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Old 05-09-2018, 06:00 PM   #41
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Baseball is so easy to analyze. You have one of two jobs.
To create runs and to prevent runs. If you are a run creator about 15% of your job is to prevent runs.

As a pitcher getting strikeouts is a great way to prevent runs. But giving up walks is also a great way to give away runs.
Thus when taken as a whole Ryan was above average over a long time at preventing runs.

That is why I love OPS+, ERA+ and WAR
Using those and few other tools you can get a pretty good idea of what sort of season a play had.
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Old 05-09-2018, 11:10 PM   #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Elendil View Post
In the first two cases, not for reasons related to performance. Had Bonds never juiced and Rose never gambled, and they'd compiled the same stats, they'd be in. Aaron was always a no-doubt Hall of Famer when he was the HR king. The claim under discussion here is that the all-time K king doesn't deserve to be in on the basis of his stats, not anything extramural. I don't find that plausible, even if his peak was only a few years. The durability needed to compile is a skill!
As far as Bonds goes, the PED thing is a convenient excuse for the writers who always hated him. There are unquestionably steroid users already in the HOF, just from before it was so widespread. They've been used to enhance athletic performance since at least the 1950's.

Larry Scott admitted that all competitive bodybuilders were using anabolic steroids by 1960. Every US weightlifter was prescribed Dianabol in preparation for the 1960 Olympics in Rome. A top secret 39-page Soviet doping report entitled "Anabolic Steroids and Sport Capacity" published by the State Institute of Physical Culture in Moscow in July 1972 was released publicly in 2003 by former chair of the department of sport biochemistry at the State University of Physical Education and Sport in Kyiv Michael Kalinski. It mentioned systematic steroid use as far back as the 1952 games in Helskinki.

It's impossibly naive to think MLB players of the day were so saintly that they would never seek such a competitive advantage even with their livelihood on the line, that really doesn't pass the smell test. It's easy to make circumstantial cases:

If a pitcher today had an ERA just under 4.00 and never struck out 200 batters in a year through his first seven seasons then suddenly became unhittable, posting ERAs of 2.54, 1.88, 1.74, 2.04, and 1.73 and leading the league in Ks four times (reaching 300+ three times), then blew out his arm and never pitched again, everyone would be saying he was juicing. When it actually happened in the 1960's, few people suspected anything of the sort.

Hank Aaron had a sudden power surge late in his career, right about the same time the first American athletes were getting busted at the Olympics for performance enhancers. His career best HR and SLG% numbers came at age 37, older than Bonds was when he had his. His second best SLG% was two years later, at age 39. Have you seen pictures of Aaron from 71-74 and compared them to him in the early-mid 60's? He bulked up pretty considerably.

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Old 05-10-2018, 12:29 PM   #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pilight View Post
With Koufax in the HOF, there's no justification for leaving Santana out

I'm on the fence about Koufax as well. Is six dominant seasons, with four extremely dominant seasons in a twelve year career enough? The other six seasons were extremely meh. I just don't know.

Your comp is bang on though. One could make a really convincing argument for both inclusion and exclusion for both of these pitchers. That's the definition of a borderline candidate. The question is: are they borderline in, or borderline out?

I know we're not discussing him here, but Halladay had an eleven year run where you could argue he was the best pitcher in baseball. Within that run, Santana had a five year run where he was probably the best pitcher in baseball. The guys with short runs of extreme dominance are probably the toughest ones to judge for Hall worthiness.
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Old 05-10-2018, 01:04 PM   #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pilight View Post
If a pitcher today had an ERA just under 4.00 and never struck out 200 batters in a year through his first seven seasons then suddenly became unhittable, posting ERAs of 2.54, 1.88, 1.74, 2.04, and 1.73 and leading the league in Ks four times (reaching 300+ three times), then blew out his arm and never pitched again, everyone would be saying he was juicing. When it actually happened in the 1960's, few people suspected anything of the sort.
Sandy Koufax was a raw prospect with little actual experience. He was a basketball player. He was in the Majors working on his control rather than in the minors. Things finally clicked for him once he finally learned control, something other pitchers do in the minors.

