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Old 11-12-2018, 08:55 PM   #1
Baseballman2K5
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What’s your draft strategy?

What’s your June Amateur Draft strategy?

I usually go through a lot of players profiles for my first 2 picks then generally let my “recommendations” pick.

I know the draft in MLB is like a coin flip whether or not your prospects will pan out...but just curious how to have a more successful draft.

I never draft a player with poor work ethics or a possible disruption...and often find myself drafting a different player than recommended in the first round.
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Old 11-12-2018, 11:02 PM   #2
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I draft a power hitter, then a speedster, then a catcher, then a starting pitcher then a closer then I turn it over to the AI.
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Old 11-13-2018, 04:45 AM   #3
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expectations depend on when you draft in first round. if outside of 1-5 or 1-10 it starts getting sketchy AF with accuracy and simply lack of depth of talent.

if i can get a bonafide power hitter, i don't typically pass those up. Same with a bonafide cy yong-quality ace.

even so, i'm focusing on SP for 3 or 4 picks and mixing in a bat, occasionally, if i see unusual talent for the bottom of first round or comp pick into 2nd round.

i won't forgo good SP talent for a player with 1/2 scale power, even if better at most other things... it'd have to be a bat with real potential. **generational leadoff type obp guy could turn my head too.

if i see a great RP, i'll mix them in like a batter too... but the focus is always SP. you can always trade SP -- especially young SP even if they have a stacked rotation.

most of what i draft is purely for trades anyway. you can't get top shelf talent very often if drafting 30th. pure luck or TCR, which is also luck.
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Old 11-13-2018, 08:46 AM   #4
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Bpa every single time. If you focus on "I need a...." You end up missing the obviously superior player.

I avoid risk so older underdeveloped players aren't my preference early in the draft. Later in the draft if they're available I'd gamble on them when the upside of other players is lower.
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Old 11-13-2018, 09:56 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ThePretender View Post
Bpa every single time. If you focus on "I need a...." You end up missing the obviously superior player.

I avoid risk so older underdeveloped players aren't my preference early in the draft. Later in the draft if they're available I'd gamble on them when the upside of other players is lower.
EDIT: I just realized you are talking about armature draft and I am talking about inaugural draft. So read this post with that in mind.

This is true. I should have said my draft "preference" was power, speed, catcher, sp, cl. However it often does work out that way.

Power is rare and precious so I always draft the best power hitter first even if he's just a 60 power.

The speedster is usually a reliable second pick as long as you aren't to picky about anything other than contact and stealing.

Catchers with a good arm and catcher ability and a good defense who can at least occasionally hit the ball are so rare in this game I sometimes will draft this one first if a good choice is there. However, 3rd gets you a decent catcher if you focus on defense not offense.

Pitching - obviously something may people won't agree with me on. But a solid rotation and 3 stars with maybe a two star in the mix is all I usually need if backed up by good hitting. Star pitchers are not worth the cost IMHO unless you have reserve era clause set on.

All that said, you are still right - you still have to use common sense if star players outside your plan show up.

Last edited by Hambil; 11-13-2018 at 10:01 AM.
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Old 11-13-2018, 12:26 PM   #6
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1. Best player available in the first few rounds.
2. Once we get into the scrubs, make sure they can run and field. That way, if talent change randomness kicks in, they'll still be able to run and field, plus now hit.
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Old 11-13-2018, 02:13 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Juggernt View Post
2. Once we get into the scrubs, make sure they can run and field. That way, if talent change randomness kicks in, they'll still be able to run and field, plus now hit.
To build on that, it's also good to look at personalities. A higher work ethic will make a player more likely to develop, and if TCR does make him a stud, I don't want a high greed/low loyalty combination.

In the lower rounds, I'll also fill holes position-wise. I'll take a look at my A and AA rosters and see if I could use better pitchers, or if they're thin at middle infield. Even if the scrubs never amount to anything, they're bodies.
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Old 11-13-2018, 02:37 PM   #8
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I don't really have any strategy, but I have noticed that I tend to draft hitters and and then use the extra hitters to trade for pitchers. When I have a large surplus budget, I'll go after more "impossible" signability guys than usual. But besides that, just really BPA.
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Old 11-13-2018, 03:56 PM   #9
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I look to find bats first, will spend the first few rounds there. Then, I will check out the pitchers, generally focusing on starters opposed to relievers.
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Old 11-13-2018, 05:22 PM   #10
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Best available athlete. If they're truly talented, I can always trade them. I always let good fielding break ties...unless it's between a batter & pitcher. You can never have too much pitching—it's like having too many cannoli. Ask LaSorda how those two ideas work out!
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Old 11-13-2018, 07:42 PM   #11
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I usually take BPA in rounds one and two, then I look for a batter with good pitching ratings or a pitcher with good bating ratings. Usually some real studs fall to round 3 every year. After that, I just try to look for relievers or guys with high contact/control.
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Old 11-13-2018, 08:05 PM   #12
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I take the best guy (I can sign) who is available in any given round. Drafting for need in baseball is a fool's errand. After the first few rounds with the obvious best guys drafted, I look for some attribute I like about a guy and hope after a few years in the minors some of the other parts of his game will improve and fill in. If nothing else my minor league managers will be happy that they have some decent players even if they aren't necessarily prospects.
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Old 11-14-2018, 02:04 AM   #13
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inaugural draft:

If you follow this, you will easily clear 90 wins, likely 100+ your first year without any trading (more on that at end).

assumes you are doing this with real players/2018 ... if not dial it back a bit on the prospect drafting.. simply won't be as much in those contexts.

the way this works out with a real world inaugural, you will be prospect rich and can trade for multiple upgrades if you want.. this year or next etc.

focus on your rotation and sluggers. serpentine or not will have an effect on what you see early on, and not a whole lot after that.

hopefully you ahve 2 amazing sp and 3 power bats that can also hit for average... OR 3 SP and 2 Bats. i prefer to lean on pitching over batting in an inaugural. as far as the power hitters, their position really doesn't matter... although i wouldn't suggest getting a 1b so early. why: more likely to see a decent 1b bat in a few rounds than other positons. you can find a decent 1b in 9-12, i bet.

by round ~9 or 10 you should complete your rotation... even by round 7. i wouldn't risk delaying much or you get stuck with really crappy 5th starters -- possibly 4th and 5th. don't worry about pen until late teen rounds, or preferably 20's/30's. your pen will be the best ever, don't worry. (easy to do, low cost)

the slugging you'll see rd. 6-9ish is mostly interchangeable. a guy who can hit ~.280 and 20-30 hr should be the goal for a bat. they quickly disappear around 7-9. so, use common sense. a power hitting 3b will go before a power hitting RF of same quality... look at how many exist and be smart as far as whom you pick first. a good mlb SP is long gone by the end of this range of rounds.

you can wait until mid 20's for a defensive SS... likely others too, but this is a position where you are least likely to get a power bat early on and don't 'reach' for one early on wasting a good early pick on a middling bat with defense or pass up an ace SP. Don't get a hotshot prospect(s) before you have a solid MLB core roster.

so by round 13-14 you have 8 or 9 bats and 5sp -- a good core. Now, you can look into prospects. the most elite and near MLB will not be available. those are sometimes gone by 3-5th round or so. you can always trade for them later. don't not be concerned about whether you have a use for them.. highest potential with common sense... bpa-prospect...

i would care little about age of prospect, mil level or ancillary things like that... care about stuff you typically care about in a draft. SP? 3pitches and one pitch lags 1/XX? not unless they are very young- 17/18.

you can get at least 4-5 in before worrying about RP.. or even ~7-8 more prospect picks before mixing in RP.

if you want 'the' best closer by name, pick one soon... 15-18? if you don't care for the name, i'd postpone a bit. in past you can get an amazing closer in early 20's even later, still. the key with drafting a pen is not just 1 pick... undertanding you need 5-7 RP picks between now and ~30's.

i'd get 3-4 RP by 24-25. they will all be elite. mix them in as you draft prospects. finish pen up in 30's or whatever.. there will still be quite a few good ones. if you went young so far, you can get a couple vets too.

So, recap after ~13-14 to 35ish... prospects.. mixing in CL/RP 5-7times and likely a SS in the mid-late 20's. if he can leadoff that's cool, but defense and 9-hole isn't going to hurt you, if you picked wisely earlier. a prototypical leadoff guy isn't needed... a little speed decent obp and 15-20hr goes a really long way. a lot farther than some obp speed machine with 2-5hr and 30 doubles, i don't care if he steals 100bases.

by ~35, you'll have a bullpen for the ages, 9 batters, 5 sp, and a veritable s%$#-ton of fairly high-end prospects. now, if you want pick of litter for versatile, speedy bench players... knock yourself out... or, maybe you want some 'better' depth for injuries? mix?

what i suggest... more prospects and mixing in the 3-4 bench bats needed. I'm assuming at least some of the prospects provide injury depth? if incredibly young, mix in some injury-depth players too. really heard to know what you'll have at this point to give a best recommendation.

by 50, maybe 60 the quality of bench players/depth starts to dip, and you'll have so many prospects it really doesnt matter if you can squeeze out a few more. you'll also have a full 25-man roster plus a suitable amount of depth for injuries at AAA. don't overdo injury depth. more than enough is a lost prospect for trades.

