Rumble to the White House 2008

[bigMatt]

01/22/08



Houston - The Ron Paul campaign issued a press release this afternoon announcing the Houston Congressman will abandon his 2008 run for the White House. Paul's campaign began with a strong second place showing in Iowa, in an unexpected success that was never matched in succeeding primaries. Paul failed to gain traction with voters in any contest after Iowa. His campaign was particularly disappointed after a concerted effort in Nevada failed to deliver even a third place showing. A distant fourth place finish in South Carolina sealed Paul's fate, according to insider reports.

Ron Paul has not indicated a preference for any of the candidates remaining in the GOP field.

[CONN CHRIS]

Word on the street is that Paul and Huckabee are leaning Keyes.

[bigMatt]

I could leave this all behind the scenes, but some of you may wonder what's going on so I thought full transparency would serve the readers best.

Here is how the financials actually stack up pre-South Carolina:

Dodd: $2.75 Million
Richardson: $1.75 Million
Edwards: $750,000
Obama: $750,000
Gravel, Clinton, Biden: $500,000

Due to the rules I've established, anything under $500,000 gets no new infusion of money on Super Tuesday, whereas $500,000 will get 50% of whatever Dodd (or possibly Richardson if he wins SC) hauls in. With this in mind, it makes sense for the three bottom candidates to avoid SC altogether and go into Super Tuesday with a nice infusion of cash. So that's what they are going to do.

The two candidates at $750,000 really risk little to jump into the SC primary, since they are investing $250,000 and will still be eligible for $$ even if they fall flat in SC. Edwards in particular needs to jump in here, as he gets hometown advantage. I won't double up on Edwards tho, as the risk of investing $500,000 and then managing only 4th would doom his campaign. Richardson and Dodd are no brainers in SC.

I've also decided that this infusion of cash is the last that will happen in the primary. On Super Tuesday and beyond, cash distribution will be to the winners ONLY in both the Republican and Democratic primaries. So, even tho 2nd or 3rd place might glean delegates for the Dems, only 1st place will rack up donor dollars. This makes sense in that the field really needs to be winnowed down after the big day. So, for each primary, the winner gets $1 million in donor dollars for future primaries. If you win no primaries on Super Tuesday, you are done.

The SC Democratic primary will run shortly. Then to Florida for the Republicans. Word out of Tallahassee is that Fred Thompson, fresh off a strong second place finish in SC, is running very strong in Florida as well.

[bigMatt]

01/26/08



Charleston - With 87% of the precincts reporting, we are now projecting a win for favorite son John Edwards. Edwards, who came into South Carolina badly needing a strong showing, is said to be ecstatic over tonight's results. Barack Obama, another candidate in need of a boost going into Super Tuesday, is solidly in second place. Christopher Dodd and Bill Richardson are currently in a tight tussle for third.

John Edwards, who held a narrow lead in national polls leading up to the Iowa caucus, has been mired in the second tier throughout the early going. This win is a huge boost not only in morale, but puts Edwards within striking range of the lead in the hotly contested race on the Democratic side for the party's nomination.

[bigMatt]

01/26/08

Charleston - John Edwards re-emerged tonight as a contender for the nomination as his party's candidate for President of the United States. Edwards' impressive win, his first of the 2008 season, puts him back in serious play for the upcoming Super Tuesday confrontation.

With his win tonight, Edwards collects 21 delegates from South Carolina, placing him second overall in delegate count. Barack Obama, who also turned in a surprisingly strong showing in the state, leaves with 15 and leapfrogs over Bill Richardson to take 3rd with 23. Christopher Dodd, the Democratic frontrunner, earned 5, and Bill Richardson, thanks to almost a dead heat with Dodd, takes 4.

With Super Tuesday right around the corner, the Democratic race is extremely tight, with no one owning an undisputed claim to frontrunner status.

Delegate Count to Date:





REP
Rudy Giuliani: 140
Alan Keyes: 14




DEM
Christopher Dodd: 46
John Edwards: 31
Barack Obama: 23
Bill Richardson: 22
Mike Gravel: 5
Uncommitted: 37

[bigMatt]

01/29/08



Tallahassee - In the final primary before Super Tuesday, Rudy Giuliani fended off a stiff challenge from surprising runner up Fred Thompson tonight to take Florida.

Giuliani has only lost once thus far in the 2008 RtWH, the Wyoming caucus to Alan Keyes. He has proven dominant in every other contest, and while Florida was surprisingly close, in the end the people decided in favor of Giuliani.

With tonight's win, Giuliani carries a commanding lead in delegates heading into Super Tuesday. The nomination appears his to win barring a major stumble from Giuliani.

With his second place showing tonight, Thompson solidifies his standing going into Super Tuesday. While he currently has no delegates committed to him, Thompson will have the necessary funds to participate in the majority of Super Tuesday's contests, and could be on the brink of catching Alan Keyes, who placed a very disappointing 4th in Florida's primaries.