Quote:
Hank Aaron had a sudden power surge late in his career, right about the same time the first American athletes were getting busted at the Olympics for performance enhancers. His career best HR and SLG% numbers came at age 37, older than Bonds was when he had his. His second best SLG% was two years later, at age 39. Have you seen pictures of Aaron from 71-74 and compared them to him in the early-mid 60's? He bulked up pretty considerably.
And also right about the same time the Braves moved to the "launching pad" in Atlanta. Aaron changed his swing. He was a gap to gap hitter but once he saw how Fulton County Stadium played he changed to be a "launch angle" pull hitter.

There isn't a shred of evidence that Koufax or Aaron used any PEDs.
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Old 05-10-2018, 02:04 PM   #45
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Originally Posted by Curve Ball Dave View Post
There isn't a shred of evidence that Koufax or Aaron used any PEDs.
As I said, it's just circumstantial. Of course there's no direct evidence. Baseball wasn't testing then. How could there be?
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Old 05-10-2018, 02:06 PM   #46
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As I said, it's just circumstantial. Of course there's no direct evidence. Baseball wasn't testing then. How could there be?
I'm saying there's other far more viable and realistic reasons other than PEDs that explain the change in performance in these two players.
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Old 05-10-2018, 02:33 PM   #47
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I'm saying there's other far more viable and realistic reasons other than PEDs that explain the change in performance in these two players.

Like Sandy Koufax pitching in a notorious pitcher's park, and Aaron (as you said) hitting in a notorious launching pad of a stadium?
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Old 05-10-2018, 02:44 PM   #48
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Like Sandy Koufax pitching in a notorious pitcher's park, and Aaron (as you said) hitting in a notorious launching pad of a stadium?
For instance, yes.
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Old 05-10-2018, 03:44 PM   #49
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Like Sandy Koufax pitching in a notorious pitcher's park, and Aaron (as you said) hitting in a notorious launching pad of a stadium?
They both had teammates who also switched parks. None of them had changes anywhere near as dramatic.

The Braves as a team hit fewer home runs in 1971 (Aaron's career best season) than they had the year before and only one other player on the team had 15 or more homers. That's not exactly what most people would expect from a "launching pad".

Koufax dropped his ERA a full run in his first Dodger Stadium season. The Dodgers as a team improved by less than half a run the same year. The other Dodger starters didn't show nearly Koufax's improvement. Podres and Williams had their ERA's rise in '62.
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Old 05-10-2018, 04:00 PM   #50
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They both had teammates who also switched parks. None of them had changes anywhere near as dramatic.

The Braves as a team hit fewer home runs in 1971 (Aaron's career best season) than they had the year before and only one other player on the team had 15 or more homers. That's not exactly what most people would expect from a "launching pad".

Koufax dropped his ERA a full run in his first Dodger Stadium season. The Dodgers as a team improved by less than half a run the same year. The other Dodger starters didn't show nearly Koufax's improvement. Podres and Williams had their ERA's rise in '62.
Their team mates on their respective teams weren't as good to begin with. I already explained Koufax. What he should have been learning in the minors he had to do in the Majors because of the rules of the time regarding players and signing bonuses. Aaron was already one of the best right handed hitters in history before they moved to Atlanta.

It wasn't PEDs, it was talent.
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Old 05-15-2018, 10:15 PM   #51
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I have Bill James' book on the Hall of Fame. He makes a clear distinction between rate and peak value.

The truth of it is that there is a place in the HoF for both, just as there is a place in the HoF for defensive brilliance.

Harold Baines had more RBI than Brett, Schmidt, Hornsby, Killebrew, McCovey, DiMaggio, Bagwell, or some guy named Mantle.

If you compress Baines' production into 16 years, he averages 102 RBI, and is in the HoF.

...Yet I would never vote for Baines for the HoF, even with his 2866 hits.

His TB total of 4604 is very high..I believe he was 25th all time when he retired.

Why should his playing for a very long time diminish his HoF credentials? Is Pujols' case weaker, due to the last six years of non-greatness?
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Old 05-18-2018, 01:16 PM   #52
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Their team mates on their respective teams weren't as good to begin with. I already explained Koufax. What he should have been learning in the minors he had to do in the Majors because of the rules of the time regarding players and signing bonuses. Aaron was already one of the best right handed hitters in history before they moved to Atlanta.

