Browns fans - it's ok to hate the Soldier again

[phightin]

Originally Posted by Bobbuttons

Once again, I ask... HOW has your opinion on what kind of qb Quinn will be in the NFL been proven true? As I said, he's played two full NFL games. In two NFL games, you can't make a definitive decision on anybody. I'm not saying one way or the other how he will be throughout his career, but I do know that I nobody has seen enough of him against NFL defenses to say.

My opinion of Quinn was also the opinion of 31 other NFL teams that didn't want any parts of him in the 1st round. Mind you that I'm not going to say he cant be a serviceable qb one day, but in terms of where they picked him the browns way overreached and it can be seen in the gaping areas they have all over their team. So in terms of where he was taken based on the other players available and the browns current situation, ie the worst offensive line in football, there were less sexy but far better picks they could have made.

Originally Posted by jbergey22

This is same reason guys like Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Kurt Warner (and the list goes on) get overlooked while busts like Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, Cade McNown, and David Carr happen on a regular basis. The NFL is putting too much emphasis in things like Arm Strength and forgetting what seperates the great QBs. Teams would rather take a chance on someone with a huge arm and great height over a guy that has proved he is capable of reading a defense, more importantly anticipate a defense and still make all the throws even if they arent as pretty. All I can really say about Quinn is he can make every pass he needs to and is much better at anticipating the defense than most qbs his age. You cant compare the talent Russell and Leinart had around them to what Quinn had. Its pretty easy to see how important Quinn was when u look at ND's record with him and now their record the past 2 years without him.

Firstly, all the qbs you named who were successful Drew Brees is the only one without very good arm strength. Sure Brady may not have the strongest arm, but is in fact strong enough by nfl standards and Warner actually has a cannon. In terms of the busts besides Leaf all of the others had very suspect arm strength and thus proved unable to make throws at the nfl level. Guys like Cade McNown, Tim Couch and countless other high picks didnt have the arm strength and didnt pan out. Cade McNown Page: NFL
1999 Draft Picks
Sure there are a few exceptions to the rule ie Jeff Garcia and Chad Pennington, but the bottom line is if I had to choose between two equal prospects at qb I'd take the guy with superior arm strength any day largely due that it is impossible to get a feel for how a guy will be able to read coverages at the nfl level, but that at the very least can be learned etc, arm strength can not. You want a guy who can make all the throws because while it doesnt guarantee success it gives you the best odds of the pick succeeding.

Originally Posted by marc

Arm strength is one of the most overrated things that gets looked at.

It's why when the Lions draft Stafford this year, they will continue to suck for another decade.

In fact, I'm really not sure why teams continue to take QB's in the top 5 of the draft as frequently as they do. Yes, it's the most important position on the field but the risk factor is just insane, especially with the NFL's horrible salary structure.

Go take a look at teams that have taken a QB in the top 5 of the draft and missed, it's absolutely devastating and in just about every single case has set the franchise back 5 or more years.

For every Peyton Manning and Donovan McNabb, there are five Akili Smith's.


There's really no perfect way to evaluate QB's, if there was, the success rate wouldn't be as ridiculously low as it is right now for highly drafted quarterbacks.
My opinion is that you build a team first and THEN insert a QB, preferably through free agency, trade, or a draft choice outside of the top 5-10. Too many teams want to do it the other way around and end up really hurting the franchise over the long term.

As I stated before about arm strength it is not overrated. Trust me while it doesn't embrace the typical mantra the underdog coming through, it does in fact give NFL teams the best odds of taking a great qb. Look at the recent great qbs and almost all have great or at the very least above average arm strength. Like I said before the NFL scouts are finally starting to get it right by not judging college qbs by their success and system they played in during college but instead by their qualities. Roethlisberger, Flacco, Ryan, and even arguably Cutler have all proven to be good picks that have worked out and all have great arm strength. If the Lions took Stafford, while I wouldn't agree at all with taking him #1, I would say they in all likelihood took the best qb in the draft. However, I couldn't agree more with your last point. It is much too difficult to judge qbs, and impossible to get a feel for how they'll react to nfl defenses and coverages etc. Thus it is highly problematic to take a qb with a high draft pick and you can see it as not many qbs are able to play at the nfl level. Thats why the safest picks and best picks over time have proven to be OLs DLs LBs and RBs. anything else is asking for a lot of luck to workout.

[marc]

Arm Strength is most certainly overrated.

Sure if every single attribute is equal except for arm strength, you want the stronger armed quarterback but I don't see how that makes having a rocket armed QB so crucial.

At the end of the day though, footwork in the pocket, decision-making, and most importantly, having a quick release, are infinitely more important.

The fact of the matter is that just about every single QB prospect that gets seriously looked at coming out of college has enough arm strength to make the necessary throws, it is the other attributes that separate them. It is for this reason that arm strength is overrated.


Too many times teams have fallen in love with the quarterback that can throw the ball 200 MPH but has a slow release, telegraphs his throws, forces the issue, and has happy feet when pressured. Wow, I think I just described Stafford.


A guy like Warner's success has little to do with his arm strength. He has one of the quickest releases in NFL history and he's accurate. He rarely even throws the ball past 10-15 yards.

Brady is another guy with an absolutely beautiful release and probably the best footwork of any quarterback in the NFL. Sure he has a nice arm but that is probably his 4th or 5th (at best) most important attribute.

[marc]

Ok after reading your comments a little more closely, I don't think we're that far off and that we're just looking at things a little differently.

You argue that having the arm strength to make "all the throws" is extremely important.