John McCain, whose campaign is on life support, will likely survive to Super Tuesday on the strength of a third place showing tonight. McCain's campaign is sorely lacking in funds, and he will undoubtedly be limited in where he will be able to campaign in what most experts are calling his last stand in 2008.

Delegate Count to Date:





REP
Rudy Giuliani: 197
Alan Keyes: 14




DEM
Christopher Dodd: 46
John Edwards: 31
Barack Obama: 23
Bill Richardson: 22
Mike Gravel: 5
Uncommitted: 37

[bigMatt]

Super Tuesday Special Edition
Giuliani primed to get GOP nod, Democratic nominee still unknown

All of the primaries and caucuses preceding Super Tuesday have been completed. On the GOP side, Rudy Giuliani has established a lead that appears insurmountable barring a total meltdown by NYC's ex-mayor. He leads a 4 candidate field in a race that will likely be over after Super Tuesday.

The Democrats have no such frontrunner. While Connecticut's Chris Dodd has taken the early lead with wins in Iowa and Nevada, he was eclipsed by Bill Richardson in New Hampshire and beaten badly last week in South Carolina, a state that went to John Edwards.

To interpret the results thus far, and suggest what to look for in the upcoming Super Tuesday contests, we have once again assembled our team of analysts for the third in a series of round table discussions.

This Week's Experts:
Alicia Sappho - Newsmonth
Howard Blovius - NY Star
Deke Whirlington - Crampon.com
Larry Rankor - Back Alley Journal

Whirlington: Well, here we are on the eve of Super Tuesday. What have we learned so far?

Sappho: Pretty much the whole GOP story. The Democrats have a long way to go, but chapter one promises some twists and turns.

Blovius: The Democratic race is like shaking a box full of puzzle pieces nd throwing them out on the table. Impossible to figure out how they all go together. Remind me not to take vacation in the middle of the primary season.

[Laughter]

Whirlington: Welcome back Howard. So Cancun wasn't as hot as the action here is what you're saying?

Rankor: Howard is back just in time for the official Giuliani coronation.

Whirlington: At this point, I think we have to all agree that Giuliani will win the Republican nomination, barring something inconceivable.

Sappho: I think it's interesting to see the Thompson surge over the past two primaries. What we thought was strong support for Keyes seems to be eroding.

Rankor: All window dressing, Alicia. Even with the shuffling around of 2nd, 3rd, and 4th, Giuliani continues to pile up the wins.

Whirlington: So Larry, none of us enjoy admitting that you are right...

[Laughter]

Whirlington: ...but it looks like about time to talk VP on the Republican side. Will Giuliani choose Keyes, Thompson, or someone not in the presidential race?

Blovius: Bernie Kerik.

[Laughter]

Rankor: Very funny Howard. My prediction is that Giuliani will go outside the field of candidates to tap a VP. A Lindsey Graham or even a Trent Lott might be on his short list.

Blovius: Trent Lott?

Rankor: I know it seems unlikely, but Lott has huge support in the South, has the rockbed conservative vote, and is well connected financially.

Sappho: I've heard the name Alan Simpson being thrown around as well. But I gotta think the strong support shown to Keyes and to Thompson make them the most serious candidates. Especially if one of them gains enough support on Super Tuesday to continue. I almost think that, by default, Giuliani takes the last man standing.

Blovius: I personally like the Giuliani/Keyes combination. It draws across a large spectrum of the Republican party.

Whirlington: So we all agree that Giuliani will win the majority of Super Tuesday contests. Who do you think will emerge as a challenger. Anyone?

Sappho: If you mean by "challenger," which candidate will take the 1-2 states necessary to continue the race for a couple more weeks, I still think it's Keyes.

Blovius: Keyes.

Rankor: My hunch is Keyes, but my wayward nature compels me to counter my colleagues prediction and go with Thompson.

[Laughter]

Whirlington: Sounds like most of you are discounting Thompson's recent surge. I think it's for real, and I'll go with the Law and Order guy. Alright, so what's up with the Democrats?

Blovius: Well, the early polls showed Edwards as the national frontrunner. Looks like he's finally got on track.

Sappho: I'm not so certain. Edwards has not really run a strong campaign. Yes, South Carolina is a nice win, but after all, this is his home state. If he can't win here, he goes home. I think it's too early to call it a surge.

Rankor: I agree with Alicia. I think the person who has to be happiest with South Carolina is Obama. To go head to head with Dodd and Richardson and beat them soundly not only validates the decision to run in South Carolina, it really makes a strong statement for his electability.

Blovius: It was a surprise on the surface, but not one when you consider the strength of the Obama campaign. Many experts saw Obama and Clinton as the strongest candidates coming into the race. This might be indication that Obama is on the verge of breaking out.

