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Old 05-25-2019, 12:40 AM   #1
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I noticed something when upgrading players

First off I'm not complaining. I've come to accept this is the way it is, but I'm curious if I'm the only one who experiences this.


Whenever I replace/upgrade a roster spot, if the replacement is a silver or higher, they automatically do TERRIBLE for anywhere from 5-10 games before playing like a card of that caliber should. However, when I put an iron or bronze card in as a replacement/improvement, they perform pretty impressively for maybe a month before their performance tapers off to the appropriate numbers.


Is there some "comfort factor" inherent within the game? I remember someone in PT19 saying that when you don't mess with a roster its almost as if the players get "comfortable" with one another and play commensurate with their abilities.


My statement applies to literally ALL roster improvements. Pitchers, catchers, position players. Even when it's a very solid diamond card they play god awful for a week or more before getting in the "groove" so to speak.


Anyone else?
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Old 05-25-2019, 05:09 AM   #2
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This is just trolling now.
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Old 05-25-2019, 10:17 AM   #3
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This is just trolling now.
Thanks for admitting so.
I, meanwhile am asking a legitimate question.
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Old 05-25-2019, 10:28 AM   #4
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This isn't the type of information they put in the manual and this board comprises the only group of people whom I know play OOTP so this is assuredly the right forum to ask. If you think Im trolling feel free to show yourself out of my threads.
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Old 05-25-2019, 10:33 AM   #5
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Over the years, the Devs have made it perfectly clear there are no "hidden adjustments" including hot and cold streaks. The game relies entirely on chance once the talent matchups are determined.
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Old 05-25-2019, 10:41 AM   #6
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Quote:
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Over the years, the Devs have made it perfectly clear there are no "hidden adjustments" including hot and cold streaks. The game relies entirely on chance once the talent matchups are determined.
Hmmm. Thanks for your response. But hasn't PT only been out for a little over a year? Im not referring to the base game, mind you. Rather, cards within PT. If that's what you meant then forgive me for misunderstanding.
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Old 05-25-2019, 10:51 AM   #7
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I have added new players and had them struggle for months until I finally dumped them. I have added other new players that had miraculous stretches of play upon joining my team and helped me reach the postseason. I think it is RNG coincidence.

I have been told multiple times that there is no "comfort" factor and that morale and team chemistry are disabled in PT. I have been told this by developers and even Markus himself. Even though I have often felt the same as you based on my experiences, I believe this feeling of mine is observer bias and not real.
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Old 05-25-2019, 10:52 AM   #8
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Quote:
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I have added new players and had them struggle for months until I finally dumped them. I have added other new players that had miraculous stretches of play upon joining my team and helped me reach the postseason. I think it is RNG coincidence.

I have been told multiple times that there is no "comfort" factor and that morale and team chemistry are disabled in PT. I have been told this by developers and even Markus himself. Even though I have often felt the same as you based on my experiences, I believe this feeling of mine is observer bias and not real.
Thanks.
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Old 05-25-2019, 12:14 PM   #9
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What about rust?
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Old 05-25-2019, 12:33 PM   #10
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What about rust?
Only iron can rust through corrosion.
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Old 05-25-2019, 03:15 PM   #11
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I hear ya! I have a bit of a belief that players I add will do badly the first month they play, so a lot of times I will add a new player on Friday or Saturday so they can finish out the season and then get a "clean start" the next year. That's my superstition!

I'll fully admit this is not based on any real data, but it's often what I do.

That said, one of my teams added Cecil Cooper this year and after 23 games played he had an achievement for a 20 game hitting streak - so he obviously came in and did well. That same team added Billy William and he's been hitting the cover off the ball. So all players don't start out badly for sure!

I think a lot of this is related to human nature and how we remember things - you notice it when a player starts out doing badly and the times it happen stick in your mind. Other times when it doesn't occur you don't think about it so much, so when you think back in your mind all you recall is "players do badly when I first add them to the team" - even though it's not universally true.

