Rumble to the White House 2008

[CONN CHRIS]

Originally Posted by bigMatt

Tonight's activities have put the stamp of inevitibility on Rudy Giuliani as the Republican nominee. Unless by some miracle either Alan Keyes or Fred Thompson take California, they will each end their bids tomorrow and throw their support (and Keyes' 13 delegates) to Giuliani.

Should I even hope for a punchers chance or just go to bed and read the inevitable news in the morning paper?

[bigMatt]

Originally Posted by CONN CHRIS

Should I even hope for a punchers chance or just go to bed and read the inevitable news in the morning paper?

Honestly, you never know. On paper, both Thompson and Keyes have a shot. But Giuliani, the Mickey Walker of RtWH2008, does have the stench of inevitability.

I'd say hang tight. The news will be delivered within the half hour.

Look at the bright side - in all probability, you will soon be able to focus on campaigning for Veep on behalf of Mr. Keyes.

[bigMatt]

02/05/08



SACRAMENTO - California voters have put a definitive end to the 2008 Republican presidential primaries, annointing Rudy Giuliani as the party's nominee with a landslide victory in tonight's GOP primary.

With less than 15% of precincts reporting, the Democratic contest is still too close to call.

Giuliani is said to be "giubulant" over the victory, declaring it a "mandate" for his campaign. The former NYC mayor kayoed all comers throughout the primary season to date, losing only one contest, Wyoming, since the beginning of the 2008 campaign. Though he would take no questions regarding his choice for VP, Giuliani was gracious to both California runner up Fred Thompson, and fellow candidate Alan Keyes in his victory speech.

Delegates won in California:
Republican
Giuliani - 170


Delegate count overall:

Republican - 1191 needed

Rudy Giuliani - 1215*
Alan Keyes - 13


* Wins part nomination

[bigMatt]

While it is still too early to tell for certain, word out of Sacramento is that there will definitely be a clear frontrunner after tonight's Democratic primary, a contest in which 370 declared delegates are at stake...

[bigMatt]

02/05/08



SACRAMENTO - With a big win tonight, Senator John Edwards has made a large stride toward capturing the Democratic nomination. Edwards, who had a solid performance throughout the nation Super Tuesday, has eclipsed Senator Chistopher Dodd for the lead in the race for delegates. Governor Bill Richardson perches just behind Dodd after collecting a sizable share of California's 370 committed delegates. Senator Dodd came in a distant third, and Hillary Clinton, the only other candidate to score delegates in tonight's California contest, was fourth.

Delegates won in California:
Democratic
Edwards - 170
Richardson - 143
Dodd - 50
Clinton - 7

Delegate count overall:


Democratic - 2025 needed

John Edwards - 552
Christopher Dodd - 506
Bill Richardson - 485
Barack Obama - 230
Hillary Clinton - 43
Joe Biden - 27
Mike Gravel - 18

[bigMatt]

02/09/08

Biden, pictured here next to Senator Chris Dodd, ends bid for White House.

In a move that no one considered a surprise, Senator Joe Biden ended his bid today for the 2008 Democratic nomination. Biden leaves the contest with a handful of delegates but no primary or caucus wins.

Biden has indicated that he will at some point throw his support to one of the Democratic candidates, although he gave no hint as to who this might be or when. While not representing a particularly substantial amount, Biden's 27 delegate collection will be a valuable acquisition for anyone in this hotly contested Democratic campaign.

[CONN CHRIS]

Well, there goes my second favorite figure in the whole shhoting match. I sure am glad that I didn't wait up for the returns to come in on my favorite.

[bigMatt]

Originally Posted by CONN CHRIS

Well, there goes my second favorite figure in the whole shhoting match. I sure am glad that I didn't wait up for the returns to come in on my favorite.

Sorry Chris, the fickle hand of the electorate is entirely out of my control...

[bigMatt]

Current Democratic Delegate Count - 2025 needed to win party's nomination

John Edwards
wins today: (8) Arizona, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Kansas, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico
delegates won today: 521
delegate count overall: 552

Christopher Dodd
wins today: (8) Alabama, Alaska, American Samoa, Delaware, Idaho, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota
delegates won today: 450
delegate count overall: 506

Bill Richardson
wins today: (5) Georgia, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Colorado, North Dakota
delegates won today: 463
delegate count overall: 485

Barack Obama
wins today: (1) New York
delegates won today: 207
delegate count overall: 230

Hillary Clinton
wins today: (1) Utah
delegates won today: 23
delegate count overall: 23

Mike Gravel
wins today: (1) Democrats Abroad
delegates won so far today: 10
delegate count overall: 15

[bigMatt]

02/12/08

Mike Gravel today ended his bid for the 2008 Democratic nomination. Gravel, who never did gain traction during the primary season, saw his last, best opportunity go by the boards when his home state of Alaska passed him over in favor of Christopher Dodd. Gravel leaves the race with only 15 delegates. There is no indication from the Gravel camp that he will endorse another democratic candidate in the near future.

[bigMatt]

Super Tuesday Results Dissected
Giuliani sews up GOP nomination, Edwards leads Democratic field

Our team of experts reviews the results of Super Tuesday, reveals trends and predicts long-term impact of Tuesday primaries and caucuses.

