Home | Webstore
Latest News: FHM 5 Available - OOTP 19 Available! - MLB Manager 2018 Available Now

OOTP Baseball 20 - AVAILABLE NOW!

  

Go Back   OOTP Developments Forums > Out of the Park Baseball 19 > Perfect Team

Perfect Team Discover the new amazing online league competition & card collecting mode of OOTP!

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old 03-16-2019, 10:35 PM   #1
HRBaker
Major Leagues
 
HRBaker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Ohio
Posts: 463
Blog Entries: 5
Thanks: 49
Thanked 226x in 135 posts
Variances - again...

Was reviewing my season results (only a few games to go).

Here's my regular lineup. The BA and WAR figures in (parenthesis) are my teams stats - the BA and WAR figures in [square parenthesis} is the best version of that player in my league. I had the only Johnny Bench in my league.

C Bench (.224, 2.4) [N/A]
1B Freeman (.240, -0.4) [.312, 3.1]
2B Ramirez (.257, 2.7) [.272, 4.5]
3B Renden (.291, 2.1) [.280, 4.1]
SS Lindor (.255, 4.0) [.273, 5.7]
LF Yelich (.281, 3.7) [.309, 3.9]
CF Trout (.238, 4.0) [.290, 6.1]
RF Judge (.229, 0.2) [.259, 2.3]

This is my defense for large range variability. If these ranges were smaller, outcomes would be more restricted. In other words, if Mike Trout ALWAYS batted within .005 points of .290 and 0.5 point of a 6.0 WAR - you could fairly easily project who was going to win the season from starting lineups.

I'm going to end up in 2nd Place with those figures to the left - MAYBE with a wild card position, but had my players performed at the right hand figures (simply a matter of who I faced and randomness) I would likely be heading to the world series.

And were I to do this comparison for my pitching staff, I'm sure I would see a similar range of performances.

I'm fine with the range of performance as it is. Anything more restrictive would make this a very boring game.
__________________
HR Baker

"I hope he (Babe Ruth) lives to hit one-hundred homers in a season. I wish him all the luck in the world. He has everybody else, including myself, hopelessly outclassed." - (Homerun Baker, November 1921)
HRBaker is offline   Reply With Quote
Thank you for this post:
2002halos (03-16-2019)
Old 03-16-2019, 11:08 PM   #2
2002halos
Minors (Triple A)
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Don Julio Club, Big A
Posts: 212
Thanks: 124
Thanked 118x in 62 posts
Very interesting.

I agree that randomness and the luck of schedule strength are the main factors involved.

But there are other factors, as many have mentioned... strategy settings, fatigue, etc.

My pitchers always underperform the same cards on other teams, but that isn't surprising... My park is a hitters' park and I sacrifice defense in favor of offense, so I expect that.

I strongly suspect the game engine includes some things most people aren't aware of.

For example, I think there's a high probability that situational modifiers are applied to mirror real life baseball. For example, everyone having a higher batting avg with men on base, or a lower walk rate with the bases loaded.

But this can have a cascading effect... if one of your players has a bad luck hitting slump, then having fewer base runners on base can mean the next guy hits worse too, because he isn't getting that modifier edge.

Another thing I've never seen anyone mention on these boards...
Expected variability of results will be higher with players who derive their value from hitting home runs. Simply because events that are more rare take longer to regress to the mean.
2002halos is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-16-2019, 11:23 PM   #3
Findest2001
Minors (Triple A)
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Boston
Posts: 204
Thanks: 70
Thanked 26x in 18 posts
I am seeing similar variance, albeit in Bronze. It always seems my hitters do considerably worse than equivalent hitters, albeit in the same league/division, so they're playing the same teams I am playing, and the same number of times). I'm not sure why, TBH. If there are 3 Bryce Harpers, mine is always last in the league leader categories, behind 2 other Bryce Harpers in the same league...
Findest2001 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2019, 08:57 AM   #4
Kushiel
All Star Reserve
 
Kushiel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Lake Dallas, Texas
Posts: 811
Thanks: 575
Thanked 514x in 316 posts
Tired matters. Too many managers just tell the AI to rest when tired. There are degrees of tired for players the same as pitchers. Then they have the same sub try to get around to resting them when several players are tired at once. I try to figure out how many games before a player starts showing tired pct., then I set his replacement for the games number to avoid that tired at all just like my starting pitchers. Try it.

Strategy sliders. Your choices matter on your team's performance.
__________________
There is a crack, a crack in everything
That's how the light gets in - Leonard Cohen
Kushiel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2019, 12:02 PM   #5
Jeff1787
Hall Of Famer
 
Jeff1787's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: The Doghouse
Posts: 2,902
Thanks: 351
Thanked 372x in 300 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kushiel View Post
Tired matters. Too many managers just tell the AI to rest when tired. There are degrees of tired for players the same as pitchers. Then they have the same sub try to get around to resting them when several players are tired at once. I try to figure out how many games before a player starts showing tired pct., then I set his replacement for the games number to avoid that tired at all just like my starting pitchers. Try it.

