Rumble to the White House 2008

[bigMatt]

Down the Backstretch
Democratic field winnowed, Giuliani collects VP resumes

The experts are back to analyze the latest results and discuss upcoming contests.

This Week's Experts:
Alicia Sappho - Newsmonth
Howard Blovius - NY Star
Deke Whirlington - Crampon.com
Larry Rankor - Back Alley Journal

Whirlington: And then there were three.

Rankor: Indeed. While he hasn't yet announced it, I see no alternative for Obama at this point, but to drop out of the race.

Blovius: Delegate-wise, he seems to be in the hunt. He took delegates out of both of the Potomac primaries in which he ran.

Rankor: Yes, but he is completely tapped out of cash.

Sappho: I've been in contact with the Obama camp, and there is a good chance he will merely suspend his campaign for now.

Whirlington: Isn't "suspend" just another word for "drop out?"

Sappho: Well, no, not exactly Deke. If he suspends his campaign, he's done actively seeking votes, but he holds onto the delegates he's already collected. It's a solid strategy with an eye toward the convention.

Rankor: A brokered convention could turn out to be anyone's to win. Anyone who is still technically in the race, anyway.

Whirlington: So, do any of you think Obama could actually go to the convention and win, having suspended his campaign from now until August?

Sappho: Maybe not win, per se, but he'd definitely have a big say-so regarding the platform of whoever does win.

Blovius: He'd be a kingmaker basically.

Sappho: Exactly.

Blovius: Or he could maybe leverage a VP post out of it.

Rankor: How cynical of you Howard!

Blovius: Not meaning to be cynical Larry. Just saying, his support could be a good argument for putting him on the ticket.

Whirlington: That Washington win was truly something, I have to say.

Sappho: Barack had a couple of 11th hour wins to stay in the race. Unfortunately, he didn't have any until the 11th hour, and there are only so many bullets a candidate can dodge in such a competitive race.

Whirlington: So who benefits from Obama's expected departure?

Rankor: Obama seemed to be beating Dodd the most consistently. I think Dodd will benefit most.

Blovius: I pretty much agree with Larry, although I don't necessarily think you can take that assumption to the bank.

Sappho: I'm not so sure. Obama did throw an occasional wrench in the primaries, but Edwards and Dodd seem to match up pretty evenly across the board. The most interesting thing I continue to see is Richardson coming in second. He is only a few dozen delegates behind, yet has won quote a few less primaries than Dodd or Edwards.

Whirlington: There is no question that Richardson's support has been most consistent. Unfortunately for him, it's been consistently second place, which will eventually throttle his campaign financially.

Sappho: Yep, that's the deal for Richardson. If he can't start capturing some victories in short order, he'll soon be in the situation Obama faced the last couple of weeks.

Whirlington: Okay, so turning to the Republican side...

Blovius: This is quite a vacation for Rudy.

Rankor: Vacation indeed. He's probably laughing at all the back and forth among the Democrats.

Sappho: I'm guessing the Giuliani camp rejoiced at the demise of Obama. The Obama campaign was considered the one to most closely rival Giuliani's in organization. It still is amazing to me that Obama couldn't make a better showing in the primaries, given his organization and supposed grass roots support.

Rankor: I know many of the pundits had Obama rated highest among the Democratic challengers. Shows what we know.

Whirlington: Who will Giuliani choose to occupy the ticket with him?

Blovius: Keyes is undoubtedly the favorite, as we surmised a couple of weeks ago. But the field is getting crowded. In addition to Keyes and Thompson, I've heard the names of Jeb Bush, Condi Rice, Colin Powell...even Ron Paul.

Rankor: And let's not forget the Kansas Senator, Sam Brownback.

Sappho: Larry, I think you are the only one who hasn't forgotten him.

<Laughter>

Whirlington: So who gets the nod?

Blovius: I still think Keyes.

Rankor: Rice.

Sappho: Keyes I'm guessing. Or Powell.

Whirlington: I'll say Bush. And with that, we're out of time. Thanks everyone.

[bigMatt]

02/19/08


Polls are now open in Wisconsin for today's Democratic Primary. Later today, Hawaii will conduct it's caucus as well.

94 committed delegates are at stake between the two contests - 20 in Hawaii and 74 in Wisconsin.

Three candidates have actively campaigned in the two states and appear on both ballots. Senator Christopher Dodd is the current delegate leader with 641, followed by 626 for Senator John Edwards and 568 for Governor Bill Richardson.

Conceivably, any of the candidates could leave today with a delegate lead, although with only three in the race and the DNC's method of allocating delegates, it would be nearly impossible for Richardson to overtake the leaders today unless he totally annihilated them both in each contest.

Results will be posted as soon as they are made available.

[CONN CHRIS]

Originally Posted by bigMatt

Blovius: I still think Keyes.

I concur!

[bigMatt]

02/19/08

Grace Dodd, daughter of Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn.,
tells her father to let the voters do the talking.