This Week's Experts:
Alicia Sappho - Newsmonth
Howard Blovius - NY Star
Deke Whirlington - Crampon.com
Larry Rankor - Back Alley Journal

Whirlington: Good afternoon everyone. So did the results of Super Tuesday surprise anyone?

Blovius: Okay - I'll admit it. I didn't think Giuliani would entirely clean house the other night. I figured Thompson or Keyes would snag at least one primary.

Rankor: Giuliani seems absolutely unstoppable. I think the only thing that might keep the NYC mayor out of the White House would be something of his own doing.

Sappho: I don't know, Larry. While Giuliani's trumping of the GOP field is indeed, impressive, I just have to wonder if it is due more to the quality of the field on the GOP side than it is to Giuliani's own appeal.

Rankor: You can't deny that Giuliani is a big draw across the board. While there is of course no solid data regarding his potential against the Democratic field, my gut tells me that he's in the cat bird seat.

Whirlington: Well, time will tell. One thing that's important for Giuliani is that he finds a way to remain relevant. It will be easy for him to disappear from the front page now that he's captured the nomination.

Sappho: I agree. The Dems will get the press with the contests so close. Giuliani has to find a way to make news himself.

Rankor: Easy. He begins floating out VP rumors.

Whirlington: Speaking of Vice President...who are the frontrunners?

Blovius: No doubt Thompson and Keyes get close scrutiny. Especially Keyes given that he was the only guy not named Giuliani who won a primary.

Whirlington: Okay, and who else?

Rankor: I personally think Sam Brownback would be a good pairing for Giuliani.

Sappho: Lindsey Graham, Charlie Crist...maybe Newt Gingrich...

Whirlington: So, is there a "cross section" that Giuliani needs that a VP can deliver for him?

Blovius: No one has really mentioned her much, but I think Condoleeza Rice might be a good Veep for Giuliani. I don't know whether it counts as a "cross section," but those supporting this administration might be more inclined to actively support Giuliani if he has Dr. Rice on his ticket.

Whirlington: So looking to the other side, what are we seeing among the Democrats:

Sappho: Maybe a bit of sorting out. With Gravel and Biden out, and Obama and Clinton seriously on the ropes, it is looking more and more like a three horse race. And Edwards, slowly but surely, looks to be on the ascension.

Rankor: I think you'll see both Obama and Clinton gone after the next couple of primaries. With campaign costs ramping up, I doubt you'll see either of these candidates around much longer.

Whirlington: Is anyone else shocked at the performance of these two candidates? I believe both of them were at or near the top of most pundits' prediction lists at the outset of the campaign.

Blovius: I think most of us figured the Clinton campaign was a longshot, but Obama's failure thus far is definitely a surprise.

Whirlington: So can we say, at this point, that Edwards is the clear frontrunner?

Sappho: The clear frontrunner, yes, but not the prohibitive favorite. At least, not yet.

Rankor: At this point, it looks like Edwards or Dodd. Richardson is a really longshot and the rest are on their way to the sidelines.

Blovius: Edwards does look just ever so slightly superior at this point. But Dodd has been strong as well, and remains well-financed for the long haul.

Whirlington: We have 26 primaries left. The winner needs 2025 delegates. Edwards leads in the count with 552, but even if he captures the majority of votes, he is unlikely to reach 2025 by convention time. So what happens next?

Sappho: There are a couple of things to look for: 1) The movement of delegates as candidates drop out of the race. Endorsements will become important - especially Obama's; 2) The big Mo - momentum. If Edwards (or perhaps Dodd) can string a few together, they can begin to make the case for party unity. That's not going to happen until one of these guys really breaks out and gets ahead of the field by at least a couple hundred. Edwards' lead of 70 really isn't enough yet.

Whirlington: What's next on the Primary calendar?

Rankor: February 9 - we'll be looking at 2 big contests in Washington and Louisiana, as well as Nebraska and Rhode Island. Then Maryland and Virginia fall three days later.

Whirlington: Predictions?

Blovius: Edwards breaks out. By the end of February, he's the Democratic nominee. Keyes becomes the VP for the Republicans.

Rankor: Well, I guess that's specific Howard. I think Edwards will win as well, but I'm not sure he'll have it sewn up by the end of February. Don't be surprised to see all 3 of the frontrunners still in it come March 1.

Sappho: I think it will be a two horse race by month's end. with both Dodd and Edwards courting Richardson big-time for his support.

Whirlington: I'm going to go way out on a limb and say Obama wins one of the next two contests and somehow remains in the hunt through February. Four candidates will remain and only Clinton will go home.

Rankor: Wow, that is going out on a limb Deke. I hope you don't hurt yourself when that limb gets cut off behind you in a few days...

Whirlington: Well, we'll know a bit more next time we get together again. In the mean time everyone, have a good week.

[bigMatt]

Candidates will now be required to invest $500,000 into each Democratic primary or caucus they enter from this point forward. Here are the current finances:


John Edwards - $8 million
Christopher Dodd - $8 million
Bill Richardson - $5 million
Barack Obama - $1 million
Hillary Clinton - $1 million

[Romultiltus]

Glad to see that Christopher Dodd has a solid base of support in American Samoa.