Strategy sliders. Your choices matter on your team's performance.
Makes sense, but how to figure when a player starts getting tired? You would need to check after each game for several games, no?
__________________
The key to hitting for high average is to relax, concentrate, and don't hit the fly ball to center field ~ Stan Musial

1946: MLB Revitalized
Jeff1787 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2019, 01:49 PM   #6
OMGPuppies
Minors (Double A)
 
Join Date: Apr 2018
Posts: 129
Thanks: 20
Thanked 48x in 36 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kushiel View Post
Tired matters. Too many managers just tell the AI to rest when tired. There are degrees of tired for players the same as pitchers. Then they have the same sub try to get around to resting them when several players are tired at once. I try to figure out how many games before a player starts showing tired pct., then I set his replacement for the games number to avoid that tired at all just like my starting pitchers. Try it.

Strategy sliders. Your choices matter on your team's performance.
Very interesting. What is a good number of games to set it too?
OMGPuppies is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2019, 02:26 PM   #7
bailey
All Star Reserve
 
bailey's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 873
Thanks: 59
Thanked 335x in 197 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff1787 View Post
Makes sense, but how to figure when a player starts getting tired? You would need to check after each game for several games, no?
That's exactly right! Plus, the game gives no warning, 1 day everyone is 100%, next game 5 players are tired.
__________________
RANZBA: Fast sim online league--a complete season in 2 weeks.
bailey is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2019, 02:30 PM   #8
HRBaker
Major Leagues
 
HRBaker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Ohio
Posts: 463
Blog Entries: 5
Thanks: 49
Thanked 226x in 135 posts
He did say, "I try to figure out how many games before a player starts showing tired pct., then I set his replacement for the games number to avoid that tired at all just like my starting pitchers."

It's a manual operation having to track fatigue to find the patterns.
__________________
HR Baker

"I hope he (Babe Ruth) lives to hit one-hundred homers in a season. I wish him all the luck in the world. He has everybody else, including myself, hopelessly outclassed." - (Homerun Baker, November 1921)
HRBaker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2019, 02:33 PM   #9
Jeff1787
Hall Of Famer
 
Jeff1787's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: The Doghouse
Posts: 2,902
Thanks: 351
Thanked 372x in 300 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by bailey View Post
That's exactly right! Plus, the game gives no warning, 1 day everyone is 100%, next game 5 players are tired.
That is what I mean. The game allows you to set up how often a utility player starts a game: from "if starter tired to every 20th game." How would you know what to set it at? Maybe I am over thinking this!
__________________
The key to hitting for high average is to relax, concentrate, and don't hit the fly ball to center field ~ Stan Musial

1946: MLB Revitalized
Jeff1787 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2019, 05:28 PM   #10
Kushiel
All Star Reserve
 
Kushiel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Lake Dallas, Texas
Posts: 811
Thanks: 575
Thanked 514x in 316 posts
The only players I set to rest only when tired are platoon players. The RH platoon hitters usually get a break because I face a LH pitcher often enough most times. The other players I watch how tired they are getting for awhile. Then I set that sub to avoid the tired cycle. Is this not why we have subs? Maybe I do not know what I am doing and just micromanaging but you will rarely if ever face a tired player on my teams.
__________________
There is a crack, a crack in everything
That's how the light gets in - Leonard Cohen
Kushiel is offline   Reply With Quote
2 thanks for this post:
Jeff1787 (03-17-2019), PhysicsTeacher (03-17-2019)
Old 03-17-2019, 06:35 PM   #11
Jeff1787
Hall Of Famer
 
Jeff1787's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: The Doghouse
Posts: 2,902
Thanks: 351
Thanked 372x in 300 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kushiel View Post
The only players I set to rest only when tired are platoon players. The RH platoon hitters usually get a break because I face a LH pitcher often enough most times. The other players I watch how tired they are getting for awhile. Then I set that sub to avoid the tired cycle. Is this not why we have subs? Maybe I do not know what I am doing and just micromanaging but you will rarely if ever face a tired player on my teams.
I think I understand now!! What is your baseline, slightly tired or tired?
__________________
The key to hitting for high average is to relax, concentrate, and don't hit the fly ball to center field ~ Stan Musial

1946: MLB Revitalized
Jeff1787 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-18-2019, 05:14 PM   #12
chazzycat
Major Leagues
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 429
Thanks: 139
Thanked 301x in 173 posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kushiel View Post
Maybe I do not know what I am doing and just micromanaging but you will rarely if ever face a tired player on my teams.
Sounds like you know exactly what you're doing. I'm sure it helps a tiny bit.



Unfortunately that level of micromanagement is just not an option for most of us, we have to "set it & forget it" and go to work.
chazzycat is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:54 AM.

 

Major League Baseball trademarks and copyrights are used with permission of MLB Advanced Media, L.P. Minor League Baseball trademarks and copyrights are used with the permission of Minor League Baseball. All rights reserved.

The Major League Baseball Players Association (www.MLBPLAYERS.com ) is the collective bargaining representative for all professional baseball players of the thirty Major League Baseball teams and serves as the exclusive group licensing agent for commercial and licensing activities involving active Major League baseball players. On behalf of its members, it operates the Players Choice licensing program and the Players Choice Awards, which benefit the needy through the Major League Baseball Players Trust, a charitable foundation established and run entirely by Major League baseball players. Follow: @MLB_Players; @MLBPAClubhouse; @MLBPlayersTrust

Out of the Park Baseball is a registered trademark of Out of the Park Developments GmbH & Co. KG

Google Play is a trademark of Google Inc.

Apple, iPhone, iPod touch and iPad are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.

COPYRIGHT © 2017 OUT OF THE PARK DEVELOPMENTS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

 

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.10
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright © 2018 Out of the Park Developments