Madison - Senator Christopher Dodd won a crucial contest today, trouncing rivals John Edwards and Bill Richardson in Wisconsin. Dodd pulled into a narrow lead in the Democratic race for delegates on the strength of solid victories last week in Washington, D.C., and Virginia, and with tonight's win, continues his surge in the polls. Senator Edwards, who campaigned hard in the state, trailed the Connecticut Senator throughout the day, and finished well behind in votes. Governor Richardson, whose campaign is now starting to feel the pressure of badly needing a win to keep afloat, placed third in Wisconsin and failed to take any committed delegates from the state.

While the race remains close, the Wisconsin win affords Sen. Dodd a tiny bit of breathing room in the race to represent the Democratic party in the 2008 General Election.


Democratic Delegates won in Wisconsin:
Dodd - 49
Edwards - 25

Delegate count overall:


Democratic - 2025 needed

Christopher Dodd - 690
John Edwards - 651
Bill Richardson - 568
Barack Obama - 304




Out of the Race

Hillary Clinton - 48
Joe Biden - 27
Mike Gravel - 18

[bigMatt]

02/19/08



Honolulu - Tonight, Senator John Edwards will declare victory in Hawaii, winning handily in the State's caucus. With the win, Edward splits today's contests at one apiece. Though Hawaii offers considerably less committed delegates (20) than Wisconsin (74), Senator Edwards will benefit from the fact that his landslide victory in the state will net him 16 of them, with the other 4 going to Senator Chris Dodd. Governor Bill Richardson, who is limited by financial considerations, chose not to run in Hawaii. There was also some thought that Senator Barack Obama might return to the race for a shot at Hawaii, a state he called home for a number of years during his childhood. But the Illinois Senator's bid failed to materialize.

Democratic Delegates won in Hawaii:
Edwards - 16
Dodd - 4

Delegate count overall:


Democratic - 2025 needed

Christopher Dodd - 694
John Edwards - 665
Bill Richardson - 568
Barack Obama - 304




Out of the Race

Hillary Clinton - 48
Joe Biden - 27
Mike Gravel - 18

[Brooks TVB]

Go Dodd Go!

[bigMatt]

The RtWH2008 will take a brief respite as the Nation turns its eye toward The Rotisserie Baseball draft this Saturday!

Be back next week...

[bigMatt]

We are on the eve of the mini Super Tuesday. The March 4th primaries, held in the states of Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas and Vermont, represent a cache of almost 400 pledged Democratic delegates available.

Both the frontrunner, Senator Christopher Dodd, and his close challenger, Senator John Edwards, have campaigned hard in each of the four states. In this tight contest, every single delegate counts.

Governor Bill Richardson, his war chest facing a severe financial crisis, will only be running in the day's two largest contests: Ohio and Texas. The Richardson campaign is desperate for a victory, and has pulled out all of the punches to earn an upset in Ohio and Texas.

No word still from the Obama campaign on when or if he will formally declare that he is out of the race.

[bigMatt]

03/05/09



PROVIDENCE - In the first projected results of the night, Senator Christopher Dodd will earn a lopsided victory in the state of Rhode Island. With 21 Democratic delegates at stake, Rhode Island is a small part of the political landscape. But Dodd's victory, particularly its margin, is notable.

With Dodd's big win today, and Edwards' victory of similar proportion in Hawaii a couple of weeks ago, it is as of yet unclear which candidate a two person race would ultimately favor.

Democratic Delegates won in Rhode Island:
Dodd - 16
Edwards - 5

Delegate count overall:


Democratic - 2025 needed

Christopher Dodd - 710
John Edwards - 670
Bill Richardson - 568
Barack Obama - 304




Out of the Race

Hillary Clinton - 48
Joe Biden - 27
Mike Gravel - 18

[bigMatt]

Montpelier - With over 50 percent of all votes counted, the Vermont Democratic primary is still too close to call between frontrunner Christopher Dodd and John Edwards. Currently, Senator Edwards leads by about 700 votes.

Results will be updated as they are received.

[bigMatt]

03/05/08



Columbus - Senator Christopher Dodd has taken a large step forward tonight in his quest for the Democratic presidential nomination with a dominating victory in Ohio. While still well shy of the delegates needed for coronation, Dodd was the clear victor in the Buckeye state, and was helped significantly by the strong showing of second place finisher, Bill Richardson. Senator John Edwards, his progressive message evidently not resonating with Ohio's blue collar crowd, finished a distant third. Edwards will need to rebound pretty quickly if he is to keep pace with the Senator from Connecticut.

It was a bittersweet result for Governor Richardson, certainly more bitter than sweet. Again, Richardson charges to a strong second place finish when his campaign desperately needs a win. He will have one more chance today when polls close in Texas.

Democratic Delegates won in Ohio:
Dodd - 67
Richardson - 58
Edwards - 16

Delegate count overall:


Democratic - 2025 needed

Christopher Dodd - 777
John Edwards - 686
Bill Richardson - 626
Barack Obama - 304




Out of the Race

Hillary Clinton - 48
Joe Biden - 27
Mike Gravel - 18

[Jeff1787]

Hillary is out. Good deal, so sick of the Clinton machine!!