Whirlington: Well, his timing couldn't be better. Super Tuesday will make or break several of these candidates.

Sappho: The Gravel, Clinton and Biden camps all played it safe and stayed out of South Carolina, hoping to invest their remaining capital in Super Tuesday contests. While this is probably the only logical thing they could do, no doubt each is wondering how their participation in South Carolina might have changed the dynamics there.

Rankor: No question they did the right thing. But given the limited funds left in their campaigns, I don't see any of them surviving past Tuesday.

Blovius: Clinton will no doubt run in New York, and given her hometown status there, she has a great chance of winning there. That all by itself puts her back in this race.

Rankor: She will have to win BIG there. She can't share a major portion of the pie and get all the way off life support. She'll also have to win elsewhere, otherwise her lagging funds will ultimately spell doom. I really think she's just about done barring a major shift in the political winds.

Sappho: Dodd is still the frontrunner, and he really looked strong in Nevada. The Dodd camp has to be downright puzzled at his dismal showing in South Carolina.

Whirlington: Evidently, the Dodd voters went to Edwards in South Carolina.

Blovius: If Dodd was puzzled, Richardson had to be downright perplexed. He's been solid in every state so far, then falls entirely off the map in South Carolina.

Rankor: Anyone notice that Dodd is winning the caucus states, but is just tepid everywhere else? I wonder if this is an anomoly, or if we are looking at a bona fide political phenomena.

Whirlington: Money is no doubt front and center in everyone's minds going into Super Tuesday. Who is flush and who is hurting?

Sappho: Dodd and Edwards are solid. Richardson is pretty good. Obama is right on the edge - could go either way and really needs some big wins on Tuesday. Clinton, Gravel and Biden are barely breathing. The only way they survive is with a big day Tuesday.

Whirlington: Is that big day possible?

Sappho: For Clinton, I think it is. Gravel is a real longshot, but he's had his moments and I wouldn't count him out. Biden is a wish and a prayer.

Whirlington: When we reassemble next week, will we be talking about a frontrunner? What will be the lead story?

Rankor: Obama emerges. I see him well ahead of the field, followed by Dodd and Richardson. Everyone else is out except Edwards, and he will go a short time later.

Sappho: I think there are 4 who come out of this. Same 4 that Larry points to, but I think they will be close to deadlocked.

Blovius: I'm going to go waaaay out on a limb here and say that Clinton breaks into the top 3. She may still have money problems, but I think a big win in NY and several other wins on Tuesday put her back in the mix.

Whirlington: I'm going to say Dodd gains traction and pulls ahead, with Richardson and either Obama or Edwards trailing. Have a good week everyone.

[bigMatt]

Here is a breakdown of what's at stake on Super Tuesday:

Alabama Primary
Dem - 60 delegates
Rep - 40 delegates

Alaska Caucus
Dem - 18 delegates
Rep - 29 delegates

American Samoa Caucus
Dem - 9 delegates

Arizona Primary
Dem - 67 delegates
Rep - 53 delegates

Arkansas Primary
Dem - 47 delegates
Rep - 34 delegates

California Primary
Dem - 441 delegates
Rep - 173 delegates

Colorado Caucus
Dem - 71 delegates
Rep - 46 delegates

Connecticut Primary
Dem - 60 delegates
Rep - 30 delegates

Delaware Primary
Dem - 23 delegates
Rep - 18 delegates

Georgia Primary
Dem - 103 delegates
Rep - 72 delegates

Idaho Caucus
Dem - 23 delegates

Illinois Primary
Dem - 185 delegates
Rep - 70 delegates

Kansas Caucus
Dem - 41 delegates

Massachusetts Primary
Dem - 121 delegates
Rep - 43 delegates

Minnesota Caucus
Dem - 88 delegates
Rep - 41 delegates

Missouri Primary
Dem - 88 delegates
Rep - 58 delegates

Montana Caucus
Rep - 25 delegates

New Jersey Primary
Dem - 127 delegates
Rep - 52 delegates

New Mexico Caucus
Dem - 38 delegates

New York Primary
Dem - 281 delegates
Rep - 101 delegates

North Dakota Caucus
Dem - 21 delegates
Rep - 26 delegates

Oklahoma Primary
Dem - 47 delegates
Rep - 41 delegates

Tennessee Primary
Dem - 85 delegates
Rep - 55 delegates

Utah Primary
Dem - 29 delegates
Rep - 36 delegates

West Virginia Caucus
Rep - 30 delegates

Democrats Abroad Primary
Dem - 11 delegates


Totals

Democratic: 24 contests, 2084 delegates (2025 needed to win nomination)
Republican: 21 contests, 1081 delegates (1191 needed to win nomination)

[bigMatt]

