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Old 03-11-2018, 06:59 PM   #1
Bluenoser
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Arrieta to Phillies

3 years at $25M per with an opt out after the 2nd yr. https://www.mlb.com/news/jake-arriet...al/c-268457880

I don't know much about the Phillies at all, other than the past few seasons haven't been kind to them.

Any Phantatics on the forums?

Are they a team on the rise? Does Arrieta put them in contention?
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Old 03-11-2018, 07:12 PM   #2
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They are a team on the rise, but the general consensus would be that they are still a year or two away. Arrieta probably doesn't change that consensus, but I think the move puts them about even with where the Mets are likely to be (not the pie in the sky Mets with a healthy rotation firing on all cylinders. Those guys can compete with the Nationals, but they're imaginary until proven otherwise). The Phillies are still likely to be one or two dozen games worse than the Nationals. Second wild card? Who knows?
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Old 03-11-2018, 08:06 PM   #3
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If the signing is done to use him to help develop the young staff this year and position for playoff runs in year 2 and 3 then it's a good deal. However; if they are trying to win this year I am not sure it makes sense because they are not really primed to compete for a legitimate spot and they should be focusing on getting ready to be good in the 2019-2021 timeframe.

The Nationals will be faced with some tough decisions next off-season, especially if Harper flies the coup, and the Braves are really on the cusp of breaking out or burning into the ground. The Mets are the Mets so I wouldn't be to concerned with them and the Marlins - well - they're the Marlins.

The Phillies have so much money to spend though it might not matter and maybe having Arrieta on the staff might help convince a free agent to sign next year. But if the Phillies think they are getting Harper or Machado because they have some young guys and Arrieta I think they are sorely mistaken. Harper has an amazing pitching staff right now so an aging Arrieta isn't going to impress him but Manny is playing behind possibly the worst pitching in the league so that might be a toss up.

I'm a die hard Cardinals fan that is stuck living in the DC area and having to deal with the NL East on tv and radio. Plus my father-in-law is a Philly guy as he grew up in Philly so we have quite spirited debates and there is still some ill will from the Philly-St. Louis playoff games about a decade ago.
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Old 03-12-2018, 01:39 AM   #4
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The Mets are the Mets so I wouldn't be to concerned with them
You watch your tongue, young man!

...

Okay, it's true.
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Old 03-12-2018, 03:39 PM   #5
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Total overpay for a regressing league average starter
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Old 03-12-2018, 03:45 PM   #6
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Of course they overpaid. But he has value, it's a short contract, it's not my money, and they're better with him than without him.
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Old 03-12-2018, 04:16 PM   #7
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Total overpay for a regressing league average starter
How is he a league average SP? I agree with the regressing part. He is still a great #2 on the Cubs, Brewers and Yankees. A potential #1 on STL and most other teams. He should still pitch 200 + innings, win 15-17 games and have an ERA in the low to mid 3's. i'm personally hoping he wins the CYA just so i can pick on Cubs fans.
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Old 03-12-2018, 05:14 PM   #8
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How is he a league average SP? I agree with the regressing part. He is still a great #2 on the Cubs, Brewers and Yankees. A potential #1 on STL and most other teams. He should still pitch 200 + innings, win 15-17 games and have an ERA in the low to mid 3's. i'm personally hoping he wins the CYA just so i can pick on Cubs fans.
Speaking as baseball GM video game fan and general baseball fan, he has a number of red flags. His velocity was way down last year and has been trending down the last few years. He’s much more hittable now as a result. H/9 jumped almost 2 hits per nine last year. He’s still a decent pitcher but he’s regressing fast and barring a major resurgence I would predict that trend continues. I wouldn’t pencil him any higher than a number 3 on a contender or a 2 on a mediocre team.

Speaking as a fan of the cubs, I don’t care if he wins a cy young this year. I’m glad that didn’t pay him his crazy demands to stay with the team. He is a risky investment at best. I wish him well in Philadelphia when he’s not playing the cubs.

On and FYI Arrieta has only pitched over 200 inning once in his career. I’m fact, he’s only thrown over 168.1 innings twice in his career let alone 200. Not that I put much stock in the win stat, but he has only win 15 or more games twice in his career. I think your expectations may be a bit too high.
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Old 03-12-2018, 05:38 PM   #9
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He's not going to win 15-17 games because he'll be pitching for the Phillies, and he doesn't go deep into games. W-L records with a top team like the Cubs were while he was there aren't a good comparison.
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Old 03-12-2018, 05:53 PM   #10
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I guess one ring was enough for Jake.

But yeah, it only makes sense if he's there to mentor Nola and their other young pitchers. Otherwise, odd deal for a team that's probably not going to contend until at least 2020. Even then, it seems like they could have found a less expensive guy to do that.
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Old 03-12-2018, 06:17 PM   #11
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I guess one ring was enough for Jake.
Don't be so sure. Lately, one of the good ways to pick surprise playoff teams is to find the young team everyone says is a year away. The Royals, Astros, Cubs, Twins, and Yankees were all supposed to be a year away when they first made the playoffs.I don't really believe in the Phillies, but they fit the pattern.
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Old 03-12-2018, 07:58 PM   #12
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How is he a league average SP? I agree with the regressing part. He is still a great #2 on the Cubs, Brewers and Yankees. A potential #1 on STL and most other teams. He should still pitch 200 + innings, win 15-17 games and have an ERA in the low to mid 3's. i'm personally hoping he wins the CYA just so i can pick on Cubs fans.
4.16 FIP last year, 96 FIP-

He would have been the Cards 4th best FIP starter last year (Wacha, Martinez, and Weaver ahead) and Wainwright just behind.