[bigMatt]

Texas will send a total of 228 delegates to the Democratic national convention.

126 of these delegates are assigned based on the primary, which is conducted today.

67 are assigned based on a caucus, which will conclude tomorrow.

The other 35 delegates remain unpledged, becoming superdelegates assigned at Convention time.

The Texas primary is currently underway. Results will be posted as they are received.

The results of the caucus is independent of the Primary, and will be posted separately.

[bigMatt]

I've taken a pretty long vacation in the middle of March 5. I apologize to those faithful citizens out there.


We'll be back to it before the week's over.

[bigMatt]

Austin - Christopher Dodd continues his March dominance with a solid win in today's Texas Democratic Primary. With his win, Dodd pulls even further ahead of the field in his quest for the Democratic nomination. Bill Richardson continued his pattern of second place finishes, impressive in their consistency, but doing little at this point to keep him in the race. Many expect Richardson to drop out within the next few weeks, as his campaign war chest approaches $0.

Senator John Edwards, disappointed with today's primary results, hopes to gain back some of the lost ground in the Texas caucus. To that end, his supporters are working tirelessly again tonight to get out the vote for their candidate.

Democratic Delegates won in Texas:
Dodd - 54
Richardson - 43
Edwards - 29

Delegate count overall:


Democratic - 2025 needed

Christopher Dodd - 831
John Edwards - 715
Bill Richardson - 669
Barack Obama - 304




Out of the Race

Hillary Clinton - 48
Joe Biden - 27
Mike Gravel - 18

[bigMatt]

Montpelier - John Edwards has emerged the winner of the Vermont primary. Edwards pulled out the victory by the narrowest of margins, edging out current Democratic frontrunner Christopher Dodd by a scant few thousand votes.

While it represents just a small difference in delegate count, the win is a much needed one for the Edwards campaign, ensuring that campaign finances will remain healthy for the near term.

Governor Bill Richardson did not campaign in Vermont due to financial constraints, and was a non-factor in the results.

Democratic Delegates won in Vermont:
Edwards - 8
Dodd - 7

Delegate count overall:


Democratic - 2025 needed

Christopher Dodd - 838
John Edwards - 723
Bill Richardson - 669
Barack Obama - 304




Out of the Race

Hillary Clinton - 48
Joe Biden - 27
Mike Gravel - 18

[bigMatt]

Austin - Largely due to the strength of his grassroots support, Senator John Edwards will win the Texas Caucus. Edwards, whose lackluster performance in yesterday's Texas primary left him trailing the field, closes the gap between himself and frontrunner, Senator Christopher Dodd, ever so slightly. Dodd, who finished a strong second in today's caucus, still holds a commanding lead over the field.

The campaigns next turn their attention to Wyoming's caucus this coming Saturday, followed by Mississippi and Pennsylvania. If Dodd can win the next three primaries, he will be the prohibitive favorite to win nomination. Edwards, despite a solid remaining campaign bankroll, needs to take either Mississippi or Pennsylvania to stay competitive in the delegate count. Richardson must squeak out a win within the next couple of primaries or his run will be over.


Democratic Delegates won in Texas Caucus:
Edwards - 31
Dodd - 24
Richardson - 12

Delegate count overall:


Democratic - 2025 needed

Christopher Dodd - 862
John Edwards - 754
Bill Richardson - 681
Barack Obama - 304




Out of the Race

Hillary Clinton - 48
Joe Biden - 27
Mike Gravel - 18

[bigMatt]

03/06/08

Springfield - Ending several weeks of speculation, Senator Barack Obama today announced that he will suspend his campaign until further notice.

Obama, speaking to a crowd in his home state of Illinois, told the disappointed throng that, while he is not quitting the race, he has put a halt to any plans for active campaigning for now. When pressed on the possibility of returning to the race, Obama indicated that, while not out of the question, it would be "unlikely."

Obama leaves the race with 304 delegates. He did not indicate any predilection toward any of the remaining candidates, declaring that he would prefer to "let the American people decide."

[CONN CHRIS]

Originally Posted by bigMatt

Texas will send a total of 228 delegates to the Democratic national convention.

126 of these delegates are assigned based on the primary, which is conducted today.

67 are assigned based on a caucus, which will conclude tomorrow.

The other 35 delegates remain unpledged, becoming superdelegates assigned at Convention time.

The Texas primary is currently underway. Results will be posted as they are received.

The results of the caucus is independent of the Primary, and will be posted separately.

If there were ever a reason to never let Texans run anything ever again (especialy Texan democrats) this would be it. Good grief.

[bigMatt]

Originally Posted by CONN CHRIS

If there were ever a reason to never let Texans run anything ever again (especialy Texan democrats) this would be it. Good grief.

No kidding huh? I never really understood how convoluted the entire process was until I started this Universe.

Right now Edwards is hoping for a skeleton to pop out of Dodd's closet, as it looks like the Connecticut Senator is on his way.