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View Poll Results: If Mike Trout stopped playing today, should he be in the HoF?
Yes 13 68.42%
No 6 31.58%
Voters: 19. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 05-01-2019, 06:48 PM   #1
AirmenSmith
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Trout and War

I'll start out by saying that i'm not a fan of war but it is the way things are now.

Espn has an article that trout is better the "7 more Hall of Famers." While I can handle war being used to measure an individuals season, I just can't wrap my head around it being use as criteria to rate against players in the Hall.

To me what war is saying, per the espn article, us that Trout has accomplished more in his 8 years as a pro then Hall of Famers that have played for 15+ years. I feel as though that is why I can't stand war because it is overshadowing careers so easily and eventually the Hall may make it the main criteria for entry instead of the current criteria, which isn't perfect I agree.

I guess I look at it this way, would I take 8 years of Trout or Biggio's whole career? For me it would be Biggio's whole career.

So if trout stopped playing today, per war he should get in the Hall but per the HoF criteria he shouldn't.

Anyway, what is everyone's take on this? Try to keep civil, I know war is touchy but no bashing on others views.
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Old 05-01-2019, 07:24 PM   #2
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Bill James has talked about "peak" value and career value both being valid measurments for Hall of Fame status. I think Trout could be there already based on peak value. Biggio deserves his place based on career value. I don't see why both can't be valid.
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Old 05-01-2019, 08:33 PM   #3
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I think the reasoning for why he stopped playing would be important. Like if he played for ten more years at exactly 0 WAR, then he might not be a Hall-of-Famer. But if he had some catastrophic injury and had to stop playing, then I think he's definitely in.

He's won two MVPs and finished second four (!) other times. He's led the league in runs, RBIs, stolen bases, walks, OBP, and slugging in his career (multiple times for most of those). He's the all-time career leader in slugging and in OPS. All of this is more than a lot of Hall-of-Famers can say.
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Old 05-01-2019, 09:19 PM   #4
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If you believe in the argument that the quality of players has increased over the decades then Trout has had some of the best batting seasons ever and is also a very good to excellent outfielder.
There is a good argument to be made that he is the best hitter of all time based on his peak value.

And we are talking about peak and he is 27. He hit his 'peak' at age 20 and has never looked back,
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Old 05-01-2019, 10:41 PM   #5
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WAR cannot be the standard when there isn't a standard for WAR.

Bill James on WAR

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The most critical assumption was the first one, that each statistic acquires its importance by its connection to wins and losses. When we were moving out of the primordial soup, that was the first and most critical step...............I am not saying that WAR is a bad statistic or a useless statistic, but it is not a perfect statistic, and in this particular case it is just dead wrong. It is dead wrong because the creators of that statistic have severed the connection between performance statistics and wins, thus undermining their analysis..................the connection between wins and other statistical accomplishments is the basis of statistical analysis. When you sever the connection between wins and statistics, you are no longer doing statistical analysis. What you are doing then the same thing that Maury Allen did in when he said that Johnny Bench was not an all-time great because he never hit .300. You are picking and choosing which stats you will pay attention to and which you will ignore, based not on their connection to wins and losses, but based on your own prejudices. When you do that, it is no longer valid statistical analysis...................What creates value for a baseball player is winning games. You cannot discard that principle, and have a valid analysis.
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Old 05-02-2019, 08:32 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Orcin View Post
Bill James has talked about "peak" value and career value both being valid measurments for Hall of Fame status. I think Trout could be there already based on peak value. Biggio deserves his place based on career value. I don't see why both can't be valid.
Can you explain what peak value means or includes? I know for the hall you should have the 10 years of high level, is that the same as peak value?
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Old 05-02-2019, 08:52 AM   #7
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If you hint Sandy Koufax should be in (and I do) then you probably should agree that Trout should be in.
In my OOTP League I have a 10 year requirement but maybe I should rethink that.
On the other side of the coin, there are probably several HOF that had 5 or 6 good years but then had many average years and got in because of the longevity.
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Old 05-02-2019, 10:22 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by AirmenSmith View Post
Can you explain what peak value means or includes? I know for the hall you should have the 10 years of high level, is that the same as peak value?
One barometer for Hall of Fame inclusion is Jay Jaffe's JAWS metric. This is just the average of a player's career WAR and his "peak" WAR. The peak WAR is defined as the best 7-year stretch, by WAR, of that player's career.

