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Old 01-10-2019, 06:38 AM   #1
jaggedendz
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Why do good rated players play bad?

I picked up Yu Darvish. Both my scout and league have him at similar ratings. 3 star pitcher, above average splits with 7 pitches. But hes at over 7.00ERA 2.00 WHIP. He gives up over 3 HRper9. Hes flat out terrible. Were mid day though the season and hes pitched around 60 innings.
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Old 01-10-2019, 08:33 AM   #2
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Dear jaggedendz,

We know EXACTLY how you feel! We really wish we knew why.

Love

Joe Maddon and Jed Hoyer
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Old 01-10-2019, 09:49 AM   #3
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all players have bad seasons, just like real life. it happens. i once had an MVP winner who was so bad the next season that he had to be sent to AAA. i was kinda mad about that
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Old 01-10-2019, 11:22 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by wallewalls View Post
all players have bad seasons, just like real life. it happens. i once had an MVP winner who was so bad the next season that he had to be sent to AAA. i was kinda mad about that
Right.
And pitchers are especially unpredictable with great fluctuations in performance over their careers. OOTP does a good job of mirroring real-life in this respect.

(Plus, 60 innings is far too small a sample size to draw any serious conclusions from. Likely he improves enough in the second half of the season to bring his numbers down to something a bit closer to expectations. But still could be pretty bad. Because, well, that's baseball.)
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Old 01-11-2019, 03:34 PM   #5
Mr. Marlin
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I've been wondering this for a little while. Do stats follow ratings or do ratings follow stats? For the past few versions I've been inclined to think it's the latter. A player's ratings are based on what they have done, not necessarily indicative of that they are going to do. If so they are more realistic than I had given them credit for.
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Old 01-11-2019, 08:59 PM   #6
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At the end of the day this is just one giant well put together $40 dice rolling simulator.
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Old 01-13-2019, 12:39 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Marlin View Post
I've been wondering this for a little while. Do stats follow ratings or do ratings follow stats? For the past few versions I've been inclined to think it's the latter. A player's ratings are based on what they have done, not necessarily indicative of that they are going to do. If so they are more realistic than I had given them credit for.
It seems like I've had this more than a couple of times. A pitcher has been terrible recently and then later in the season the scout downgrades his velo or stuff or something.

I view it as sometimes it's a bad luck stretch and other times somethings has gotten worse and we pick it up a few months later.
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Old 01-13-2019, 01:20 AM   #8
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It seems like I've had this more than a couple of times. A pitcher has been terrible recently and then later in the season the scout downgrades his velo or stuff or something.

I view it as sometimes it's a bad luck stretch and other times somethings has gotten worse and we pick it up a few months later.
Yeah my guess is ratings drop then you pick up on it, but based on a player's personality bad performance could conceivably cause them to regress
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Old 01-14-2019, 02:19 AM   #9
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Is scouting on? How high a level of accuracy? How good is your scout? Are player personalities on? Storylines?

I was winning 60% of my games at deadline. Trades for a top flight SP and CL. Was under .500 after. Both had bad relationships with my manager. So many variables...
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Old 01-14-2019, 03:43 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Marlin View Post
I've been wondering this for a little while. Do stats follow ratings or do ratings follow stats? For the past few versions I've been inclined to think it's the latter. A player's ratings are based on what they have done, not necessarily indicative of that they are going to do. If so they are more realistic than I had given them credit for.
stats are caused by ratings... any change in ratings takes time to show up in stats as a 'new' sample under those conditions grow.

you can see where this is a real issue -- during any time period when change is more likely, i.e. development and aging.

as long as you keep your totals and modifiers relatively similar each year, you should become familiar with what a set of ratings is capable of. you can know relatively how low or high they go compared to what htey 'should' average.

not everyone averages what they should, but that doesn't change the facts. multiple factors involved that can make you feel like stats push ratings, but they really don't directly.

my point: take any poorly rated player, give him "star" ratings, and he will perform like a star.

how does personality and coach influence this? is there an unseen ratings that makes them <100% of ratings or >100% of ratings (could be factored easily by something)?

look up sample sizes needed for a meaningful average. e.g. 990 AB for BA. that's relative to 'some' confidence level choosen.. no idea what they did here, but probably a 95%-confidence level. anytime a rating changes drastically, that's how long you need before you see the production from those new ratings level off to a reasonable average for BA... other stats have different needs for a suitable sample... not all ratings affect BA... you can see how i simplified here..

now, playing well does have a small effect on development, per the manual. it's very small effect, since players can sit on bench and still develope fully with no games played... playing time is the bigger key here than MiL results.

i've seen a seemings sure-fire HoF guy fall fairly flat, relative to his ratings. stil had a clearly above-average career. had above average work ethic/intelligence etc. just underperformed every year relative to ratings, but wasn't "terrible." his ratings did take a dive sooner than expected (on another team, lol). maybe a really string of seasons makes players give up at some point? or, it was just coincidence he was an early decrapitator and out of the league by 33ish.

this guy should have been a perrenial 30-40hr, 120-150rbi 120-140runs and 50sb per year... just wicked talent and was a .270-.280BA and barely.500slugging guy during prime years before any degredation of ratings. (i have fewer hr than default leagues, so the "should'ves" may look pedestriant, but it isn't in my leagues). anyway i think poor performance can influence retirement as well as loss of ratings. one of other factors and very small indeed, or i'd see this more often. hence, more likely coincidence, and if anything a tiny factor.

typically if anyone is a surprise relative to ratings it's due to poor scouting or a TCR change -- random and unpredictible for the most part. a "higher" value is more likely to go down toward middle and a "lower value" is more liekly to move toward the middle too. TCR... these statements were made by an ootp-agent in forums within last ~5 years. not my deduction in anyway... too random to see with eye.

Last edited by NoOne; 01-14-2019 at 03:51 AM.
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