HOF: Mike Mussina?

[darkhorse]

Originally Posted by Eckstein 4 Prez

Anyway, while I agree that Blyleven is better than Mussina

Too early to say that. Moose may well bypass the home bly leven curfew when all is said and done.

[Eckstein 4 Prez]

Originally Posted by darkhorse

Too early to say that. Moose may well bypass the home bly leven curfew when all is said and done.

True. He's only 36. He's a Hall of Famer for sure even if he never again sets foot on a baseball field, though.

[darkhorse]

Originally Posted by Eckstein 4 Prez

About 6-9 months ago, I did a little study comparing 20-win seasons from the 1970s to 17-win seasons from the 1990s - they were exactly comparable.

BB Pro translates his up to date career stats at 273-134 with a 3.19 ERA.

[Eckstein 4 Prez]

Originally Posted by darkhorse

273-134 with a 3.19 ERA.

Yeah, like those are Hall of Fame numbers.

[darkhorse]

Originally Posted by Eckstein 4 Prez

Yeah, like those are Hall of Fame numbers.

Context is da bomb diggity, yo!

[sebastian0622]

So how do Jimmy Key and John Smoltz compare to Mussina on the HoF hierarchy? Their ERA+'s are similar.

[randomlefty10]

I just don't see it.

If his AdjustedERA was up around the 140 mark where the active HOF-bound guys are, maybe. But as is?

[darkhorse]

Originally Posted by sebastian0622

So how do Jimmy Key and John Smoltz compare to Mussina on the HoF hierarchy? Their ERA+'s are similar.

Key - Out
Smoltz - In

[darkhorse]

Originally Posted by randomlefty10

I just don't see it.

This point is well established.

[Luis_Rivera]

Originally Posted by sebastian0622

So how do Jimmy Key and John Smoltz compare to Mussina on the HoF hierarchy? Their ERA+'s and DIPS stats look too close for comfort.

Adjusted for all time - (NRA, DERA)-
Moose: 3.60, 3.56
Smoltz: 3.64, 3.60
Key: 3.75, 3.88

PRAR-
Moose: 1058 in 2912.1 IP
Smoltz: 989 in 2792.0 IP
Key: 829 in 2592.2 IP

Smoltz is close, but Key really isn't.

[sebastian0622]

Originally Posted by darkhorse

Key - Out
Smoltz - In

Maybe my standards for pitchers are a bit high? The general consensus here seems to be that Mussina and Smoltz should be in, then the line is drawn between Smoltz and Key (and closer to Smoltz than Key). On the other hand, I was thinking that Mussina is borderline and the line should be drawn right below him, with Smoltz not getting in if he retired tomorrow but instead needing a few more good years. Maybe I'm just being too picky given what is already in the Hall.

[randomlefty10]

^^ agree although my line is even slightly higher.

[Luis_Rivera]

Originally Posted by sebastian0622

Maybe my standards for pitchers are a bit high? The general consensus here seems to be that Mussina and Smoltz should be in, then the line is drawn between Smoltz and Key (and closer to Smoltz than Key). On the other hand, I was thinking that Mussina is borderline and the line should be drawn right below him, with Smoltz not getting in if he retired tomorrow but instead needing a few more good years. Maybe I'm just being too picky given what is already in the Hall.

The problem generally isn't where people draw the line. It's how they establish how good pitchers (edit: I really should say 'players') are relative to that line.

[sebastian0622]

Originally Posted by Luis_Rivera

The problem generally isn't where people draw the line. It's how they establish how good pitchers are relative to that line.

I think that's certainly the problem with the old guard voters and their counting-stats-first mentality more so than it's the problem with guys around here. I had an inkling just from looking at Moose's career stats that he compared pretty closely to Smoltz in career value. From there, it's determining whether that particular value of a player should be in the Hall or not.

[randomlefty10]

Of course, if I were in charge of the Hall, I kick a good chunk of players out.

Here's my gut reaction, will I ever talk about seeing Mike Mussina pitch after he's retired? Nope.

The pitchers playing right now that I would. Pedro, Randy, Clemens, Maddux. Those 4 and no others.

[darkhorse]

Originally Posted by randomlefty10

Here's my gut reaction, will I ever talk about seeing Mike Mussina pitch after he's retired? Nope.

Shoot. I'll blather on about a host of sh*tty former Rangers. 'Course that cuts a wide swath through the all-time roster, but........

[sebastian0622]

Originally Posted by randomlefty10

The pitchers playing right now that I would. Pedro, Randy, Clemens, Maddux. Those 4 and no others.

That's my gut instinct as well. But, when you think about it a little more you have to balance out hitters and pitchers a bit. A consistent very good performer like Moose or Smoltz is hard to find in a starting pitcher. Even harder than it is to find in a position player.

I mean, how many position players are playing that you have a pretty good idea will be in the Hall down the road? Ten? Fifteen? It's more than four, that's for sure. Well, twelve roster spots usually go to pitchers. That's half a roster. Five starting pitchers per team compare to eight starting position players. There has to be a sense of proportionality in terms of putting valuable pitchers in the Hall. Not that there needs to be a "quota" by any means, but if you're going to end up putting Bernie Williams or Jim Thome or Gary Sheffield or Jim Edmonds in the Hall, you need to try to balance that out by putting pitchers in the hall who were similar in value.

Those four might not ever have been the most dominant players in their leagues, and if so, it was for a short period of time. They might not be heroes in 30 years. But precedent says they have a good shot at the Hall. They were consistently very good. Like Moose. I definitely know where you are coming from, because I do the same thing. But I have to remind myself there is already a loosely established standard for inception and try to respect that and go with that.

[Eckstein 4 Prez]

The historical precedent is to have about 9% of a season's at-bats taken by future Hall of Famers. Thus, even if that number ends up being a bit high with expansion you have to figure that there are ultimately about 30 players who make the Hall of Fame. Using that standard, there's no question that Mussina should be in.

Actually, using any standard there's no question he gets in, but I just thought you might see it more clearly in this way.

[cooper_gd]

I am shocked at how late people stay up around these parts.

[Skipaway]

Originally Posted by cooper_gd

I am shocked at how late people stay up around these parts.

What are you doing here at this hour?