This happens a lot when people think about coincidences - they tend to remember the things that confirm their biases and don't recall the contradictions.
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Old 05-25-2019, 03:39 PM   #12
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If you believe they will be bad or good strong enough, perhaps you are experiencing a self full filling prophecy.
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Old 05-25-2019, 04:08 PM   #13
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There is no magic formula for this,but before bidding see if that upgrade player is in your league and see how well he is doing for another team. Also, when upgrading and there are 10 of the same player being sold, there is probably a reason.


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Old 05-25-2019, 04:27 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by daves View Post
There is no magic formula for this,but before bidding see if that upgrade player is in your league and see how well he is doing for another team. Also, when upgrading and there are 10 of the same player being sold, there is probably a reason.


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Yeah. I get that. I'm referring to upgrading from, say, a 69 bronze starter who performed admirably, but I know they're going to start tapering off once promoted. I save up PP for 2 seasons, enough to buy a diamond Ralph Kiner. In this case I hadn't seen a Kiner on the AH in a few weeks and was lucky enough to have saved up enough PP.
I insert Kiner, a HoF diamond mind you, and he hit below mendoza line for 20 games with a -.1 WAR and 1 HR in 75ish AB, when the bronze he replaced was hitting .290-.310 with 1.5 WAR. (to reiterate, I replaced the guy hitting well because I knew he would start to degrade as I am promoted through the levels, in other words he was hitting well above his ratings suggested he should) The first thing I do upon checking my teams is sort by WAR, and anytime I replace someone I check about 24 real hours later to see this same occurrence. Not always with diamonds, per se, but quite obvious upgrades.


In PT19 it happened with Killebrew, Griffey Jr., Nolan Ryan (pitcher's stats, though), Mike Trout, and Chris Sale. But when I upgrade a very marginal amount like from a 65 bronze to 69 bronze or 70 silver the replacements seem to pick up immediately.



In the aforementioned scenario the diamond almost always plays to their ratings eventually. I just don't understand why a HoFer wouldn't immediately start raking. Especially in bronze and iron leagues. It's only a minor annoyance, but it's happened too often to merely be coincidence.
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Old 05-25-2019, 05:14 PM   #15
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One of my sons was complaining about his player additions a while back and it was easily explained....

- Too few opportunities. A single bad game (HR/few walks) will steer the stats towards one direction until they eventually normalize.


- HR hitter playing in .900 parks. Play a series or two back to back and you will quickly have fewer than expected from your power hitter.


- Contact hitters going against stellar infield defense (Cronin/ Boudreax/Aparicio/....).
Those darn elite guys can really keep the score low and hits to a minimum.


- Players going against top part of the rotation of your opponents. Donít expect to get HRs and BBs when going against Maddux-type players.


- Players with high strikeout rate going against High Stuff pitchers (Gooden/Nolan/Koufax/....). Even Ty Cobb has bad weeks.


- Looking at wrong stats. Trout will have a high WAR by end of year but his stats are not generated from his AVG but instead by walks and power hitting.
Also applies to players that generate their value from top defense.


- Placement of players in the lineup. When is the last time you have checked to make sure it still makes sense? Rotation changes can quickly have the wrong guys in lead-off or at the end of the line (fewer opportunities).


- Right handed batters going against RHPs. Often, they just donít get enough opportunities and their terrible platoon stats will really drag down the overall stats.
Make sure to look at the stats for ďvs Right- handed or vs Left-handedĒ to make sure players like Robert Clemente donít look worse than they really are.


- PT20 left handed batters hitting into the shift (extreme pull). This may need a bit more statistical data since it was not applying to all my players when I checked.


- Choice of player selection. Just because he is rated higher or a Diamond/Perfect card does not make him a good addition.
Adding a diamond player with low contact will almost always spell disaster.


But to go back to the original comment, I have seen bad additions and great additions for almost all levels.
If there is a tendency for one to do better than the other it is almost always explained using one of the explanations above.
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Old 05-25-2019, 07:18 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joehart View Post
One of my sons was complaining about his player additions a while back and it was easily explained....

- Too few opportunities. A single bad game (HR/few walks) will steer the stats towards one direction until they eventually normalize.


- HR hitter playing in .900 parks. Play a series or two back to back and you will quickly have fewer than expected from your power hitter.


