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Old 06-29-2011, 06:46 PM   #1
SiN8
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Are AI teams affected by scouting fog of war?

Dr. dru and PSU Colonel pointed out in another thread that many of the league/team reports show the "true" potential rankings despite having scouts turned on. This is a major issue as the human players can essentially cheat by knowing the future.

I was wondering if the AI is also affected by this. I did a quick check by increasing the potential of one of my lesser prospects. Before editing, no team wanted to trade for him. Right after editing, every team is willing to give up their top players for him.

I don't know if this is a bug or intentional, but it seems to be an unfair advantage to the AI that they get access to the "true" ratings while the human players have to rely on the scout. If I'm playing a game with scouting turned on, I'd want the same fog of war applied to the AI as well.

What's the point of the scouting fog of war if human and AI can easily see the "true" value of a player?

-----------Additional analysis added. Also on page 3.-------------

I completed an expand test on both OSA and AI scouting. Please find the results below.

Player development/Top Prospect analysis.

Setup

I created the following players. They are completely identical in everyway except for the name and uniform number. They are all 19 years old which theoretically should make predicting their exact potential difficult. All of them are placed in the Gulf Coast rookie league.

Their potential batting stat are set all at 150 for now.

Phillies Catcher1
Phillies Catcher2
Phillies Catcher3
Phillies Catcher4
Phillies Catcher5

With all Phillies catchers being identical, their ratings on the player development/top prospect page is as follows:

PhilliesCatcher2
PhilliesCatcher3
PhilliesCatcher5
PhilliesCatcher4
PhilliesCatcher1

This doesn't tell us much. The ordering could be due to either scouting variations or a random tie breaker.

Test #1

Then I edited the Phillies catchers to have the following potential.

Phillies Catcher1 - 152
Phillies Catcher2 - 151
Phillies Catcher3 - 150
Phillies Catcher4 - 149
Phillies Catcher5 - 148

All of a sudden, the player development page has them ranked 1,2,3,4,5 despite their being only ONE point of potential difference.

Conclusion

It's pretty clear that the player development and top prospect pages show their absolutely true rating. If there's any fog of war, it's negligible as they can pinpoint a 1 point difference out of a 250 scale.


AI Trade scouted value

Setup

I'm the manager of the Diamondbacks and created cloned a player Diamondback Catcher1 with the same stats as Phillies Catcher 3. The rest of the Phillies catchers have the above edit stats from 152 to 148.

Test #1

When I try to trade for any of the 5 Phillies players, I get an "Ok I'll have to think about it". When I try the make it work now option, Phillies Catcher 2,3,4,5 all have 11 additional players that could execute an instant trade. However, Phillies Catcher 1 only had 10 additional players. MR Heilman isn't enough to instant trade for Phillies Catcher 1. Remember, there's only 1 point of difference between Phillies Catcher 1 and 2.

Agreed! Phillies Catcher 2,3,4,5 for Diamondback Catcher 1 + MR Heilman
Maybe! Phillies Catcher 1 for Diamondback Catcher 1 + MR Heilman

Test #2

I added one additional point to Phillies Catcher 2 so that he will also have 152 for all his potential. Trying to make it work again, it looks like MR Heilman is no longer enough for Phillies Catcher 2 despite only 1 additional point increase.

Agreed! Phillies Catcher 3,4,5 for Diamondback Catcher 1 + MR Heilman
Maybe! Phillies Catcher 1, 2 for Diamondback Catcher 1 + MR Heilman

Test #3

This time around, I edited MR Heilman so he gets only one additional point in all of the pitches, movement and control categories. Despite this small increase, MR Heilman's value increased enough that the AI will accept him as part of the package.

Agreed! Phillies Catcher 1,2,3,4,5 for Diamondback Catcher 1 + MR Heilman

Conclusion
The AI uses true ratings to assess trades. If they do get re-scouted after every edit, there doesn't seem to be any fog of war in AI's evaluations. Even 1 point out of 250 is noticed right away.

Last edited by SiN8; 06-30-2011 at 11:45 AM.
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Old 06-29-2011, 07:15 PM   #2
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Ratings should be just as inaccurate for the AI as they are for you. Note scouting happens on a continually basis and accuracy of scouting increases the more a team scouts a certain player. So you have more accurate info than the AI about players in your organization since your scouting is more extensive.