I obviously agree with that.

Where I think we're seeing things differently is that I think the college game sort of weeds out the guys who can't make those throws for the NFL scouts.

If you look at the top 15-20 NFL QB prospects in the draft, all of them pretty much have that ability to make the throws so it comes down to the other attributes.

I think that once a QB has a certain level of arm strength, anything past that is where it starts to get overrated. I mean you don't need to have John Elway's arm to be an all-pro QB.

[jbergey22]

I agree that scouting qb's is easily the toughest job a scout has however it is also arguably the most important position in any sport(NFL QB) so its hard for teams to wait around and try to hit the lottery in the late rounds when it comes to QBs. I think we can both agree that many strong armed qbs bust as I can admit a lot of times the smartest of QBs wont have success in the NFL because of his lack of arm strength.

The whole debate was started because of you saying that Quinn was a wasted pick. Quinn does not have a weak arm like many of the examples you have given. Like Marc says one of the most underrated qualities of good qbs is a quick release and Quinn has a great release. He is also one of the smartest qbs I have seen operate a team(especially inside of 2 min) and showed the ability to adjust as defenses adjusted to him. Taking Russell over Quinn simply because he had a cannon of an arm will prove to be another mistake in a long list of them the raiders have made.

[phightin]

I agree that guys like Warner and Brady have great success because of their quick release, but like I said thats all about ability to read coverages. They're able to get rid of the ball so quickly because of their ability to drop back and see the coverages and options etc and make great decisions. In terms of that aspect like you said we're in total agreement. Obviously the ability to read coverages and make good decisions is the single most important aspect for any nfl qb, and I would put arm strength/ability to make the throws the 2nd most behind it. I also agree that if I were the lions or any other team I wouldn't touch Stafford or Sanchez with a 10 foot pole. Both are way too suspect to warrant a high pick and are at best a late 1st round pick.

I disagree though that the college game weeds out the guys who can't make all the throws solely because of all the guys who go under the radar and the ones that are over-hyped every year. It has gotten better in recent years though, and like I said I think NFL teams are finally start to get it by being able to see past it. For instance guys like Brady, Rothelisberger, etc were on college teams that lacked the talent other more hyped guys had around them, and thus were taken lower then they should have been. Guys like Leinart, Russell, Young, Vick etc etc etc were all guys who played within a system where they had a massive amount of talent and great o-lines in front of them. They still lacked the physical and mental attributes needed for the nfl, but thus their numbers and success was vastly inflated from what it should have been, and they were able to get away with things that would never work in the nfl. A perfect example of this right now is Colt McCoy. McCoy on paper would seem to have a tremendous amount of accuracy and is able to make a lot of throws, but you couple that with the quality of the defenses in the Big 12 and the fact that he has a tendency to use his feet and run out of the pocket to make a throw and you can see how this would be problematic. It's impossible to try to get a feel of how he would react to nfl defenses, ie he looked suspect against ohio state, and i can pretty much say for a fact that he wont be able to get away with using his feet and speed in the nfl, defenses are just too fast. So instead of having a college qb who drops back and tries to read pass coverages you have one, all be it with great numbers on a great team, who uses his athleticism to get by.

Lastly, I agree with the other guy that at times there are guys like a Manning that you have to take with a high pick, but they are just too and far between. Put yourself in the position of an nfl gm, you're going to be judged not so much by the guys you dont take but more so by the guys you do. It's all about getting quality players at the position your pick is, and the safest way to do that in the early rounds is to get an OL or DL.

[Bobbuttons]

Originally Posted by phightin

My opinion of Quinn was also the opinion of 31 other NFL teams that didn't want any parts of him in the 1st round. Mind you that I'm not going to say he cant be a serviceable qb one day, but in terms of where they picked him the browns way overreached and it can be seen in the gaping areas they have all over their team. So in terms of where he was taken based on the other players available and the browns current situation, ie the worst offensive line in football, there were less sexy but far better picks they could have made.

If you think the Browns have the worst offensive line in football, then you obviously need learn more about the team. They gave up the 3rd fewest sacks in the NFL in 2007 and the 8th fewest last year. They're better at pass protection than run blocking, it seems, but even so, they do open up some holes. Jamal Lewis just doesn't have the accelleration to get through them before they close. And we don't know what the opinions of 31 other NFL teams are when it comes to the selection of Brady Quinn. We know that the teams ahead of the Browns in the draft either had greater needs or felt players would be a better fit for their system, or they felt uncertain of his first round quality (probably a mix of both for some teams). We don't know about the rest of the teams in the first round, as he had already been selected. As has already been pointed out, choosing a QB in the draft is not an exact science and you crash and burn far more often than you get your potential Hall of Famer. That being said, in most scenarios, you expect a first round qb to be able to play right away. The problem was, Quinn didn't. He was placed behind Derek Anderson (not surprising given what's happened with past first round QBs this team has had to throw out there during their rookie years, such as Couch and Fry). From that standpoint, you could maybe say that he wasn't worth a first round pick. But you can't say that simply based on how he's performed. There is nothing in the brief NFL appearances he has made that has shown that he wasn't worth the first round pick, just that he didn't start until last season, and he can't be blamed for that.

[phightin]

sorry i meant to say defesenive line when i made the statement before

[Bobbuttons]

Originally Posted by phightin

sorry i meant to say defesenive line when i made the statement before

Well, with the exception of Shawn Rogers, you aren't far off.

Then again, there is very little on the defense as a whole that is quality right now...