The Hall does have a requirement about having played in at least 10 seasons, but that can be waived under extraordinary circumstances.
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Old 05-02-2019, 10:54 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Reed View Post
If you hint Sandy Koufax should be in (and I do) then you probably should agree that Trout should be in.
In my OOTP League I have a 10 year requirement but maybe I should rethink that.
On the other side of the coin, there are probably several HOF that had 5 or 6 good years but then had many average years and got in because of the longevity.
I'm a super small hall guy so my requirements are very extreme.

-Waiting period is immediate
-Years on ballot is 5
-5 names a ballot
-Min service years at 15
-90% required for induction
-Less then 20% and you are dropped
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Old 05-02-2019, 11:05 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AirmenSmith View Post
Can you explain what peak value means or includes? I know for the hall you should have the 10 years of high level, is that the same as peak value?
I am referring to the 7-year period as explained in the post above.

Trout has played seven full seasons, not counting his first year (40 games) and this year. His lowest OPS+ is 168 so he never had a bad season and has been an all-star every year. His career adjusted OPS+ is #5 all-time, tied with Hornsby and trailing only Ruth, Williams, Bonds, and Gehrig. He has two MVP awards, finished second four times, and fourth once - all with a mediocre franchise that has a lackluster roster other than him. He has never won a Gold Glove but he plays center field in a DH league so his defense is certainly not shabby.

That's a pretty strong resume and you would need a compelling reason to keep him out that has nothing to do with numbers.
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Old 05-02-2019, 04:13 PM   #11
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Mike Trout with one arm and one leg would still be a better player than half of MLB. That is my criterium for Hall induction.
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Old 05-03-2019, 11:45 AM   #12
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I guess an issue I have is that aside from one year, I guess no other seasons pop out at me. My thinking is he will be easy first ballot HoF but I think he will be around top 5 - 10 all time. He will have a great collection of stats but really not have season where he just destroyed everyone.

But I confess i'm old school in stats so eye popping seasons probably won't matter come his enshrinement. I also don't care about the post season for players outside of closers.
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Old 05-03-2019, 12:45 PM   #13
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I think the problem here is that you are just too hard to please.
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Old 05-03-2019, 01:18 PM   #14
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Mike Trout's career batting line: .307/.418/.574, 175 OPS+
Christian Yelich's 2018 MVP season: .326/.402/.598, 163 OPS+

Mike Trout AVERAGE is just as good (if not a bit better) than the 2018 NL MVP. He's amazing
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Old 05-03-2019, 03:53 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AirmenSmith View Post
I guess an issue I have is that aside from one year, I guess no other seasons pop out at me. My thinking is he will be easy first ballot HoF but I think he will be around top 5 - 10 all time. He will have a great collection of stats but really not have season where he just destroyed everyone.

But I confess i'm old school in stats so eye popping seasons probably won't matter come his enshrinement. I also don't care about the post season for players outside of closers.

I'm confused. Which season do you think is his 1 eye-popping season? I'm genuinely unable to figure out which one you are referring to.
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Old 05-03-2019, 04:09 PM   #16
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I'm confused. Which season do you think is his 1 eye-popping season? I'm genuinely unable to figure out which one you are referring to.
Sorry 2014
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Old 05-03-2019, 04:10 PM   #17
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I think the problem here is that you are just too hard to please.
When it comes to baseball very very true.
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Old 05-03-2019, 04:27 PM   #18
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I was gonna post something along the lines of Trouts only weakness is that he is on a team on the west coast that doesn't make the playoffs often

then I thought of Griffey Jr....
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Old 05-03-2019, 04:36 PM   #19
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The pictures here kind of show what i'm thinking about. When comparing these two players, the second is Trout, I look at it and say player one is by far the better player. (Defense aside for right now). That's what I mean by seasons that stand out.
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Old 05-03-2019, 05:13 PM   #20
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There is little to no difference between those players.

And would people please refrain from posting stats tables without the column heads? I can guess what most of the stats are. Maybe. Way to have an educated discussion.
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