I wouldn't expect him to be better than a 4.00 ERA moving forward. STEAMER projects him for a 4.10 ERA.

I see him as a 8.50 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, 1.15 HR/9 starter. That's a league average pitcher, a slightly better than league average starter, and certainly not an ace.

He wouldn't be a number 2 on the Cubs, he'd be their number 5. He'd be the Brewers ace unless Nelson is healthy though. He'd be either the 2 or the 3 on the Yankees (behind Severino, right next to Gray).


If you are hoping for 200 innings and a 15-17 wins and a mid 3 ERA, I fear you'll likely be disappointed. Every thing in his pitching profile screams massive regressions, and his age isn't helping the case. Declining velocity, movement, and command.

Some fans keep mentioning an improved second half last year, but that's not entirely true. He just managed to strand runners at an unreasonable rate. He still had a 4.11 second half FIP, just like his first half. He won't keep stranding guys at 83% of the time....nobody does.
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Old 03-13-2018, 09:31 AM   #13
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As a pitcher on the decline, he’s there to mentor the young staff and hopefully pitch well enough to help entice manny or Bryce to sign there next year. As a Phillies fan I hope he pitches great but realistically I think add 2-3 wins tops.

Best case scenario is a .500 win season for the Phillies


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Old 03-13-2018, 06:06 PM   #14
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This deal reminds me a lot of the Jayson Werth signing in 2011 w/ the Nats. You're a young team, laughed at, with no veteran presence...granted, for fewer years. You bring in a player in his 30s with some value left, great clubhouse value, and you'll show the league (aka "other players) you're interested in contending and willing to open up the wallet a little bit to get there. IMO, the Phillies earned a lot of goodwill with the players and MLBPA by signing Arrieta with everything going on this offseason.

Will it work like it did for the Nats? Only time will tell...
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Old 03-14-2018, 11:16 AM   #15
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This deal reminds me a lot of the Jayson Werth signing in 2011 w/ the Nats. You're a young team, laughed at, with no veteran presence...granted, for fewer years. You bring in a player in his 30s with some value left, great clubhouse value, and you'll show the league (aka "other players) you're interested in contending and willing to open up the wallet a little bit to get there. IMO, the Phillies earned a lot of goodwill with the players and MLBPA by signing Arrieta with everything going on this offseason.

Will it work like it did for the Nats? Only time will tell...
And it needs/assumes that the young pups are going to improve and get better.


The Nats had young Harper, Strasburg, Rendon, Zimmermann, Ramos, Desmond, and Zimmerman under control, alogn with several bp arms (Storen, Rodriguez, Clippard, etc).

They had a nice young core that adding pieces to go with it was a great strategy.

But, Werth was like one off-season too early, and I criticized it, but it turned out to be a pretty smooth signing for them, because in 2012 (a year later) they won 98 games and added Gio Gonzalez and Adam LaRoche to the process.

Last edited by Jeffy25; 03-14-2018 at 11:18 AM. Reason: Sorry, they drafted Rendon that year
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Old 03-14-2018, 01:50 PM   #16
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And it needs/assumes that the young pups are going to improve and get better.


...alogn with several bp arms (Storen, Rodriguez, Clippard, etc).
At first, I read "bp" as "batting practice."

I thought, "Dude, that's a little harsh."
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Old 03-14-2018, 08:00 PM   #17
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And it needs/assumes that the young pups are going to improve and get better.

The Nats had young Harper, Strasburg, Rendon, Zimmermann, Ramos, Desmond, and Zimmerman under control, alogn with several bp arms (Storen, Rodriguez, Clippard, etc).

They had a nice young core that adding pieces to go with it was a great strategy.

But, Werth was like one off-season too early, and I criticized it, but it turned out to be a pretty smooth signing for them, because in 2012 (a year later) they won 98 games and added Gio Gonzalez and Adam LaRoche to the process.
The Phillies don't have the same amount of depth. However, with the Machado trade rumors swirling, the pendulum could swing the other direction quickly. Signing Arrietta tells all the free agents next year, "Hey! Look at us! We're ready to spend money and be relevant again!"
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Old 03-15-2018, 01:41 AM   #18
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The Phillies don't have the same amount of depth. However, with the Machado trade rumors swirling, the pendulum could swing the other direction quickly. Signing Arrietta tells all the free agents next year, "Hey! Look at us! We're ready to spend money and be relevant again!"
These things do tend to start with a big signing. The Cubs did the same with the big six year 155 million deal with John Lester.

I don’t know if the three deal is that signal or not. I think the fact that he signed in March and will damper that a bit.

All that being said, I think the “signal” will likely have more to do with how the Phillies do this year. After signing Werth the Nats improved from 69-93 to 81-80 (12 game improvement).. The cubs improved from 73-89 to 97-65 (24 game improvement.). I think the significant improvement for both teams is what made the teams more attractive to feee agents. If the Phillies do well, their improvement will be the signal, not Arrieta.
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Old 03-15-2018, 09:13 PM   #19
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If the Phillies do well, their improvement will be the signal, not Arrieta.
Well, they're in the best division to make it happen as the NL East's #2 spot is completely up-for-grabs.
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Old 03-16-2018, 02:35 AM   #20
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Seeing how the Mets populate MLB.com's injury report already and how the Braves and Marlins are messes in their own right, I don't see what can stop the Phillies from taking second place except their own foolishness during the next six months.
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