at this point either start drafting based on MiL need or let AI finish it up. i'd start picking all the 3-pitch+ SP with okay or better stamina i can find for the MiL -- relative to remaining need... so, taking stock at this time of the prospects you wrangled is a good idea. i'd place them at the level you expect them to play... the SP, anyway, because you don't need 15 SP at A-ball. AAA is likely filled for injury depth, so make sure each level has enough SP.. (>5 is smarter.)

once you run out of sp or filled up mil suitably, do the same with the position players... i will usually let ai takeover, but if you keep plugging away, go for more power over obp (still need some) and work backward from AAA down, because these players disappear first -- ie older/more developed, closer to MLB. if you do pick, you'll have a rocking MiL for sure.
---------------end of round suggestions

when drafting prospects, care not for level or experience beyond common sense. e.g. a college age prospect with 3 pitches, but one is lagging WAY behind.. that's an RP 90% of the time. a false SP prospect.

Also, go young whenever you can. a couple guys in their 30's isn't too big of a deal on each side of the ball. 3-5 on team? no biggie but starts to push it around then. hopefully you have a young, cheap team.

you will have so many prospects, you can't possibly have a use for them all...that's an awesome problem to have. over the course of the next year or however long it takes your goal is to hone down all that talent into the best core of players you can possibly find. you will have the assets to trade for them.

i wouldn't focus on MLB talent unless it's early 20's age. i would try to get some sort of range of ages as opposed to a clump all at one age. get enough fully developed high end guys to fill ouat 1-5 or 1-6 in lineup... 3-4 guys can be in minors or younger mlb guys you don't need to depend on, and anything they do is gravy. the older players should have their replacements already secured in minors too... just developing still.

this will set you up for a steady cycle/rotation of players in perpetuity from year one. no ramp up time. you'll likely have some leftover prosepcts and hopefulyl they are 'younger' so that you can use them along with an aging (~30) player to get replacements. you want any position that you don't already have a replacement for... likely a few options, so find the best at the moment.

i glossed over future RP need. hopfully you have a young pen and it's not important for 5-10 years after draft. you only need a 1-3 RP in minors of note by that time. i often find them drafting at bottom of 1st round too. trading for RP is easier han other postions. you'll find a way with them easily in varying ways over time. make sure to have some replacements here and there... RP i sign beyond 10 years too... comp pick when/if they leave and i don't hamstring myslef by age.. but they are safe upto 34-35ish. (even beyond but risk escalates increasingly so). Don't neglect your pen. make sure it gets fed enough.

i say ~90-100+ wins up top.. that's if you do nothing after the draft. you put on your trader hat and mix old and young enough and you can get to 120+ wins that first year, if not 130+. after that the only time you should dip to <120 is due to catastrophic # of injuries or for some reason you replaced 4 bats or 4sp that year instead of staggering it with some better planning

goal is to trade before 10 years and veto power. the replacement is already 'here', so more choice in target. if all my 'old' guys have quality replacements brewing and on time, i go as young as possible, but still BPA-like.

rarely will you have to target a specific position... C/SS/CF excluded. these elite players are rarer to exist in league at any particular time.. may even have gaps between seeing elite bats at SS and definitely gaps at C. decades long gaps at C. i will jump on such generational players, even if i have a young guy currently at that position.

all goes well, you rarely have to worry about salary going too high with so many under club control... 7 years is long enough for any player that makes it to majors >24ish. i wouldn't even try to extend them unless it's cheaper than arbitration figures to be. younger players, extend any time they offer a deal that's cheaper than arb years plus the next few years beyond.

contract going beyond use is good. contracts covering a bunch of old ages is bad for trading value. again, less than 10 ML years is goal for players. exceptions can be made, of course. you'll ikely have money for a few exceptions or more. trading them is essential to feeding the pig that is your mlb club. a constant cavalcade of high quality players awaits and you only have them during their best years!

(while paying the cheapest contracts they'll ever have in MLB)

one note: if you start winning 130games and such.. strategies change. when you have 5 sp eating up 1100-1150 innings you don't need 7 RP (injuries excluded) for the remaining 250-300ip.. you need 5 or 6. an extra bench player can be useful.. or even just 24/25 man roster for flexibility.

you have the best players, so plan accordingly.. make sure your coach doesn't like to sub position players whatsoever. things like that. don't get attached... replace 1-2 players on each side of the ball each year if you can... sometimes it gets clumpy. do yourself a favor and trade acouple of that age clump earlier than normal, when the time comes.