- Contact hitters going against stellar infield defense (Cronin/ Boudreax/Aparicio/....).
Those darn elite guys can really keep the score low and hits to a minimum.


- Players going against top part of the rotation of your opponents. Don’t expect to get HRs and BBs when going against Maddux-type players.


- Players with high strikeout rate going against High Stuff pitchers (Gooden/Nolan/Koufax/....). Even Ty Cobb has bad weeks.


- Looking at wrong stats. Trout will have a high WAR by end of year but his stats are not generated from his AVG but instead by walks and power hitting.
Also applies to players that generate their value from top defense.


- Placement of players in the lineup. When is the last time you have checked to make sure it still makes sense? Rotation changes can quickly have the wrong guys in lead-off or at the end of the line (fewer opportunities).


- Right handed batters going against RHPs. Often, they just don’t get enough opportunities and their terrible platoon stats will really drag down the overall stats.
Make sure to look at the stats for “vs Right- handed or vs Left-handed” to make sure players like Robert Clemente don’t look worse than they really are.


- PT20 left handed batters hitting into the shift (extreme pull). This may need a bit more statistical data since it was not applying to all my players when I checked.


- Choice of player selection. Just because he is rated higher or a Diamond/Perfect card does not make him a good addition.
Adding a diamond player with low contact will almost always spell disaster.


But to go back to the original comment, I have seen bad additions and great additions for almost all levels.
If there is a tendency for one to do better than the other it is almost always explained using one of the explanations above.

Thanks for the well thought out post. Won't pretty much everything you mentioned only apply for upper-level teams, though? I'm talking about silver, bronze, and Iron here. I'm not playing Maddux's, or even people who realize they can change their park factors yet. I do check my splits, and update my order every 10-20 in-game days, though. WAR is only my first observation, because I don't want to only judge a player on their offense. That's what OPS+ is for. With WAR I can say "he isn't hitting, but he's obviously making a difference on the defensive side of the ball". If a diamond has a negative WAR in iron or bronze leagues, at least to me, it feels like something is wrong with that even if it is a "not so great" diamond. A bad diamond should absolutely destroy the iron level. It's literally the lowest level in the entire game.
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Old 05-25-2019, 09:08 PM   #17
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From a defensive standpoint, it applies to the lower levels even more.

While it is fun to send out combinations of Boudreau (126 at 2B), Cronin (120 at 3B), and Pesky/Lindor/Rizzuto/Jackson (109-115 at SS), you can build an even better defensive team at the lower levels (feel free to interchange them to maximize defense and collect golden gloves).

I ran into the following a few times when my contact team scored almost nothing game after game: Aparicio (128 at 2B), Marion (121 at 3B), and Belanger (115 at SS).

In fact, I have a team in Perfect league with that exact combo in my division.
I believe he is going for the 9 Golden Glove awards in a year challenge.

At the lower levels, I find myself looking for pitchers with little to no stuff but high movement and high control. A few of them can easily take you from the lower levels to Gold and Higher:
SP: Dizzy Dean, Brett Anderson, Paul Splittorff, ..
RP: Gene Garber, Bobby Jenks, Pedro Borbon, Steve Howe, …

I get to hear it all day from my kids how they keep the scores very low and beat the generic "let me put lots of power guys in my lineup".

I have to give credit to Markus and team. This part of the game seems to work even better than in PT19. Great core engine.

Unfortunately, a lot of these players are expensive because they are reliable.
I would give you a list of well performing guys at <1K too but I have not really played them long enough to make sure they can do it consistently with multiple teams.

Your Kiner example fits the example (ratings vs LHPs) :
Contact 61, Gap:53, Power: 87, Eye: 81, Avoid K: 34

Send out any pitcher that prevents HRs and Walks, and you have to pray that he gets lucky. I can totally see him go for 0-10 a few times during the year.

He is the type of player I would never touch in Perfect Team. The game engine just does not favor his abilities and he is more easily countered than other players.
Too many pitchers even at the lower levels can prevent HRs and Walks.
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Old 05-25-2019, 09:10 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joehart View Post
From a defensive standpoint, it applies to the lower levels even more.

