Rumble to the White House 2008

[bigMatt]

GIULIANI ANNOINTED GOP FRONTRUNNER
Dodd inches forward in race for Democratic Delegates

In order to help regular RtWH2008 visitors make sense of the election narrative as it develops, the powers that be have established the RtWH2008 Report, an exclusive feature that will appear periodically in this thread. The report will help make sense of the numbers, and give readers a sense of what is transpiring behind the scenes throughout the election season.

In this, the first installment of the RtWH2008 Report, we have assembled four of the country's leading analysts from across the political spectrum to dissect last night's Iowa results and give readers a sense of what lies ahead in New Hampshire and beyond.

This Week's Experts:
Alicia Sappho - Newsmonth
Howard Blovius - NY Star
Deke Whirlington - Crampon.com
Larry Rankor - Back Alley Journal

Whirlington: Well, we're off to the races folks, and it looks like the polls were pretty much on track with the Iowa results. Giuliani, who was the frontrunner in the leadup to Iowa, kindda ran away with it.

Rankor: I think you can call the GOP race over.

Sappho: Oh c'mon Larry. One state down and already you are calling for a coronation?

Rankor: Well it seemed pretty clear to me that Giuliani is the guy.

Whirlington: No question Giuliani is the GOP frontrunner, but Alicia is right. Way too early to call.

Rankor: Okay, then who do you propose can beat the NY mayor? Ron Paul's campaign was very active in Iowa, yet he ended up a distant second. Who's left? Alan Keyes? C'mon.

Blovius: Fred Thompson barely campaigned in Iowa, yet finished a pretty strong fourth considering his lack of TV time. I hear his campaign has targeted New Hampshire, and I gotta think he has a chance to make inroads there.

Sappho: Thompson, McCain... and I don't think you can yet discount Paul or Keyes in this race.

Whirlington: No one is talking about Mike Huckabee, the Governor from Arkansas. While the results were admittedly uneven, Huckabee delivered some big knockout punches in certain districts throughout Iowa.

Rankor: Huckabee is dangerous, but his support is pretty narrow. I think Huckabee is more a spoiler than a serious threat to Giuliani.

Whirlington: He beat him head to head in some of the rural areas.

Rankor: It seems clear that Huckabee's endorsement will mean something down the road, as he brings a significant fringe element to the eventual nominee. But his lack of consistent support has to worry the campaign.

Blovius: They can't possibly be surprised by it tho. Polls indicated a spotty support base.

Whirlington: But do we all agree that Giuliani is the clear frontrunner going into New Hampshire?

Rankor: Definitively.

Sappho: Yes...for now.

Blovius: He looks strong.

Whirlington: Okay, turning to the Democratic race...

Sappho: Now this one could go any direction.

Blovius: Frankly, I'm surprised that a couple of the candidates with significant party support have yet to gain traction with the voters. Specifically Hillary Clinton, who is rated among the highest of this year's candidates. The campaign has to be very concerned over Iowa results.

Rankor: She didn't carry a single precinct. I agree. Very surprising.

Blovius: Clinton has to hope for at least a "show" in New Hampshire, or the tents will be folded early.

Sappho: I don't think we can discount a surge for Clinton. I hear rumblings of pretty strong grass roots support in New Hampshire.

Whirlington: If I were to have predicted the early Democratic frontrunners at this point last year, I would have probably tapped Obama, Clinton and Richardson. Yet none of them are dominant at this point. Why?

Blovius: I think you can point to a very strong Democratic field. It seems voters are having difficulty sorting things out. With the exception of Biden and Kucinich, I think just about any candidate could win this thing.

Whirlington: So it's much too early for Dodd to celebrate is what you are saying.

Blovius: The Dodd HQ has to be really happy with the Iowa returns, but yeah, there's a long way to go.

Rankor: New Hampshire will be really interesting. I could see Obama gaining momentum there.

Sappho: Don't be surprised to see Clinton rise from the dead. She may not own a true knockout punch, but she is as tactically able as any of the candidates in the field.

Whirlington: Okay, wrapping things up, who do you see coming out of Iowa with the lead on the Democratic side?

Rankor: I'm going to say Obama, with Dodd and Edwards on his heels.

Blovius: I think Richardson makes some inroads. I'll go Dodd, Edwards, Richardson.

Sappho: Obama definitely has the potential to jump ahead. I'm going to echo Larry's prediction: Obama, Dodd, Edwards.

Whirlington: I'm going to pick Dodd to continue his winning streak. I agree with Howard that Richardson is poised to pick up steam, and see him in a three horse race with Edwards and Obama coming out of the Granite State.