Scouts will eventually adjust their opinions when you edit a player's rating. They will do it immediately if you click the re scout option. While different teams may still have different opinions about the player they should all improve on the next scouting report. The AI does not see true ratings only the obfuscated ratings from scouts. How inaccurate the ratings are depends on the scout and how many times the scout has scouted him. The more money you spend the more often players get scouted and the more accurate reports are.

You can also change how the AI sees players by playing around with AI evaluation. By defualt scouted ratings are 40% of the equation, IIRC, the rest is split between current stats, last year's stats, and 2 years ago stats. I am really not sure how minor league stats are converted if they are or how the AI evaluation is done for first year players. It is worth noting current stats are pro-rated in some way so that if you say use all current stats for evaluation, the AI does not think the guy is a scrub because he had a bad first week of the season.

What others are referring to is there have been some "cheats" in the game for many versions. Some screens supposedly show you true ratings and not the ratings the scouts give you. This has no impact on the AI evaluation. It allows the human to "cheat" and see the real stats of a player rather than what his scout is telling him. The AI does not use this info.

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Old 06-29-2011, 07:24 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by Biggio509 View Post
Ratings should be just as inaccurate for the AI as they are for you. Note scouting happens on a continually basis and accuracy of scouting increases the more a team scouts a certain player. So you have more accurate info than the AI about players in your organization since your scouting is more extensive.

Scouts will eventually adjust their opinions when you edit a player's rating. They will do it immediately if you click the re scout option. While different teams may still have different opinions about the player they should all improve on the next scouting report. The AI does not see true ratings only the obfuscated ratings from scouts. How inaccurate the ratings are depends on the scout and how many times the scout has scouted him. The more money you spend the more often players get scouted and the more accurate reports are.

You can also change how the AI sees players by playing around with AI evaluation. By defualt scouted ratings are 40% of the equation, IIRC, the rest is split between current stats, last year's stats, and 2 years ago stats. I am really not sure how minor league stats are converted if they are or how the AI evaluation is done for first year players. It is worth noting current stats are pro-rated in some way so that if you say use all current stats for evaluation, the AI does not think the guy is a scrub because he had a bad first week of the season.

What others are referring to is there have been some "cheats" in the game for many versions. Some screens supposedly show you true ratings and not the ratings the scouts give you. This has no impact on the AI evaluation. It allows the human to "cheat" and see the real stats of a player rather than what his scout is telling him. The AI does not use this info.

I believe this may not be totaly true based on the tests sin8 and I have run. If you shop a bad player no one will want him. You can then edit him and before the AI has a chance to scout him, you can shop him again and everybody will want him and give up top players for him. So it's not clear how much fog of war the AI has with scouting turned on if any.

When you use the setting base 40% on ratings it doesn't say whether it bases those 40% on scouted ratings or true ratings. After I found this out, I switched over to make the AI base all of its evaluation on stats, and the AI seems to now disregard the ratings which makes it more fair.
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Old 06-29-2011, 07:25 PM   #4
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Thanks for the explanation Biggio. That's my impression on how the game should work.

However, it seems like the AI has immediate access to my edit. I tried trading the player on the same day right after editing. I did not click on any re-scout option. My own scout still values him as a 1 star potential.
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Old 06-29-2011, 07:33 PM   #5
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I personally do not believe the AI utilizes scouts, but in fact looks at the actual ratings. However, I have no proof of this or confirmation from higher authorities.

To me, though it is how it should be. If the AI used only its scouts evaluation, then it is likely that with any player you offered in trade, some scout somewhere would think he was awesome, no matter his true quality, and you would thus ALWAYS be able to get better than you are giving in trades (read: exploit).
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Old 06-29-2011, 07:40 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by Questdog View Post
I personally do not believe the AI utilizes scouts, but in fact looks at the actual ratings. However, I have no proof of this or confirmation from higher authorities.

To me, though it is how it should be. If the AI used only its scouts evaluation, then it is likely that with any player you offered in trade, some scout somewhere would think he was awesome, no matter his true quality, and you would thus ALWAYS be able to get better than you are giving in trades (read: exploit).
Well, the human player would also be hampered by his own scouting fog of war. That kind of reflects real life, no?
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Old 06-29-2011, 07:44 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by Questdog View Post
I personally do not believe the AI utilizes scouts, but in fact looks at the actual ratings. However, I have no proof of this or confirmation from higher authorities.

