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Old 07-09-2019, 04:42 PM   #1
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Ryu

In honor of the All-Star Game starter tonight, can anyone help me understand why Ryu's Live card is rated so low?



As I understand it, pitcher ratings primarily reflect FIP. Ryu is 4th in MLB FIP currently, after finishing 14th last year (80 IP min). He had great FIPs in 2013/14, then bad ones in 2016/17 as he was coming back from arm injuries.



Not complaining here, just trying to understand what's going on. I know a couple other Ryu cards have come out (POTM and All-Star), but seems like his live card should be closer to those better versions?
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Old 07-09-2019, 05:28 PM   #2
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I think his starting OVR is too low to begin with. So even with the boost, his live card rating doesn't represent his Cy Young-ish performance (so far) this year.
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Old 07-09-2019, 06:12 PM   #3
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I dropped Ryu in fantasy early this year when he got hurt. The guy hadn't been able to stay healthy. FML.
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Old 07-09-2019, 11:52 PM   #4
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I know it's based on ZIPS projections too, but I haven't looked at where ZIPS has Ryu. Also, look at some of the Hader discussions, because they talk about taking into account bb/9, k/9, hr/9 as influencing control, stuff and movement. I do think ZIPS plays a big part in it though based on what Kris Jardine talked about on stream once. Look at players substantially outperforming their projections and where they sit. I'm biased, but someone like Hunter Dozier for the Royals has an OPS+ of around 155, worth a little over 2 WAR and is a 65 (or so) live card, and has improved +3(or 4?). Same with some people like Tim Anderson, Whit Merrifield, Giolito, etc. that I think are underrated on their live cards.
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Old 07-10-2019, 08:56 AM   #5
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Until the game can figure out that an MVP season where someone hits .318 with 50 doubles, 45 home runs, and 157 RBI's is NOT A FREAKING OVERALL 69 SEASON...I don't have faith that the developers can ever get any ratings on players right.

But somehow Robin Ventura from 1992 is a high gold card. .282, 38 doubles, 16 home runs, 92 RBI's. Yeah that's totally 20 overall points better than an MVP season that was reaching record-breaking proportions at the All-Star break. Totally.

...Yes, I'm angry.
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Old 07-10-2019, 09:32 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbiller View Post
In honor of the All-Star Game starter tonight, can anyone help me understand why Ryu's Live card is rated so low?



As I understand it, pitcher ratings primarily reflect FIP. Ryu is 4th in MLB FIP currently, after finishing 14th last year (80 IP min). He had great FIPs in 2013/14, then bad ones in 2016/17 as he was coming back from arm injuries.



Not complaining here, just trying to understand what's going on. I know a couple other Ryu cards have come out (POTM and All-Star), but seems like his live card should be closer to those better versions?
Ratings for live cards are based on ZIPS projections and current 2019 stats. From my understanding they are weighted, meaning that at the beginning of the 2019 season they were 100% ZIPS and they will be 100% stats at the end of the 2019 season.

So my guess is that Ryu's projections are keeping his ratings down; however if he continues to pitch like you say he is (4th in FIP), his ratings will likely increase as the weight of the projections in the formula goes down.

Last edited by Sipimi; 07-10-2019 at 09:36 AM.
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Old 07-12-2019, 12:59 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fenixdown View Post
Until the game can figure out that an MVP season where someone hits .318 with 50 doubles, 45 home runs, and 157 RBI's is NOT A FREAKING OVERALL 69 SEASON...I don't have faith that the developers can ever get any ratings on players right.

But somehow Robin Ventura from 1992 is a high gold card. .282, 38 doubles, 16 home runs, 92 RBI's. Yeah that's totally 20 overall points better than an MVP season that was reaching record-breaking proportions at the All-Star break. Totally.

...Yes, I'm angry.
Okay, I'll bite. Who is the 69 overall card you are talking about?
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Old 07-12-2019, 01:20 PM   #8
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Maybe this can change next year but by the time the All-Star break hits the preseason Zips projections could hold a lot less weight. Or use the updated Zips because holding so much weight on preseason projections in July seem weird if they are true Live cards.

Preseason Projections by WAR: https://www.fangraphs.com/projection...rs=0&sort=24,d

Updated in season Projections by WAR: https://www.fangraphs.com/projection...rs=0&sort=24,d

Example: Ketel Marte and Yoan Moncada are silver cards but the updated Zips projections have them as top 12 WAR players this year with a bunch of Diamond and Perfect players.