It wasn't PEDs, it was talent.
If the park aided their production, it would have aided their teammates as well. It didn't.

Of course Aaron was a great hitter. So was Bonds. I'm just saying that a modern player suddenly having career highs in their mid-late 30s is suspicious in a way it wasn't before PED use was widely reported.
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Old 05-18-2018, 02:37 PM   #53
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Hank Aaron's best AB/HR years came on a team that was (allegedly) full of steroid users. In 1973, when Aaron hit 40 homeruns in just 120 games (at age 39!), Davey Johnson hit 43. His 5 best seasons other than that were 18, 15, 10, 10, and 9. Same year Evans sandwiched a 41 in the middle of a run of 12, 19, 25, 22, and 11.
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Old 05-18-2018, 05:44 PM   #54
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As far as Bonds goes, the PED thing is a convenient excuse for the writers who always hated him. There are unquestionably steroid users already in the HOF, just from before it was so widespread. They've been used to enhance athletic performance since at least the 1950's.

Larry Scott admitted that all competitive bodybuilders were using anabolic steroids by 1960. Every US weightlifter was prescribed Dianabol in preparation for the 1960 Olympics in Rome. A top secret 39-page Soviet doping report entitled "Anabolic Steroids and Sport Capacity" published by the State Institute of Physical Culture in Moscow in July 1972 was released publicly in 2003 by former chair of the department of sport biochemistry at the State University of Physical Education and Sport in Kyiv Michael Kalinski. It mentioned systematic steroid use as far back as the 1952 games in Helskinki.

It's impossibly naive to think MLB players of the day were so saintly that they would never seek such a competitive advantage even with their livelihood on the line, that really doesn't pass the smell test. It's easy to make circumstantial cases:

If a pitcher today had an ERA just under 4.00 and never struck out 200 batters in a year through his first seven seasons then suddenly became unhittable, posting ERAs of 2.54, 1.88, 1.74, 2.04, and 1.73 and leading the league in Ks four times (reaching 300+ three times), then blew out his arm and never pitched again, everyone would be saying he was juicing. When it actually happened in the 1960's, few people suspected anything of the sort.

Hank Aaron had a sudden power surge late in his career, right about the same time the first American athletes were getting busted at the Olympics for performance enhancers. His career best HR and SLG% numbers came at age 37, older than Bonds was when he had his. His second best SLG% was two years later, at age 39. Have you seen pictures of Aaron from 71-74 and compared them to him in the early-mid 60's? He bulked up pretty considerably.

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There isn't a shred of evidence that Koufax or Aaron used any PEDs.
Yes there is. Read the quoted post above yours. You're just dismissing it. Now how MUCH evidence is certainly debateable. But to say "there isn't a shred of evidence" is simply not accurate or truthful.
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Old 05-19-2018, 09:44 AM   #55
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Yes there is. Read the quoted post above yours. You're just dismissing it. Now how MUCH evidence is certainly debateable. But to say "there isn't a shred of evidence" is simply not accurate or truthful.

You don't have any evidence of PED use, you have speculation and suspicion. You're also saying that because one event followed another one must have been caused by the other which is a post hoc fallacy. Re Aaron, color me shocked that a man in his late 30s doesn't have the same physique he had in his mid 20s. PED use wouldn't have helped Koufax throw strikes. He was always a hard thrower, he just didn't know where it was going.


Dazzy Vance didn't become a HOF pitcher until he was on the wrong side of 30 years old. Let's suspect him of PED use too while we're at it.
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Old 05-20-2018, 03:45 AM   #56
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You don't have any evidence of PED use, you have speculation and suspicion. You're also saying that because one event followed another one must have been caused by the other which is a post hoc fallacy. Re Aaron, color me shocked that a man in his late 30s doesn't have the same physique he had in his mid 20s. PED use wouldn't have helped Koufax throw strikes. He was always a hard thrower, he just didn't know where it was going.