To me, though it is how it should be. If the AI used only its scouts evaluation, then it is likely that with any player you offered in trade, some scout somewhere would think he was awesome, no matter his true quality, and you would thus ALWAYS be able to get better than you are giving in trades (read: exploit).

I agree with this for the most part. However, the problem I have is that this is not explained to the users. Most users believe the AI uses scouting. Then when they find out this is not the case there is bitterness toward the game. It's like finding out there is no Santa Clause.


I don't know why the manual doesn't just come out and say "The AI does not use scouting because it would result in unfair trades" simple as that, but as it is now you have to read it on a message board. And it may sound lame, but if you love the game there is some heart break there. It's the same with the bullpen warmup. The first time I read on the board that the AI doesn't use bullpen warmup a piece of the game died for me.

This could all be dealt with by the developers, but they won't comment on these things in general and instead you get the feeling of them trying to pull the wool over your eyes.

If the AI doesn't use something just state it in the manual. If the "top prospect list" is a cheat just come out and say so. Finding these things out on the boards leads to bitter players in my opinion.

I love this game but everytime I find something to not be the way I thought it was a part of me dies. May sound lame, but it's true for me at least and I suspect others as well.
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Old 06-29-2011, 07:46 PM   #8
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Well, the human player would also be hampered by his own scouting fog of war. That kind of reflects real life, no?

I agree with this as well. I think in the future I will just turn scouting off. One more thing to say good bye to:

good bye bull pen warm up

good bye players moods

good bye coaching

good bye scouting

The more you learn about this game the more heart breaking it is.
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Old 06-29-2011, 07:49 PM   #9
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You are saying we should turn all those things off? This is one of the best post i've seen in a while
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Old 06-29-2011, 07:51 PM   #10
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I personally do not believe the AI utilizes scouts, but in fact looks at the actual ratings. However, I have no proof of this or confirmation from higher authorities.
Based on my own experiments I believe this to be the case.

And that's wrong, because you and the AI should have to play by exactly the same rules.
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Old 06-29-2011, 07:51 PM   #11
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Ask Markus his take on this.. I have always thought scouting was just here..


Coaching does have an effect on strategy .. Not sure what other ways it does..


Anyone have a take on this?
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Old 06-29-2011, 07:54 PM   #12
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Ask Markus his take on this.. I have always thought scouting was just here..


Coaching does have an effect on strategy .. Not sure what other ways it does..


Anyone have a take on this?

I don't believe Markus will comment on the scouting issue or the "Top prospect report" Maybe he will on coaching.

I turn off coaching becaue managing the minor league coaching staff is more hassle than the immersion and realism it may bring.
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Old 06-29-2011, 07:55 PM   #13
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Well, the human player would also be hampered by his own scouting fog of war. That kind of reflects real life, no?
No, it does not reflect real life.

In OOTP the scouts all operate in a vaccuum, each making his own evaluation without regard for how anyone else is rating him. In the real world, scouts fraternize with one another and a more or less consensus develops on players. The more highly touted players of course get more attention and thus the level of consensus is greater. But nowhere in the real world will you find a set of vastly different reports on the same player. One organization might rate a player slightly higher than another organization, but this is usually because the skill sets of players are valued differently, not because of disagreement on what those skills are; i.e Minnesota used to like big slugging slow players a lot more than Pittsburgh, who valued speed much more. It wasn't that Minnesota thought Player A had more power than Pittsburgh thought. They just valued power more than speed and Pittsburgh wanted players with speed.

So if you had a big slow first baseman you wanted to trade, you would probably get a slightly better offer from Minnesota than you would from Pittsburgh.

In OOTP there ARE big differences in the way scouts rate players. One scout might tell you Player A has no power at all and another might say he's King Kong Re-Incarnated. Of course, the scout who thinks he's King Kong is going to give you the house for the player, where the other scout would just laugh in your face.

So I think it is MUCH more realistic for the AI teams to use a common base in evaluating players.
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Old 06-29-2011, 07:56 PM   #14
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Based on my own experiments I believe this to be the case.