Moncada has a .907 OPS right now. .898 in the updated Zips. That is probably where users question some Live Card ratings. Moncada would have to have a second half OPS of .480 to hit the preseason .727 projection on him. So what is the point of giving that much preseason projection weight on him? Preseason projection weight doesn't give all cards a true Live feeling.
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Old 07-12-2019, 01:21 PM   #9
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Okay, I'll bite. Who is the 69 overall card you are talking about?
My guess is Orlando Cepeda or Juan Gonzalez, although I doubt they could get those homer numbers any higher than Bronze tier.
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Old 07-12-2019, 01:38 PM   #10
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My guess is Orlando Cepeda or Juan Gonzalez, although I doubt they could get those homer numbers any higher than Bronze tier.
You are right. Juan Gonzalez.
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Old 07-12-2019, 01:55 PM   #11
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it's 2019 and on a statistically oriented baseball forum people are still using RBIs to describe the quality of a season
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Old 07-12-2019, 02:04 PM   #12
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it's 2019 and on a statistically oriented baseball forum people are still using RBIs to describe the quality of a season

Nah, it's still 1971 in my basement here...I wonder if Vida Blue is pitching today?
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Old 07-12-2019, 02:20 PM   #13
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You are right. Juan Gonzalez.
Ahh, he was talking about actual MLB input numbers and not PT output numbers. Funny that I got it right though, maybe shows that the ratings are accurate.

I'm a Texas and Juan Gone fan and was intitially disappointed by his cards. But after a second look I think they're probably fair. 1998 was the super-juiced year of McGwire and Sosa, so Gonzalez's 45 homers don't look as good in comparison.

Juan Gone wouldn't have won MVP with current day stats analysis. Struckout a lot more than he walked, and didn't provide any value in the field. But man was he good in Ken Griffey Jr. Presents on the SNES.
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Old 07-12-2019, 02:36 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CurlyKarkovice View Post
Maybe this can change next year but by the time the All-Star break hits the preseason Zips projections could hold a lot less weight. Or use the updated Zips because holding so much weight on preseason projections in July seem weird if they are true Live cards.

Preseason Projections by WAR: https://www.fangraphs.com/projection...rs=0&sort=24,d

Updated in season Projections by WAR: https://www.fangraphs.com/projection...rs=0&sort=24,d

Example: Ketel Marte and Yoan Moncada are silver cards but the updated Zips projections have them as top 12 WAR players this year with a bunch of Diamond and Perfect players.

Moncada has a .907 OPS right now. .898 in the updated Zips. That is probably where users question some Live Card ratings. Moncada would have to have a second half OPS of .480 to hit the preseason .727 projection on him. So what is the point of giving that much preseason projection weight on him? Preseason projection weight doesn't give all cards a true Live feeling.
I think that's a great idea, especially if it's easy for the devs to input that updated data into the system.
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Old 07-12-2019, 02:57 PM   #15
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it's 2019 and on a statistically oriented baseball forum people are still using RBIs to describe the quality of a season
So in 2019 they shouldn't keep track of the RBI stat *extreme Prince voice* Like-It's-1899!?

RBI is not what impresses me about that season. Comparing two 1990s cards ('95 Belle) who hit the same .317 average and were 50 HR and 50 Double guys, Gonzalez has lower power ratings at 78, 77 as well.

Obviously Eye and Avoid K's are the difference. See Albert Belle's 1995 card at 91 overall. He had more BBs and less Ks but the Power ratings higher at 82, 86 too. Both hit .317 but Belle with 3 more contact points. Both below average outfielders. I can't defend the 22 point difference in the Gonzalez card.

Ventura card season he was a Gold Glove boosting the fielding over 90 and he walked 22 more times than he struck out boosting those ratings. Easier to defend the Ventura card rating imo.
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Old 07-12-2019, 03:11 PM   #16
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So in 2019 they shouldn't keep track of the RBI stat *extreme Prince voice* Like-It's-1899!?

RBI is not what impresses me about that season. Comparing two 1990s cards ('95 Belle) who hit the same .317 average and were 50 HR and 50 Double guys, Gonzalez has lower power ratings at 78, 77 as well.

Obviously Eye and Avoid K's are the difference. See Albert Belle's 1995 card at 91 overall. He had more BBs and less Ks but the Power ratings higher at 82, 86 too. Both hit .317 but Belle with 3 more contact points. Both below average outfielders. I can't defend the 22 point difference in the Gonzalez card.

Ventura card season he was a Gold Glove boosting the fielding over 90 and he walked 22 more times than he struck out boosting those ratings. Easier to defend the Ventura card rating imo.
I don't think you can compare stats from different years, even if it's the same era. Like I said, Juan's power rating comes from 1998 which was the McGwire and Sosa juicey-juice year. But yeah, you're right that the BB/K ratio doesn't put Juan in a good light.

But it doesn't really matter what the rating on the card is. Juan's 69 rated card is one of the better Bronze cards in the game if you have a homer-friendly park. It's better than a lot of Silver cards despite him being bad at fielding.
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