Dazzy Vance didn't become a HOF pitcher until he was on the wrong side of 30 years old. Let's suspect him of PED use too while we're at it.
Its something maybe you have heard of. It's called "circumstantial" evidence. Now I agree there is no indisputable direct evidence. But there IS evidence. If you see someone running from a house holding a knife, and then a body is discovered in the house who has been stabbed, is there indisputable direct evidence the man you saw leaving killed him? No. But there is circumstantial evidence, which is a step above suspicion. Someone leaving the house is "suspicious". Holding a knife puts it in the circumstantial tier. A man bulking up suddenly in his late 30's is suspicious. If he ALSO more than doubles his HR output than any other year, then that puts it in the circumstantial tier.
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Old 05-20-2018, 11:06 AM   #57
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Its something maybe you have heard of. It's called "circumstantial" evidence. Now I agree there is no indisputable direct evidence. But there IS evidence. If you see someone running from a house holding a knife, and then a body is discovered in the house who has been stabbed, is there indisputable direct evidence the man you saw leaving killed him? No. But there is circumstantial evidence, which is a step above suspicion. Someone leaving the house is "suspicious". Holding a knife puts it in the circumstantial tier. A man bulking up suddenly in his late 30's is suspicious. If he ALSO more than doubles his HR output than any other year, then that puts it in the circumstantial tier.
Running from a house in which someone was stabbed while holding a knife is not circumstantial evidence, it directly places someone at the scene of a crime. That knife, if it has traces of the victim's blood and matches the murder weapon is direct physical evidence, not circumstantial. In the case of Aaron and Koufax you have a nothing but speculation and suspicions while completely disregarding any other possible, far more likely explanations.

Aaron did not "bulk up". He got older and put on weight like many men do. His power was always in his forearms and wrists, if you knew anything about him other than stats you'd know that. And you'd know that from the time he came up to the majors as a kid those forearms and wrists along with superior hand/eye coordination allowed him to hit balls anywhere he wanted with rare once in a generation power. Given his talent which was evident from a very young age, the fact that he deliberately changed his swing to pull and lift the ball to take advantage of Fulton County Stadium is a far more prosaic explanation than PEDS. In the absence of anything but your suspicions and speculation, and with physical evidence being nothing more than a bigger waistline compared to when he was in his 20s, you don't even have circumstantial evidence.

If you knew anything about Koufax' biography you'd know that he had barely any experience as a baseball player and learned on the job at the big league level. I'll say it again, PEDs couldn't have made him finally throw strikes on a consistent basis. He was pitching in a Spring Training game and walked the bases loaded, again. Frustrated, his catcher Johnny Roseboro went to the mound and told Koufax to "let 'em hit it". So Koufax eased up for once and just threw the ball to Roseboro's glove. He struck out the side. From that point on it finally clicked (there's a little more to it than that, but that was the start of it) and he took pride in his pin point control. No drugs involved. He played the last two seasons of his career with elbow pain. Throwing 200 pitches a game on two or three days rest will do that.

But your free to have your suspicions.
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Old 05-20-2018, 11:18 AM   #58
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For something that doesn't help, there sure have been a lot of pitchers busted for PEDs.

Everything you said about Aaron applies equally to Bonds.
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Old 05-20-2018, 12:30 PM   #59
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For something that doesn't help, there sure have been a lot of pitchers busted for PEDs.
PEDs don't help pitchers throw strikes

Quote:

Everything you said about Aaron applies equally to Bonds.
Equally? I'm laughing. Aaron's hat and shoe size didn't grow by a couple of sizes, his waistline did. He was one of the best hitters in the history of the game who moved to a hitter friendly park. But let's accuse him of steroid use anyway. The other Braves batters took advantage of the Launching Pad too. Actual research rather that wild speculation would have showed that the Braves of the late 60s early 70s were among the top offensive teams in the NL, but had average or worse pitching.

Unlike Aaron for whom there is no evidence of PED use just wild speculation, we have proof of PED use and an admission of steroid use

Ted Williams hit 29 home runs in only 390 at bats in his last season when he was 41. Let's say that was PED use too while we're at it. There's no other explanation
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Old 05-20-2018, 08:47 PM   #60
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And why is Ken Griffey Jr not considered a compiler?

One season over 2.0 rWAR after 2000 (his age 30 season).

from 02-10, he produced 5.7 rWAR - 170 of his 630 HR
It's almost like something was different in 2001...maybe some sort of testing or something?
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