Republicans - 1191 delegates needed for party's nomination

Rudy Giuliani
Delegate count: 197, Financials: $8.75 million

Alan Keyes
Delegate count: 14, Financials: $5.25 million

Fred Thompson
Delegate count: 0, Financials: $4.0 million

John McCain
Delegate count: 0, Financials: $250,000


Democrats - 2025 delegates needed for party's nomination

Christopher Dodd
Delegate count: 46, Financials: $6.0 million

John Edwards
Delegate count: 31, Financials: $4.75 million

Barack Obama
Delegate count: 23, Financials: $4.25 million

Bill Richardson
Delegate count: 22, Financials: $4.75 million

Mike Gravel
Delegate count: 5, Financials: $2.125 million

Hillary Clinton
Delegate count: 0, Financials: $2.125 million

Joe Biden
Delegate count: 0, Financials: $2.125 million


* Keep in mind that each primary/caucus cost the candidate $250,000 to run, so not all candidates will be able to run in all of the Super Tuesday contests. The decision will be whether to go for just the big delegate states and hope to strike it rich, or some of the smaller contests where there may be less candidates running. Candidates can double up on any state at the price of $500,000, but this of course limits them further.

** Also note that beginning with Super Tuesday contests, financials are winner take all. Consequently, donor $ ($1 million) only go to first place finisher in each state's primary or caucus.

[CONN CHRIS]

Here's to hoping Keyes can sneek in with a few wins in big states.

KEYES 08

[bigMatt]

02/05/08





Mobile - Rudy Giuliani withstood a stiff assault by Fred Thompson tonight to win the Alabama primary. With just over 80% of precincts reported, Giuliani leads by a margin of 7%. Alan Keyes is well behind the two frontrunners.



Christopher Dodd is the projected winner for the Democrats, looking to carry Alabama by a margin exceding 50%, about 20 percentage points higher than second place finisher John Edwards. Barack Obama is a distant third - currently in single digits, and Bill Richardson, with just under 3% of the vote, is fourth and last among active participants.

[bigMatt]

Originally Posted by CONN CHRIS

Here's to hoping Keyes can sneek in with a few wins in big states.

KEYES 08

Your boy seems to be fading fast. After showing as the Giuliani alternative in the early going, he can't seem to now get past Big Fred, who has done well in all the southern primaries to date. Perhaps Thompson should have waited for me to sim the campaign and planned his strategy accordingly....


On the bright side for you, home state hero Chris Dodd seems to be hanging tough on the Democratic side.

[bigMatt]

02/05/08



Little Rock - News out of the state capital tonight is that Rudy Giuliani's streak of wins will remain unbroken. With just under 24% reporting, we are projecting the NYC ex-mayor the victor of tonight's contest. Alan Keyes sits in second with little chance of catching the frontrunner.




In the topsy-turvy world of the Democrats, John Edwards appears to be pulling away from the field tonight, with only Bill Richardson on his heels. Hillary Clinton, who hoped for a resurgence in a state for which she served as First Lady, is currently a distant third. Barack Obama and Chris Dodd appear out of the running.

[bigMatt]

02/05/08



Hartford - This out of Connecticut...with 48% reporting, Rudy Giuliani has been declared the victor. Fred Thompson trails Giuliani's 61% by well over 30%, and Alan Keyes is in single digits.

The Democratic race is still too close to call, as all three candidates who campaigned here - Bill Richardson, John Edwards, and native son Chris Dodd - appear locked in an extremely close contest.

[CONN CHRIS]

Come on people, throw Alan a bone. Alaska maybe?

[Brooks TVB]

Originally Posted by CONN CHRIS

Come on people, throw Alan a bone. Alaska maybe?

I'm doubting it.

[bigMatt]

02/05/08



Augusta - With 77% of precincts reporting, Rudy Giuliani has been declared winner of the Georgia primary. Giuliani KO'ed his opponents with a solid victory.



It looks right now that the Democratic primary winner will be NM Gov. Bill Richardson, in his second victory of the season. Richardson currently holds a 7% lead over runner up John Edwards. Overall Democratic delegate leader Christopher Dodd is a distant third.

[bigMatt]

With results trickling in, here is an update of what we know right now on the GOP side concerning Super Tuesday results:

Rudy Giuliani

wins: Alabama, Arkansas, Connecticut
projected win: Georgia

delegates won so far today: 184
delegate count overall: 381
delegates needed for nomination: 1191

The Democratic update will appear later on this afternoon. Two of the contests still remain too close to call.

[bigMatt]

02/05/08






Hartford - In an incredibly tight three way tussle, it now appears that Sen. John Edwards has emerged victorious tonight in what has to be considered an upset over native son Christopher Dodd.

With 98% of precincts reporting, Edwards holds a very narrow lead over both the Connecticut Senator and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson. We are projecting a victory for the Senator from South Carolina.

[CONN CHRIS]

I didn't know Edwards did beat box.