Last edited by NoOne; 11-14-2018 at 02:31 AM.
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Old 11-16-2018, 02:52 PM   #14
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June Amateur Draft:

You always want to draft the best player available regardless of position. Trade surplus to fill holes in major league roster.

Usually the best players are 2-way players (offense & defense), the most athletic or those that play up the middle (C, SS, CF, 2B).

If you have an infield player who doesn't have soft hands (infield error 50 or below), move them to the outfield. Errors will cost you games.

No matter the pitcher, they MUST have good movement or they will get hammered!.

Choose a draft philosophy and STICK TO IT! (The Cardinal Way)! By doing so, you can withstand injuries as well as free agent defections. Make sure your trades & free agent signings ALIGN with that philosophy. It will take a few years but you will see the results in multiple division titles & hopefully championships. Hope this helps.

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Old 11-18-2018, 10:26 AM   #15
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I should also add pick up a utility player or two. I set a custom view for all fielding positions and look for someone that can play multiple positions well. They can be a one or two star even, they are just there to cover for you when a player is injured. And definitely get a backup catcher with good defense. Again stars are not as important.
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Old 11-20-2018, 04:41 PM   #16
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filters for different roles is a must.

e.g. pitching -- you should have at least 2 filters just for SP. one filter for younger sp that can still gain Velocity, and one for ages greater than that age. if you have any filters for stuff, it should be a bit lower for the 'kids' filter.

with this type of filter the goal is to weed out the obvious bad choices. (SS? can't have a weak arm or low if range, right? just don't set bar too high). do not set too high of a threshold that it excludes potentially good choices. this will mostly improve your MiL system... since almost all players after the first few picks are a total crapshoot to amount ot anything worthwhile.

simpler filters are better than a ton of factors... find the fewest things that can distinguish that player/position sought. again, this will reduce hiding good choices accidentally. the work and effort will still be relatively the same as what you do without the filter... the difference is you don't have to sift through as many names to find something you like... it puts that name clsoer to the top.. .sift through 10-20 instead of 50 profiles etc.

whatever you do to weed out choices as you click through profiles, that's what you want for your filters. with a bit more leeway built in.

Last edited by NoOne; 11-20-2018 at 04:45 PM.
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Old 11-23-2018, 10:56 AM   #17
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i usually put a premium on pitching, i am a believer that you should develop your own pitching instead of spending big on older pitchers in FA so if its between a pitcher or a hitter in the draft i usually go for the pitcher
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Old 11-23-2018, 05:53 PM   #18
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they are expensive and prone to injuries. more reason to grow your own to keep costs down.

signing an SP with 2500-3000ip is a scary proposition, even if they show no signs of degredation as of that time. any borderline skill set is scary at FA-age.

e.g. just good enough control? few ticks down and he can't overcome increase in walks, etc...

e.g. velo ticks down and those meh-rated pitches, sans gb%/velo calculation to stuff, become apparent very quickly.

young pitching is where it is at. i rarely have a 30+ SP that is not a KB'er. the extremely exceptional i will roll the dice upto ~33 or so with contracts or willingness to retain without losing sleep. even if signed beyond that, if well rated @32-33 you can still trade them and get some value greater than a comp pick. wait much longer and you cannot trade even with good ratings.

in my experience you can find a solid #1-2 starter at bottom of first round far more often than a great batter slipping that far.

if you draft 1-2-3-ish, i wouldn't hesitate taking that 81+contact / 81+ power with at least competent defensive ability for their position over an SP. you simply won't see that batter at any other time except with a miracle of 29 teams misscouting amzing talent -- even if slightly underrated he's going well before "30th."

injury proneness, work ethic, intelligence all play their part too in the process of choosing, of course. but, all other things remaining the same, i go with a batter 1-2-3ish, and i am an SP-dominant drafter. round 1-2-3 i almost always pick SP, but i don't draft at top of rounds.

in 130 some years in previous release and fresh memories -- i've seen 2-3 high quality power bats at ~30th. while i've consistently found good SP at ~30th, though. quite a few in a HoF with higher standards than RL.

if i include high BA/OBP guys with the power guys, the chances of a 'good' bat does increase significantly. if you don't have quality leadoff prospects in the pipeline, that can be a reason to spend a late 1st rounder on such a player too.

whatever you prefer, it's best to apply a bit of common sense too. if rigidly only choosing one thing, you aren't doing the best you can do for sure.

Last edited by NoOne; 11-23-2018 at 06:00 PM.
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Old 11-23-2018, 09:42 PM   #19
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yup, i just had my former first rounder SP who i gave a well over slot bonus to, who was a top 100 prospect, and would be competing for a rotation spot next season retire to go play football. gotta love it.
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