While it is fun to send out combinations of Boudreau (126 at 2B), Cronin (120 at 3B), and Pesky/Lindor/Rizzuto/Jackson (109-115 at SS), you can build an even better defensive team at the lower levels (feel free to interchange them to maximize defensive and collect golden gloves).

I ran into the following a few times when my contact team scored almost nothing game after game: Aparicio (128 at 2B), Marion (121 at 3B), and Belanger (115 at SS).

In fact, I have a team in Perfect league with that exact combo in my division.
I believe he is going for the 9 Golden Glove awards in a year challenge.

At the lower levels, I find myself looking for pitchers with little to no stuff but high movement and high control. A few of them can easily take you from the lower levels to Gold and Higher:
SP: Dizzy Dean, Brett Anderson, Paul Splittorff, ..
RP: Gene Garber, Bobby Jenks, Pedro Borbon, Steve Howe, …

I get to hear it all day from my kids how they keep the scores very low and beat the generic "let me put lots of power guys in my lineup".

I have to give credit to Markus and team. This part of the game seems to work even better than in PT19. Great core engine.

Unfortunately, a lot of these players are expensive because they are reliable.
I would give you a list of well performing guys at <1K too but I have not really played them long enough to make sure they can do it consistently with multiple teams.

Your Kiner example fits the example (ratings vs LHPs
Contact 61, Gap:53, Power: 87, Eye: 81, Avoid K: 34

Send out any pitcher that prevents HRs and Walks, and you have to pray that he gets lucky. I can totally see him for 0-10 a few times during the year.

He is the type of player I would never touch in Perfect Team. The game engine just does not favor his abilities and he is more easily countered than other players.
Too many pitchers even at the lower levels can prevent HRs and Walks.
I love Garber. He's my closer down in Bronze, and he leads the conference with 41 saves. Also went 8-8 for me last season. Old School wins and saves guy who actually had a pretty good career.
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Old 05-25-2019, 10:33 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by Findest2001 View Post
First off I'm not complaining. I've come to accept this is the way it is, but I'm curious if I'm the only one who experiences this.


Whenever I replace/upgrade a roster spot, if the replacement is a silver or higher, they automatically do TERRIBLE for anywhere from 5-10 games before playing like a card of that caliber should. However, when I put an iron or bronze card in as a replacement/improvement, they perform pretty impressively for maybe a month before their performance tapers off to the appropriate numbers.


Is there some "comfort factor" inherent within the game? I remember someone in PT19 saying that when you don't mess with a roster its almost as if the players get "comfortable" with one another and play commensurate with their abilities.


My statement applies to literally ALL roster improvements. Pitchers, catchers, position players. Even when it's a very solid diamond card they play god awful for a week or more before getting in the "groove" so to speak.


Anyone else?

I kinda get where you're coming from. I've pulled cards I thought were going to be absolute MONSTERS and they've crapped out. On the flipside, I've pulled cards with lower overall ratings that perform fantastically well in the right position.


Is there any chance you're judging "upgrades" in terms of higher overall ratings? If so, I've had silver/gold RP's dominate diamond RP's simply because the former have possessed greater "tools" than the latter.


For instance, a RP with filthy stuff may have a lower overall rating because they have poor control. Another RP may appear to be a solid diamond, but they don't stand out with their stuff, movement, or control.


I think "well-balanced" players often have misleading overall ratings. I try to focus on guys with an outstanding tool or two and use them in specific situations. It's about finding the right guys for the strategy you're trying to execute out there .
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Old 05-25-2019, 11:47 PM   #20
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I love Garber. He's my closer down in Bronze, and he leads the conference with 41 saves. Also went 8-8 for me last season. Old School wins and saves guy who actually had a pretty good career.
Very reliable. Not a bad year on our end.

My son uses him on his team in Gold level.
Gold level: 1.02 ERA (408 ERA+) in 44 innings. 0 Home Runs.

Also great in Perfect level:
2.47 ERA (162 ERA+) in 58 innings

I say....one less position for your team to worry about.
77 Movement and 88 Control is a nightmare for power hitters.
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