[bigMatt]

01/05/08



Cheyenne-In a development that pollsters are calling "a stunner," Alan Keyes has pulled off an upset, taking a narrow win in today's Wyoming Caucuses. Keyes, who ran an extensive grass roots campaign here over the past six weeks, is said to be ecstatic over the victory.

Current GOP delegate leader Rudy Giuliani placed a close second, but will not share Wyoming delegate spoils with Keyes. Fred Thompson and Ron Paul, the only other two candidates to campaign here, leapfrogged one another throughout the day, with Thompson eventually ending up in third place overall.

With his win today, Alan Keyes earns 14 delegates, taking 2nd place in the Republican delegate count.

Wyoming's Democratic caucus will not be held until March 8.




GOP
Rudy Giuliani: 40
Alan Keyes: 14




DNC
Christopher Dodd: 17
John Edwards: 10
Barack Obama: 8
Uncommitted: 12

[bigMatt]

01/08/08



Manchester - With 83% of results reported, Governor Bill Richardson, capturing 37.3% of the vote, has been declared winner of the Democratic primary in New Hampshire. Dem frontrunner Christopher Dodd and Arizona's Mike Gravel remain in a tussle for second place.



On the Republican side, NY ex-mayor Rudy Giuliani cruises to another big win in the Granite State tonight, with Wyoming caucus winner Alan Keyes a distant runner-up. With just over 11% support, Senator John McCain takes third.

Final results, along with updated delegate count, will be announced shortly.

[bigMatt]

01/08/08

Manchester - Bill Richardson and Rudy Giuliani are confirmed as tonight's winners of the New Hampshire primaries. While Giuliani's win was predicted, Richardson's victory represents a mild upset, upending the Democratic applecart once again, and leaving candidates scrambling for delegates in a political free for all.

Gov. Richardson will take away 11 delegates from the Granite state. Mike Gravel and Christopher Dodd will split the other 11 available delegates. While Gravel looked to squeak out a narrow margin in New Hampshire's popular vote (282), Dodd will collect the extra delegate due to the complicated formula used by the Democrats to assess delegates, one which takes into account all primaries to date. 8 delegates remain uncommitted until the convention.

On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani adds 12 delegates to his tally in a winner take all primary victory.

New Hampshire:



REPUBLICAN
Rudy Giuliani: 12



DEMOCRATIC
Bill Richardson: 11
Christopher Dodd: 6
Mike Gravel: 5


Delegate Count to Date:





REP
Rudy Giuliani: 52
Alan Keyes: 14




DEM
Christopher Dodd: 23
Bill Richardson: 11
John Edwards: 10
Barack Obama: 8
Mike Gravel: 5
Uncommitted: 20

[CONN CHRIS]

Alan Keyes in second place? My heart may not be able to stand the excitement!

[bigMatt]

01/15/08


Ann Arbor - Rudolph Giuliani continued his streak tonight, kayoing the rest of the field in impressive fashion to win the Michigan GOP primary.

With his victory tonight, Giuliani collects an additional 30 delegates in his march toward the nomination. Alan Keyes, who has emerged as the only other candidate of note thus far in the GOP primaries, was runner up to the ex-mayor from NYC. Willard "Mitt" Romney and Fred Thompson are currently locked in a race for third with 91% of the precincts reporting. Romney, who counted on a strong showing in Michigan to bolster his flagging campaign, will likely drop out of the race if he cannot muster at least third place in the state once governed by his father.

Final results will be announced momentarily.

[bigMatt]

Originally Posted by CONN CHRIS

Alan Keyes in second place? My heart may not be able to stand the excitement!

When readers ask who shoved this guy into the RtWH2008 spotlight, I'll be sure to give you full credit.

[bigMatt]

01/15/08

Ann Arbor - Rudy Giuliani is tonight's winner in Michigan, putting him 30 delegates closer to the Republican presidential nomination. Giuliani earned an impressive 56% of the votes in the contest. Alan Keyes, whose win in Wyoming gave him some momentum coming into Michigan, finished a distant second. Fred Thompson was well behind in third place.

Due to a decision by state party officials to move the primary up against GOP Party rules, the state was stripped of 50% of its GOP delegates. The same decision cost Michigan 100% of their Democratic delegates.

Next contests are Saturday, January 19, when Nevada hold its Democratic and GOP caucuses, and South Carolina holds its Republican primary.


