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Old 02-09-2019, 02:41 AM   #1
Imbogo
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OOTP appears to make errors calculating pitcher's overall stuff

When using the editor it's possible to lower any pitcher's overall stuff value by increasing the stuff of individual pitches.

For example, the overall value of stuff increases as fastball's individual rating value rating increases (like any pitch) but will suffer a penalty and decrease if the fastball value is equal or greater to the individual value of a secondary pitch. It will then decrease based on how many secondary pitches are <= to the current fastball value. (I can't tell what the true function is, but that's part of it). The penalties for having a fastball rating >= to a secondary pitch rating are cumulative and can result in a pitcher who would be better off having zero fastball than with a fastball that has a higher rating than all of his other pitches.

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I've never tried attaching images before so hopefully there's now an example of what I am talking about.

By playing around in the editor I have been able to come up with some rules that seem to be consistently true. In order to calculate stuff correctly and avoid any arbitrary reductions the true pitch ratings must be in a certain order:

Fastball* must have the lowest value. Slider must be second lowest. Forkball, screwball, and knuckle curve seem to have the same rules and do not interact with each other. Pitches from this "forkball group" must be higher than the slider and lower than any changeups. Curveball must be higher than slider and lower than changeups, but it does not interact with the "forkball" group. Changeup and circle change must be the highest pitches but they do not interact with one another.

*Cutter, sinker, and splitter appear to have similar rules to the fastball but they trigger penalties when their value = secondary pitch value +1 rather than when = secondary pitch value. The penalty for rating overlaps is also less severe for these pitches than the standard fastball.

This is something I have been able to replicate in every old league where commissioner mode was enabled as well as two newly created test leagues.

Edit: I should have been clearer that this will happen to some extent with any pitcher at any velocity.

Last edited by Imbogo; 02-09-2019 at 08:53 PM.
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Old 02-09-2019, 04:36 PM   #2
Alex Murray
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Love the research here Imbogo, reminds me of when I did movement effectiveness research. I wonder if its something to do with Hammels being a control/contact pitcher and because his FB is so slow (not that 91/93 is exceptionally slow) the game considers his #1 pitch to lower his stuff rating overall. All that to say it might be that the coding plugs the best pitch as the one thrown more often but if that fastball isn't actually his best pitch due to speed, movement, and GB/FB rate it might lower his stuff rating because he overthrows his FB instead of his better suited off-speed pitches.

Just a thought from my first glance at this. I'll try to dig deeper into this in my spare time but I'll also pass this along to a dev to see if they know about this little tidbit of info.

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Old 02-09-2019, 08:50 PM   #3
Imbogo
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Thanks for the reply! I thought something similar with the game potentially incorrectly prioritizing a weaker pitch.

Hammels isn't special, the overlap penalty will happen with any pitcher at any velocity. But the theory of badly prioritizing pitches seems to make sense when you look at what velocity does. Velocity changes the severity of the penalty, probably because at higher velocities true pitch rating is more directly tied to actual stuff. With extremely hard throwers the penalty to a fastball becomes almost imperceptible since a much greater proportion of the total stuff rating is encapsulated in the strength of that single fastball pitch. At 100 mph the penalties for changeups and all other pitchers not being in the optimal order is no longer visible. The penalty to fastball will at most be a single point of stuff reduction when fastball is increased to match secondary pitches.

so yeah it's a small issue in that generally these penalties don't significantly affect pitchers. However, as you saw in my example there are certain conditions that set up nonsensical situations which can trigger a large drop in stuff from a small increase in the rating of a single pitch. Lower velocity pitchers with 4+ pitches are the most susceptible to big drops in stuff. I made a pitcher with 6 pitches whose pitches were rated 210, 211, 212, 213, 214, 215 and then by raising all pitches to 215 his stuff dropped from 254 to 201. With 100% accurate scouting that was a drop of 124 stuff to 94 stuff in game ratings!

Last edited by Imbogo; 02-09-2019 at 08:51 PM.
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Old 02-10-2019, 06:34 PM   #4
Matt Arnold
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Thanks for the detailed description. You're right, it does appear that there are some edge cases that obviously are not intended to lower the stuff rating. We'll fix this up for OOTP20
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Old 02-10-2019, 11:42 PM   #5
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Sounds good, thanks for checking it out!
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