[bigMatt]

Originally Posted by Romultiltus

Glad to see that Christopher Dodd has a solid base of support in American Samoa.

If I were running for president, American Samoa would DEFINITELY be worth a campaign stop...

[bigMatt]

02/09/08

There are four primaries/caucuses today, and one tomorrow. Both Senators Clinton and Obama are down to final hopes. Bill Richardson must be judicious with his cash. John Edwards and Christopher Dodd continue to slog it out, toe to toe.

Here is what is at stake today:

Virgin Islands - 3 committed delegates
Nebraska - 24 committed delegates
Louisiana - 56 committed delegates
Washington - 78 committed delegates

and tomorrow:

Maine - 24 committed delegates

Obama will stake his hopes on the states of Louisiana and Washington. If he does not win one of these states, his campaign is finished.

Clinton is focused on Washington today and Maine tomorrow. She needs a win in one of these states to remain in the race.

Richardson is running in every race except the Virgin Islands, where only Senators Dodd and Edwards appear on the ballot.

Polls are now open in Sunday's races. Results will be posted as they are received.

[bigMatt]

02/09/08

New Orleans - Showing that his campaign is far from finished, Senator Christopher Dodd tonight claimed a solid victory in the Louisiana primary. Dodd outpolled current Democratic frontrunner John Edwards and third place finisher Barack Obama by better than 2 to 1. Governor Bill Richardson lagged far behind the rest of the field.


Democratic Delegates won in Louisiana:
Dodd - 30
Edwards - 16
Obama - 10

Delegate count overall:


Democratic - 2025 needed

John Edwards - 568
Christopher Dodd - 536
Bill Richardson - 485
Barack Obama - 240
Hillary Clinton - 43
Joe Biden - 27
Mike Gravel - 18

[bigMatt]

02/09/08

Virgin Islands - Mirroring his success in American Samoa, Christopher Dodd won an overwhelming victory tonight in the Virgin Islands Territorial Meeting to select a Democratic nominee. Senator Dodd will collect all 3 committed delegates as the result of tonight's victory.

Democratic Delegates won in Virgin Islands:
Dodd - 3

Delegate count overall:


Democratic - 2025 needed

John Edwards - 568
Christopher Dodd - 539
Bill Richardson - 485
Barack Obama - 240
Hillary Clinton - 43
Joe Biden - 27
Mike Gravel - 18

[bigMatt]

02/09/08



Omaha - Continuing his conquest of the midwest, Senator John Edwards has won the Nebraska Caucus. With wins in Kansas, Missouri, and now, Nebraska, Edwards appears to be the candidate of choice in America's heartland. With his victory, Edwards builds on his lead in Democratic delegates. Governor Bill Richardson was a distant runner up in the Nebraska contest.

Democratic Delegates won in Nebraska:
Edwards - 17
Richardson - 7

Delegate count overall:


Democratic - 2025 needed

John Edwards - 585
Christopher Dodd - 539
Bill Richardson - 492
Barack Obama - 240
Hillary Clinton - 43
Joe Biden - 27
Mike Gravel - 18

[bigMatt]

02/09/08

SEATTLE - With his campaign at the very brink of extinction, Senator Barack Obama will declare victory tonight in Washington state. Finances running dry, Obama faced a certain "win or go home" situation. While the victory in Washington was as impressive as it was unexpected, it must be recognized as only a temporary stay of execution for the Obama campaign unless he continues to win in upcoming primaries.

Governor Bill Richardson finished a strong second in today's caucuses.

Democratic Delegates won in Washington:
Obama - 39
Richardson - 25
Dodd - 10
Edwards - 3
Clinton - 1

Delegate count overall:


Democratic - 2025 needed

John Edwards - 588
Christopher Dodd - 549
Bill Richardson - 517
Barack Obama - 279
Hillary Clinton - 44
Joe Biden - 27
Mike Gravel - 18

[bigMatt]

02/10/08


PORTLAND - After seeing yesterday's must-win victory by opponent Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton no doubt hoped lightning would strike twice in two days as she pinned her final hopes on a Maine victory.

But Clinton, while finishing a respectable third in today's contest, will be denied in what is likely the final chapter of her bid for the 2008 Democratic nomination.

A resurgent Christopher Dodd will take the trophy tonight in Maine. But the caucus results were exceedingly close between the Connecticut Senator and second place finisher Senator John Edwards, indicating that, while Dodd can declare victory tonight, he will collect only a pittance more delegates from Maine than will Edwards, the current Democratic front-runner. Governor Bill Richardson finished a disappointing 4th.

With his campaign on life support, Obama mounted no effort in Maine.

Democratic Delegates won in Maine:
Dodd - 10
Edwards - 8
Clinton - 4
Richardson - 2

Delegate count overall:


Democratic - 2025 needed

John Edwards - 596
Christopher Dodd - 559
Bill Richardson - 519
Barack Obama - 279
Hillary Clinton - 48
Joe Biden - 27
Mike Gravel - 18