Delegate Count to Date:





REP
Rudy Giuliani: 82
Alan Keyes: 14




DEM
Christopher Dodd: 23
Bill Richardson: 11
John Edwards: 10
Barack Obama: 8
Mike Gravel: 5
Uncommitted: 20

[bigMatt]

01/16/08



Ann Arbor - Conjecture swirled around the Romney camp throughout the week that the Massachusetts Governor's future in the RtWH2008 hinged on a strong showing in Michigan. After lackluster results in Iowa, Wyoming and New Hampshire, Michigan's disappointing 4th place finish, while representing the high water mark of the Romney campaign, was simply not enough to keep the Governor in the race. Today, Governor Romney made it official, ending his 2008 run for the White House, and becoming the first casualty of the 2008 campaign season.

In a brief statement, Romney spoke of no regrets, and thanked his staff and supporters for their commitment. When asked, the Governor did not make an endorsement, but left the door open that he might do so at a later date.

[CONN CHRIS]

Originally Posted by bigMatt

When readers ask who shoved this guy into the RtWH2008 spotlight, I'll be sure to give you full credit.

Keyes makes the first cut! He really knows how to stretch $11,000 on the campaign trail.

[bigMatt]

GIULIANI RUNNING AWAY WITH GOP RACE
Democratic picture remains muddy

With Iowa, Wyoming, New Hampshire and Michigan in the books, the experts revisit the RtWH2008 narrative to recap the results thus far and discuss the challenges for Democratic and Republican candidates going into Nevada, South Carolina, Florida, and Super-Duper Tuesday.

This Week's Experts:
Alicia Sappho - Newsmonth
Deke Whirlington - Crampon.com
Larry Rankor - Back Alley Journal
Gladys Palaver - NY Star (Howard Blovius is on vacation)

Whirlington: Okay, so Larry, get it out of your system. I know you've been waiting to say...

Rankor: I told you so.

[Laughter]

Rankor: The train has left the station, and Giuliani is the only passenger.

Palaver: He's driving it, more like.

Whirlington: So is there any way that the mayor does NOT get the nomination?

Rankor: Maybe if he gets hit by a train. That's about the only way.

Sappho: Now, I know. He's the prohibitive favorite. But it's still an open contest. If Alan Keyes can gain some traction, he may yet make a run for it.

Palaver: At this point, it's a one man race with Keyes the only one who doesn't know it yet.

Whirlington: Romney definitely knows it. He bowed out earlier this week.

Rankor: Romney was dead last in every contest but Michigan. After betting it all on Michigan, the man couldn't even inch out Fred Thompson for third.

Whirlington: So are we about to see more dominoes fall?

Sappho: Each of the remaining candidates except Huckabee has pulled at least 3rd in one of the primaries. I think they ride on, at least through Super Tuesday.

Rankor: Super DUPER Tuesday. Yeah, I agree with Alicia. They'll limp along until that point, then I see at most 4 left, most likely 3 and maybe even 2, depending on what happens.

Whirlington: Money has to be a concern in several camps.

Rankor: Yep. Giuliani is of course flush. And Keyes, after finishing 1st in Wyoming then second every where else but Iowa, is strong. After that, it's pretty thin. Ron Paul had that nice 2nd place finish in Iowa, but has done nothing since. Thompson has polled moderately well, but has not been able to do better than 3rd. McCain had a weak 3rd somewhere, was it Wyoming? And has bombed everywhere else. And Huckabee - God only knows why he remains in.

Palaver: Florida, is of course, huge. If Keyes, or even Thompson or Paul, can take Florida, the "race" becomes a race again.

Sappho: And of course, Super...DUPER Tuesday.

Rankor: My prediction? Our next roundtable, we're discussing who Giuliani will choose to be a running mate, because, for all intents and purposes, the primary election will be all sewed up.

Whirlington: So, turning to the Democrats....

Rankor: What a mess.

Sappho: It's wide open prairie on the left. The eventual winner is anyone's guess.

Whirlington: Anyone looking any better than anyone else?

Palaver: I think the emergence of Dodd has to be filed under the heading "unexpected."

Rankor: That "Richardson" call by Howard was bordering on the prophetic. I'm surprised he didn't cut his vacation short to come in and crow.

[Laughter]

Whirlington: Last time we talked about the Clinton campaign. While she improved markedly in New Hampshire, is it enough to carry her to Super Tuesday?

Sappho: I think so. She'll have to be prudent - probably concede Nevada - but I think she will make it. Whether or not she'll do well there is hard to know. I'd assumed the Clinton campaign would be in much better shape at this stage of the contest.

