Patriots/Colts game - Page 3

jbergey22 · 11-19-2009, 12:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by crackpott

I'm really amazed at the number of people on a baseball forum who are arguing against statistics and reason with just... well, nothing.

Very true. Ive tried messing around with these numbers and its hard even putting in the worst possible percentages I could not supporting the decision. The best I could do was make it a coin flip for not supporting BB.

BaseballMan · 11-19-2009, 01:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by crackpott

The difference in going for it at the 28 vs. the 50 only affects the odds of the other team scoring if you don't make it. It's been accounted for.

Further, there's no reason he should get blame for making the correct decision just because it didn't work out. If you're playing blackjack and you stand on 20 on the dealer's 15, and the dealer draws a 6, you don't deserve blame, you just got unlucky when making the correct decision.

How can you account for something that has rarely happened? Show me a 79% chance of teams winning when they go for it from their own 30yd line or less. I doubt you can because it just doesnt happen that often unless a team is losing. But when a team is winning i doubt if you will find many attempts. As far as i know its 0-1 because i dont know or remember any other coach making such a bonehead call. Gutsy call yes but still wrong.

I would rather have the odds of a team going 70 yards than 28. If you cant trust your defense to stop an opposing qb from going 70 yards then it might be time for a new coach or a new defense. If going for it is the right thing to do then why wait till the last series. Why not do it all the time? You cant always rely on stats. You can give me a pctg but are you taking into account
when a sorry team is trying to stop a great team? Or when a sorry team goes for it on 4th? Is it still a 79% chance when 2 evenly matched teams are playing? If it was the right thing to do then NFL coaches would have figured it out a long long time ago. But the NFL isnt Madden football.
Does Belichek get praise whne he makes a bad call that works. Or is just considered luck? I can agree with the blackjack call but the 4th and 2 is merely your opinion that it was the right call.
Theres a lot more people that would disagree than with the blackjack call.

BaseballMan · 11-19-2009, 01:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Why is it different? It is STILL 4th and 2. Do defenses play a lot better with more field to cover or WHY would it be easier at the 50 then the 28?

Either way change the conversion rate to 45 percent and the call still makes sense.

Because there is a better chance that a team could go deep, short pass, run up the middle, or any type of play because if they lose its still at the 50. While at the 28 its mostly consevertative plays. Short quick pass or run up the middle.
The defense can be more aggressive.

jbergey22 · 11-19-2009, 01:47 AM

You dont go for it all the time at the field position because you are giving up 3 points if you fail. They were up 6 meaning that Indy needed a TD. Indy had a 53 percent chance of scoring(using league average) a TD IF they hadnt made it which is still barely above a coin flip. Take into consideration that New England had between a 45-60 percent chance of making the 1st down and it puts the odds in going for its favor.

Its Peyton Manning for cripes sakes its not Jamarcus Russell. Manning plays his best in 2 minute situations. If you watch much of the Colts youd know it would have taken Manning 3-5 plays to get from their own 30 to the Pats 30 against a soft bend but dont break defense. At that point the Colts are in the exact same situation with a minute left on the clock instead of 2 minutes. Watching the Colts move from the Pats 28 to the end zone didnt seem like the 1 minute less would have mattered.

You like to use once in a lifetimes scenarios so Hows this? Name a QB like Peyton Manning? His head, his accuracy, his arm, his quick release. He is likely the best QB to ever play the game. Its not punting the ball to Jay "Choke" Cutler.

jbergey22 · 11-19-2009, 01:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BaseballMan

Because there is a better chance that a team could go deep, short pass, run up the middle, or any type of play because if they lose its still at the 50. While at the 28 its mostly consevertative plays. Short quick pass or run up the middle.
The defense can be more aggressive.

You make an interesting point on this!

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11-19-2009, 01:47 AM	#44 (permalink)
jbergey22 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Minnesota Posts: 3,031 Thanks: 134 Thanked 126x in 95 posts	You dont go for it all the time at the field position because you are giving up 3 points if you fail. They were up 6 meaning that Indy needed a TD. Indy had a 53 percent chance of scoring(using league average) a TD IF they hadnt made it which is still barely above a coin flip. Take into consideration that New England had between a 45-60 percent chance of making the 1st down and it puts the odds in going for its favor. Its Peyton Manning for cripes sakes its not Jamarcus Russell. Manning plays his best in 2 minute situations. If you watch much of the Colts youd know it would have taken Manning 3-5 plays to get from their own 30 to the Pats 30 against a soft bend but dont break defense. At that point the Colts are in the exact same situation with a minute left on the clock instead of 2 minutes. Watching the Colts move from the Pats 28 to the end zone didnt seem like the 1 minute less would have mattered. You like to use once in a lifetimes scenarios so Hows this? Name a QB like Peyton Manning? His head, his accuracy, his arm, his quick release. He is likely the best QB to ever play the game. Its not punting the ball to Jay "Choke" Cutler.