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Old 06-15-2017, 06:14 PM   #1
dewelar
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Question Ratings and Resulting Stats Problem

With neutralized stats borked for the foreseeable future, I have taken to adjusting imported players manually. In the process, I realized that I don't know what the "neutral, modern Major League environment" in the "Resulting Stats" section actually means. With Baseball Reference's neutralization function also borked, this becomes critical information, and I've searched the boards for definitive information -- indeed, any relevant information -- to no avail.

So, the question is, what stat levels should I be aiming to approximate when I adjust a player's ratings? 2016 MLB? 1993 MLB? The stats for the season when my league is based (1977)? Some amalgam of some or all of these? Some guidance, please!
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Old 06-19-2017, 07:04 PM   #2
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Unhappy

Bump - it's been a few days, so should I presume that nobody knows the details of this? At this point, I'm setting all my historical player ratings to generate stats that reflect 2016 MLB, but will be quite put out if the power hitters all start hitting 75 HRs and striking out 250 times ...
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Old 06-19-2017, 08:16 PM   #3
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Hmmm..I'm not sure about the "forseeable future." Does this post mean anything to you? Would your efforts help him move along its unborking? http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...83&postcount=1
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Old 06-19-2017, 08:28 PM   #4
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*nods* Actually, I did PM Spritze about that. The problem was that apparently I'm the only one who offered to help, so the process in limbo.
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Old 06-19-2017, 09:33 PM   #5
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I noticed when creating a custom league and updating the teams to historical team (after creating the league) you have the option to use real or netrualized stats to create ratings, but you also have another option to normalize ratings to a neutral era. So...if you chose base ratings on Real Stats then check normalize them to a neutral ERA, I would think the game engine does the normalizing not relying on the database to be normalized. Thought??

Neil
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Old 06-20-2017, 12:37 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dewelar View Post
With neutralized stats borked for the foreseeable future, I have taken to adjusting imported players manually. In the process, I realized that I don't know what the "neutral, modern Major League environment" in the "Resulting Stats" section actually means. With Baseball Reference's neutralization function also borked, this becomes critical information, and I've searched the boards for definitive information -- indeed, any relevant information -- to no avail.

So, the question is, what stat levels should I be aiming to approximate when I adjust a player's ratings? 2016 MLB? 1993 MLB? The stats for the season when my league is based (1977)? Some amalgam of some or all of these? Some guidance, please!
here's the great part of how it's set upt the way it is...

1/2 scale will typically be ~average results in that league... if things are not default, simply list all players and sort by each rating and find the middle -- i'm pretty sure they use an even distribution model or standard distribution etc.. so median should be roughly average..eyeballing it will be good enough (you don't have to average 1000players per rating).

the statistical environment is defined by the values in your "stats and AI" settings - ltm / lt's and then also PCM (player creation mods, if not 1.000 - this is what can shift 'average' rating up/down). ratings determine likely distribution within that statistical environment..

if you know what is "average" in those eras (load up them up in a throw-away league to see their settings etc), you can translate what the ratings will mean. if you are playing that league, you probably have a good idea already.

now, as far as those "resulting stats" in the editor (described as modern mlb environment -- whether or not it is callibrated with the deafault MLB league totals is another question), once you work with a few players you'll recognize a typical translation per league (or multiple leagues that share those LTM/LT and PCM settings -- basically everything in Stats and AI settings, lol)...

if they are average in the editor and you have a league with a home run total ~2000, they won't get anywhere near that suggested result in the editor (hr league total closer to ~5000-5400 and it should match up better - along with similar other settings)

as long as you control the statistical environment, they won't go HR crazy, for example. distribution of the league totals will be the main concern as far as how you dole out ratings. (again speakign of probability, which over infinite time would give expected results, not necessarily what happens in any 1 year)

Last edited by NoOne; 06-20-2017 at 12:56 AM.
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Old 06-20-2017, 01:01 AM   #7
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lol simplified:

pick a distribution of ratings that you want, then control the stats with League totals and modifiers

need to consider each before picking either.

the game generates fictional players in a roughly normal distribution curve for each rating - roughly centered around ~1/2 scale... some not quite, but close. familiarity is sometimes a good thing... definitely one less thing to account for when translating to another league etc..

rhetorical:
do you want a different distribution of results to match a particular era? you may not want a normal distribution curve.. e.g. babe ruth... in order for babe ruth to hit 60hr and most other players to hit very few is a reduced HR League Total (+modifier callibrated) AND a severely skewed distribution toward the low end for power amongst players.

in this case the info from the editor cannot easily be used in an environment like that... it;s based on roughly a normal distribution of ratings, i believe. you'd have to account for that skew in distribution relative to the modern mlb in the editor... which isn't goig to be a simple -10% for a particular stat at all ratings....