Whirlington: So who's in trouble? No question Biden and Kucinich...

Rankor: They are both gone. No one has bothered to tell them yet.

Palaver: Gotta wonder what they're thinking over at Obama HQ. After finishing 3rd in Iowa, they were nowhere to be seen in New Hampshire.

Sappho: They are no doubt concerned. I think they expected a win in Iowa and no worse than a Show in New Hampshire.

Whirlington: So what happens next? Who's looking good in Nevada and South Carolina?

Rankor: Dodd seems to be gaining traction. If he can edge out at least one more victory before the big Tuesday primaries, he'll be in a nice position to really take off.

Sappho: Richardson has the big "mo" going into Nevada. If I were to throw a prediction out there, I'd go Richardson, Dodd, Obama in Nevada and Obama, Richardson and maybe Edwards in South Carolina.

Palaver: I'm going to predict a Dodd victory in Nevada, and Obama in South Carolina. I think Hillary takes 2nd in one of those contests.

Rankor: Well if she does, it will have to be South Carolina, since she's not campaigning in Nevada. I like Dodd in Nevada, and I'm going to go out on a limb and say Edwards gets his campaign back on track with a win in South Carolina.

Whirlington: No one mentions Gravel, who took 3rd in New Hampshire.

Rankor: Fluke.

Palaver: Yeah, unlikely to repeat itself.

Whirlington: Okay, so my prediction - Richardson in Nevada, Obama in South Carolina. Dodd takes 2nd in both states, and the 3 go into Super Duper Tuesday in a virtual 3-way deadlock.

Rankor: And Biden and Kucinich go home.

[bigMatt]

As more or less promised, I've decided to adjust financials on the fly.

Initially, I gave every candidate $1 million. To run in a state costs $250,000, or a candidate can double that and go for broke in a state (gets them training in all fights for that primary). Super Duper Tuesday has 24 primaries. Given the closeness of the contests thus far, to continue this financial arrangement would force even the front runners to cherry pick where they will run on Super Duper Tuesday. Consequently, a state like NM might not have ANYONE running - or a give some second tier candidate a cheap win as the only one running.

Here's what we're going to do to fix it.

After the SC primary, I will make an assessment of each remaining candidate's finances. The frontrunner will get an infusion of donor contributions equal to the difference between his existing coffers and the $6 million needed to run in all primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday. All other candidates with at least $1 million in their coffers will receive the same amount of contribution as the frontrunner. Those with less than $1 million in their coffers will get a % based on their current war chests. Those with $250,000 or less will receive $0, as they have failed to gain enough support to be worthy of it.

So, let's say that after South Carolina, the financial landscape looks like this:

Richardson $4 million
Dodd $2 million
Edwards, Obama $750,000
Clinton, Gravel $500,000
Biden, Kucinich $250,000

Richardson would collect $2 million to reach the $6 million bogey. Dodd, having contributions in excess of $1 million, also collects $2 million - 100% of Richardson's take. Edwards and Obama would receive $1.5 million, Clinton and Gravel would receive $1 million. Biden and Kucinich would receive nothing.

This will create some forced choices in Nevada and SC. Does a candidate risk going below $500,000 and miss out on matching funds? Does a candidate double up to get to that $1 million target for 100% matching funds? And of course, with the ultimate prize being delegates, do financial considerations change the dynamics of these two contests, sidelining some and allowing the bottom feeders to sneak in a cheap win?

More to come. The polls in Nevada will be closing soon...

[bigMatt]

01/19/08




Las Vegas-With the majority of precincts reporting, the Nevada caucus has been declared a win for Rudolph Giuliani. With this win, Giuliani adds another 34 delegates to his current total, giving him 116 overall. Alan Keyes finished a distant second. Fred Thompson and Ron Paul, the only other two candidates to mount a campaign in Nevada, finished third and fourth, respectively.



On the Democratic side, Christopher Dodd took a major step forward in his bid for the party's nomination. Gleaning 63% of the vote to runner up Bill Richardson's 24%, Dodd wins Nevada by the largest margin yet in a Democratic contest in 2008. Dennis Kucinich, who invested the remainder of his money and time into the state in hopes of an upset victory, finished a very distant 3rd with well under 10%. Gravel and Edwards, the only other two candidates to mount any kind of campaign in Nevada, collected only a handful of votes a piece to finish at the back of the pack.

