6-2. 2.18 ERA. 0.98 WHIP. He is averaging 7 IP per start.


Now to look a bit deeper at the numbers:


- BABIP .187
- K/9 at an all-time low of 4.9 - he's walking more guys too

- FIP 5.17
- WAR 0.4 rWar 3.1


OK. I have a good defence, but not THIS good. I am awaiting the inevitable train wreck, but wow it has been a fun ride. I have a little Ervin dance that I do whenever he gives up a single, a walk, hits a guy, then gets out of it with no runs scored...
Wow...a 2.18 ERA/5.17 FIP, with a .187 BABIP? Yep, I'd say there's a train wreck on the way. Fingers crossed that it happens next season with another team.
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Old 01-20-2019, 10:43 PM   #3
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I want Santana's recommendations of lottery numbers!
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Old 01-21-2019, 10:02 AM   #4
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Had a similar thing happen to me and Chris Tillman. Signed him early in the season after injuries in my rotation and he was pitching so well despite terrible peripheral stats, he even made the All Star Team! After that though, he finally got shelled like I was expecting and ended up releasing him
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Old 01-21-2019, 11:55 AM   #5
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the SP the tigers had for a ~year was a king of this. he was the one that threw that weird "euphis" [sic] pitch occasionally too.

he had a couple excellent half seasons without enought of a sample to fully flesh him out... but a ton of his 'other' numbers indicated exactly what you can deduce from this guy --> a dumpster fire wating to happen. the sports writers in the area that are adamantly anti-intellectuals jumped on this bandwagon constantly referencing his other half season of good results based on the most superficial numbers and in many cases the least correlative to actual performance.

if his overall has ticked up due to recent resutls (AI evaluation including stats etc), you should look for a sucker trade partner. someone that doesn't believe in basic math, like most detroit sports reporters

you'll get a lot more for him now than after he takes a dive, if this is the case... at age 37, it might not matter, though. a throw-in for a later trade provides more value than a 6-month lease in a losing season.

---tangential nonsense below... read at own risk...

fwiw, they aren't journalists - sports writers. they are opiners and editorialists at best. they rarely avoid logical fallacies and it ends up resembling more of a male-soap opera than any good information on local teams, lol. ffs, the # of grammatical errors in a professional publication is astounding in the destroit newspapers - both. i'm almost certain that when they write an article they don't even read it over. also, they have more than a few 'seasonal articles' that they just swap out a few names and re-write a few sentences. heck, i've read the same exact artical less than 2 weeks later and it wasn't even editted or changed in any meaningful way. this one is good too: i've seen 2 articles that were a mish-mash of each other... i think one did have a littel additional information, but otherwise mostly the same in a slightly different order... or that chunk of info inserted intonumerous other articles over the next couple weeks etc etc.. it's an abomination in detroit, lol.

Last edited by NoOne; 01-21-2019 at 12:12 PM.
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Old 01-21-2019, 09:49 PM   #6
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"Eephus" I think. Because "Eephus" means "nothing". I seem to remember that from the story I read about a pitcher in the 40's who got some toes shot off in a hunting accident and developed this new pitch. (5 minutes later : Yep. Stupid internet. Here I am all proud of some abstract knowledge from baseball lore and about 10 seconds of searching later I learn from the internet way more than I ever remembered. But I did remember that Ted Williams hit one a mile in an all-star game, so, dunno, yay me?)

Santana just won another one. 6.2 IP, 8K (!!!) 4H 0 ER. Season ERA now under 4. (Under 2 with me. I am about to trot out a one year extension offer. It seems his family loves Toronto...)

Have I mentioned I am playing this save just to learn the mechanics of the game? I sign guys that amuse me mostly.
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Old 01-21-2019, 10:31 PM   #7
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I have him on one of my Silver teams and he sucks.
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Old 01-21-2019, 10:58 PM   #8
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Tiger pitcher who threw occasional eephus pitch= Milt Wilcox, if I remember correctly.
Yes?
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Old 01-26-2019, 04:12 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BirdWatcher View Post
Tiger pitcher who threw occasional eephus pitch= Milt Wilcox, if I remember correctly.
Yes?

I remember when Pascual Perez starting fooling around with that pitch while he was with the Expos. He had gotten a bunch of guys out with it that year and was starting to throw it more often, until he ended up one night pitching against either the Padres or Giants at Olympic Stadium. Whichever team it was (probably the Padres), they were terrible that year.


I wish I could remember the guy's name, but he came up against Perez at a critical moment. Big, barrel-chested right-handed hitter with a mustache. Perez throws the eephus to him, and he hit it so hard I thought he was going to knock it through the roof.


After the game the guy was asked why he wasn't fooled by the pitch and he said "before the ((team)) signed me I had been playing slow-pitch softball in my spare time."
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