Last edited by NoOne; 06-20-2017 at 01:11 AM.
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Old 06-21-2017, 02:01 PM   #8
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Thanks for the detailed explanation -- it's definitely going to be helpful, but it might help if I explained the workings of the league I'm creating. Essentially, it's a single-season league, with each player's best single season being imported one at a time and being adjusted afterwards. Thus, the league will include 1923 Babe Ruth alongside 2002 Barry Bonds, 1913 Walter Johnson, 1881 Cap Anson, 1965 Sandy Koufax, etc. and great single seasons like 1976 Mark Fidrych and 1945 Snuffy Stirnweiss. I'm not expecting anything super-accurate (for obvious reasons), just trying to eyeball something reasonable for each player as they come in. I'm not sure how I would go about applying the adjustments you suggest for my particular circumstance.
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Old 06-21-2017, 03:34 PM   #9
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well, no matter how you stratify their ratings as you import, they will only get their share of the league totals as callibrated by the modifiers... this will have to be an arbitrary choice by you.

i'm not saying it should be 10,000 homeruns or anything like that... but, there's no standard baseline setting to put it on and let the chips fall where it may... it's not really set up to do it from that direction. the best you can do is choose somethign arbitrarily or pick a baseline environment like real-world mlb 2017 with the player set included used as an 'average' talent distribution (which it is not, but... closer than guessing 100%) both are arbitrary depending on how you look at it

pick a slash you want and hit auto-calc when done and that will control the statistical environment.... or...

if you want it based on a somewhat known statistical environment, for example 2017 real mlb, you could simply load up that league, hit auto-calc on Stats and AI screen, and screenshot it all. even the left side of that page.

mimic the entire page and you will have an environment matching the real mlb league with those players** (must consider player set for the auto-calced LTM)... However!!!, using these settings is *kinda* like letting the chips fall where they may... all relative to 2017 mlb players' talent distribution and what ootp says the league should average by those LTM/LTs.

that's almost like setting the physics to the real world then letting your imports and edits do what they may naturally. if you do this, you are bound for a couple surprises, i'm sure. (stats)

the ratings will mean roughly the same things, but distribution and relative offense vs pitching talent will be way different... so results will be way different but roughly calculated using the same probabilities in a real world 2017 MLB ootp league. since almost every player is going to be a HoF'er and their best year... it's impossible to guess if you will see an increase or decrease in anything with confidence. But, i think that's what you are looking for?

Last edited by NoOne; 06-21-2017 at 03:39 PM.
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Old 06-21-2017, 04:32 PM   #10
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Okay, I think I'm getting a bit lost, so let me try something. I will lay out what I've been doing, and you can correct whatever issues you see.

So, for each player I import, I first check their stats against the averages from their own league. I then check those comparisons against the stats from 2016 MLB. For instance, if a player struck out 10% more often than league average, I will adjust his strikeout rating until the Resulting Stats K number is 110% of 2016 MLB league average (i.e., per Baseball Reference, players K'd an average of 129.5 times per 550 AB, so I would adjust the ratings until the player's K total hit ~142, hence my question about whether I should use 2016 or 1977 or something else). I then do the same thing for all of the player's other ratings (using a bit of fudging for power ratings for deadball-era and earlier players and other such anomalies).

Now, it seems like the stuff you're talking about is stuff I should be applying after I've imported all the players I'll be using, and that's where it will be quite helpful. The question is, should I even be doing the adjustments I mention above, and if so should I be doing it differently than I am? I started making these adjustments because of the wonky look of the "Resulting Stats" when I imported the players, but does that even matter? I'll blow it up and start over if necessary, so don't hesitate to be brutal. I'm prepared to be called an idiot .

Last edited by dewelar; 06-21-2017 at 04:35 PM. Reason: Clarify
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