And that's wrong, because you and the AI should have to play by exactly the same rules.

I agree with this, but actually it doesn't really matter to me if the AI uses scouting or not. I just wish the manual laid this out so I wouldn't have to find out for myself by playing or reading the boards.

It really is disappointing to find this out after playing the game for awhile.
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Old 06-29-2011, 07:58 PM   #15
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No, it does not reflect real life.

In OOTP the scouts all operate in a vaccuum, each making his own evaluation without regard for how anyone else is rating him. In the real world, scouts fraternize with one another and a more or less consensus develops on players. The more highly touted players of course get more attention and thus the level of consensus is greater. But nowhere in the real world will you find a set of vastly different reports on the same player. One organization might rate a player slightly higher than another organization, but this is usually because the skill sets of players are valued differently, not because of disagreement on what those skills are; i.e Minnesota used to like big slugging slow players a lot more than Pittsburgh, who valued speed much more. It wasn't that Minnesota thought Player A had more power than Pittsburgh thought. They just valued power more than speed and Pittsburgh wanted players with speed.

So if you had a big slow first baseman you wanted to trade, you would probably get a slightly better offer from Minnesota than you would from Pittsburgh.

In OOTP there ARE big differences in the way scouts rate players. One scout might tell you Player A has no power at all and another might say he's King Kong Re-Incarnated. Of course, the scout who thinks he's King Kong is going to give you the house for the player, where the other scout would just laugh in your face.

So I think it is MUCH more realistic for the AI teams to use a common base in evaluating players.

Do you play with scouting off? I think I would like to play with scouting off for major and minor league players, but keep it on for international and amature, but I don't think that is allowed.
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Old 06-29-2011, 07:59 PM   #16
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No, it does not reflect real life.

In OOTP the scouts all operate in a vaccuum, each making his own evaluation without regard for how anyone else is rating him. In the real world, scouts fraternize with one another and a more or less consensus develops on players. The more highly touted players of course get more attention and thus the level of consensus is greater. But nowhere in the real world will you find a set of vastly different reports on the same player. One organization might rate a player slightly higher than another organization, but this is usually because the skill sets of players are valued differently, not because of disagreement on what those skills are; i.e Minnesota used to like big slugging slow players a lot more than Pittsburgh, who valued speed much more. It wasn't that Minnesota thought Player A had more power than Pittsburgh thought. They just valued power more than speed and Pittsburgh wanted players with speed.

So if you had a big slow first baseman you wanted to trade, you would probably get a slightly better offer from Minnesota than you would from Pittsburgh.

In OOTP there ARE big differences in the way scouts rate players. One scout might tell you Player A has no power at all and another might say he's King Kong Re-Incarnated. Of course, the scout who thinks he's King Kong is going to give you the house for the player, where the other scout would just laugh in your face.

So I think it is MUCH more realistic for the AI teams to use a common base in evaluating players.
Good point. The solution might lie in how OOTP handles scouting then. Have the OSA represent that "consensus" value. Then each team's scouting director can differentiate slightly from the OSA value.
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Old 06-29-2011, 08:00 PM   #17
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I have thought turning coaching off was the right move because of all the hassle..
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Old 06-29-2011, 08:07 PM   #18
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I have thought turning coaching off was the right move because of all the hassle..

I wish you could keep major league coaching but turn off minor league coaching.

I turn moods off because players get mad for unrealistic reasons.

For example "I want to bat at the top of the lineup" For a power hitter or a guy with OPS of .600.

Then there is the speedy guy that has to be in the "middle of the lineup"

And you can't offer them a lower contract then they ask for without getting angry. In real life I would deal with an agent and could start with a low ball offer and work from there.
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Old 06-29-2011, 08:08 PM   #19
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I have thought turning coaching off was the right move because of all the hassle..
Well, if anything is a hassle, then it is probably not fun. And if it is not fun, there is not point in having it in your game.

For me, I like coaches existing. Even if they had no effect, I'd still want 'em.

Scouts, the same. I play with scouts on, but hardly ever pay any attention to what they say. I play with ratings off, too, by they way.....
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Old 06-29-2011, 08:32 PM   #20
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How do you play with ratings off?
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