Nevada Results:



Rudy Giuliani: 34



Christopher Dodd: 18
Bill Richardson: 7
Uncommitted: 8


Delegate Count to Date:





REP
Rudy Giuliani: 116
Alan Keyes: 14




DEM
Christopher Dodd: 41
Bill Richardson: 18
John Edwards: 10
Barack Obama: 8
Mike Gravel: 5
Uncommitted: 28

[bigMatt]

Giuliani is obviously on cruise control, and I'm not really certain what I want to do with the financials. The ex-mayor already has enough to run in all primaries on Super duper Tuesday. Alan Keyes, who has been nabbing $500,000 in just about every contest, is on track as well. The others are somewhere between $250,000 and $750,000.

In a real election, most of these guys would either cherry pick or step aside at this point, so I'm inclined to just leave things as they are.

Alternate opinions?

[CONN CHRIS]

Keyes simply won't know what to do with all that money. Cut him back to 15,000 or he'll be lost as to how he should proceed.

[bigMatt]

01/19/08



Cleveland - On the same night of a disappointing third place finish in Nevada, Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich has declared an end to his campaign for the Presidency.

Speaking from his home in Cleveland, Kucinich pointed to results in all three democratic primaries as reason enough to end his 2008 bid. When pressed to endorse one of the remaining candidates, Kucinich indicated that he would remain neutral until "things sorted themselves out a bit."

Kucinich wagered the remains of his capital and time in Nevada, hoping to swipe an unlikely upset victory in the state. Tonight's totals, while reflecting a 3rd place finish for Kucinich, put him almost 50% behind the winner, Christopher Dodd.

[bigMatt]

Here's what I've decided to do...

I'll treat the GOP candidates like the Dems. So whatever it takes to get Giuiani to $6 million, other candidates will get a percentage based on where they are after SC. Here is what it looks like right now:

Giuliani - $4.25 million
Keyes - $2.5 million
Thompson - $500,000
Paul - $250,000
McCain - $250,000
Huckabee - $250,000

With Giuliani the prohibitive favorite, we're probably looking at $750,000 max into individual coffers.

I'm throwing the bottom 3 into SC. Only makes sense to do so. All 3 are out unless they land at least 3rd place. Thompson I'm putting in there too. If he doesn't take at least 3rd, he's down to one last shot. Giuliani and Keyes are in good shape.

So, SC means a lot for the bottom 4 candidates. Paul's performance is most disappointing, as he was #2 coming out of Iowa, and has not even placed top 3 since. Thompson has hit enough 3rd place finishes to pocket a few dollars, but he's on the edge. Giuliani's and Keyes' success has relegated the others to fighting for scraps.

Results from SC will follow shortly.

Edit: I forgot that the Republicans have the Florida primary which also precedes Super Duper Tuesday. Rather than having everyone blow out in South Carolina, I've decided to let one of the 3 bottom feeders "Last Stand" in Florida. A randomizer gives McCain a pass in SC with Florida his last chance at salvaging Presidential hopes.

Also, with SC and Fla, 2 wins will give Giuliani more than the $6 million going into Super Duper Tuesday, so we'll use Keyes as the pivotal candidate - meaning whatever it takes for Keyes to get to $6 million will be added to Giuliani's coffers, and a percentage to all remaining candidates below him as well.

[CONN CHRIS]

This is well done Matt!

A few well placed upsets on Super Tuesday and America could be shuddering at the thought of a Keyes administration!

[bigMatt]

01/19/08



Charleston - Rudolph Giuliani took another step toward his party's 2008 presidential nomination with a victory in today's South Carolina Republican primary. Giuliani held off a surprisingly tough challenge from Fred Thompson in collecting the Palmetto state's 24 delegates. While Thompson failed to earn any delegates in today's contest, his strong showing is a huge morale booster with Super Tuesday right around the corner, and will no doubt lead to an infusion of cash for his flagging campaign. Alan Keyes finished a disappointing third in today's voting.

The Democratic primary will be held next Saturday, January 26.

Delegate Count to Date:





REP
Rudy Giuliani: 140
Alan Keyes: 14




DEM
Christopher Dodd: 41
Bill Richardson: 18
John Edwards: 10
Barack Obama: 8
Mike Gravel: 5
Uncommitted: 28

[bigMatt]

01/20/08



New York - Word out of the Mike Huckabee camp tonight indicates the former Governor of Arkansas will end his bid for the 2008 GOP Presidential nomination.

Huckabee failed to make any kind of impact in the race throughout the primaries thus far, with only a smattering of support even in the states in which he campaigned.

Huckabee has not indicated he will endorse any GOP candidate at this time.