Lineup Selection; Traditional or Sabermetric?

[Empayes]

I'm starting a career as the GM of the Diamondbacks today. I always changed Lineup Selection to Sabermetric instead of Traditional, but never had more than a hunch of what this really meant. What I wanna ask you guys: Do any of you actually prefer to leave it on Traditional? (When simming the upcoming 30 years or so of MLB) If so, what would be the reasons to do so? Or is the difference rather negligible?

Cheers!

[SirMichaelJordan]

Sabermetric means lineups will be mainly based on a player's ratings vs Lefty/Righty while traditional pretty much just focus on the ratings you are presented with on the player's profile. A manager's preference will also play a role here.

A manager who prefer lefty/Righty splits will use splits more often if the setting was set to Saber rather than Traditional.

[ThatSeventiesGuy]

A bit of both. I'm big on splits and all, but if a guy's on a hot streak, I'll still probably put him in there.

[JCarter93]

Sabermetric actually depends on different stats and values on base percentage more than traditional. I always set my lineups manually using the following formula.

Use wOBA as your primary stat. This is OPS but the values of each batting outcome are weighted to better represent their statistical importance (i.e. walks are weighted below singles, etc.).

1. Top 3 hitter, best on base percentage, speed and base-stealing useful but not necessary.

2. Top 3 hitter, well-rounded (can get on base and slug as well).

3. Fifth-best hitter by wOBA. The 3 hole comes up with two out more often, making a base hit in this slot less valuable.

4. Top 3 hitter, best slugger.

5. Fourth best hitter, preferably a slugger.

6. Sixth best.

7. Seventh best.

8. Eighth best (pitcher if in the National League

9. 9th best, possibly a wannabe leadoff hitter.

Somewhere in the 6-9 slots I will pair a good base stealer followed by a good singles hitter.

[jpeters1734]

Originally Posted by JCarter93

Sabermetric actually depends on different stats and values on base percentage more than traditional. I always set my lineups manually using the following formula.

Use wOBA as your primary stat. This is OPS but the values of each batting outcome are weighted to better represent their statistical importance (i.e. walks are weighted below singles, etc.).

1. Top 3 hitter, best on base percentage, speed and base-stealing useful but not necessary.

2. Top 3 hitter, well-rounded (can get on base and slug as well).

3. Fifth-best hitter by wOBA. The 3 hole comes up with two out more often, making a base hit in this slot less valuable.

4. Top 3 hitter, best slugger.

5. Fourth best hitter, preferably a slugger.

6. Sixth best.

7. Seventh best.

8. Eighth best (pitcher if in the National League

9. 9th best, possibly a wannabe leadoff hitter.

Somewhere in the 6-9 slots I will pair a good base stealer followed by a good singles hitter.

very nice. I'd love to see more posts like this. I do struggle with optimizing my lineups. I'm curious about your 3 hole. 5th best hitter?

I would think putting a weaker hitter there would cause more double plays, thus negating the strategy.

I typically put my best contact/gap hitter 3rd and a speedster at 2nd. that way if my leadoff gets base and my 2 hits it on the ground, there's a less chance of a double play and will give a runner for my 3 guy.

[Reed]

I pretty much set my lineup like JCarter does. A few years ago when I played SOM I took an average team an let the AI set the line up and simmed 5 seasons and my ave wins was around 83. I then took the same team and reversed the line up (pitcher batting lead off, etc.) simmed 5 years and the ave. win total was 72. My take was that line ups is somewhat important but who is in your line up is a lot more important.

[OakDragon]

Originally Posted by JCarter93

3. Fifth-best hitter by wOBA. The 3 hole comes up with two out more often, making a base hit in this slot less valuable.

I'm not sure I get what you mean. I would think a base hit with two out would be more valuable. Now if you meant with nobody on more often, then I could see what you mean.

[nightfly]

Originally Posted by OakDragon

I'm not sure I get what you mean. I would think a base hit with two out would be more valuable. Now if you meant with nobody on more often, then I could see what you mean.

Exactly this. The theory is that putting your best hitter third (as is traditional) will result in a lot of at-bats with with nobody on and two out; putting him fourth means that his first at-bat will either come with men on base, or leading off the second inning. Paired with a strategy that puts high-OBP men in the lineup in front of him, this should optimize the number of times you get your best hitter chances to drive in runs.

With a good hitter behind him in the fifth spot, the opposition will have to worry about the negative consequences of walking the cleanup man.

Nothing's foolproof but it is an effective strategy, even if your high-OBP guys hitting first and second aren't really basestealers.

[OakDragon]

Originally Posted by nightfly

Exactly this. The theory is that putting your best hitter third (as is traditional) will result in a lot of at-bats with with nobody on and two out; putting him fourth means that his first at-bat will either come with men on base, or leading off the second inning. Paired with a strategy that puts high-OBP men in the lineup in front of him, this should optimize the number of times you get your best hitter chances to drive in runs.

With a good hitter behind him in the fifth spot, the opposition will have to worry about the negative consequences of walking the cleanup man.

Nothing's foolproof but it is an effective strategy, even if your high-OBP guys hitting first and second aren't really basestealers.

I meant alternatively.

Two out is when you need a hit most, because if you don't get a hit (or someone on base), the inning's over.

[Reed]

I don't want one of my best hitters coming to bat with no one on base with 2 outs and that could very well happen if I bat them 3rd in the lineup. If I bat them 1st, 2nd, 4th, or 5th; I can avoid that situation. After the 1st/2nd inning, the manager has little control of who bats in what situation (except for pinch hitters). At least that's what I read in a Bill James article several years ago but it probably makes very little difference really.

[NoOne]

don't worry about hte real life definition of either of these things - although it may help guess which one you want.


i'd suggest trying each, and having the manager set up your lineup. compare and choose the one you like better.

since this is league-wide, you may want to see how it influences other teams, or maybe you don't.

either way, go with the resulting lineup you like and not what the definition should or shouldn't be.


for what it's worth, not putting a reall good rbi guy in the 3rd slot is probably a bad idea.

rbi opportunities, which is different from merely the # of resulting RBI, is 2nd or 3rd highest at the 3 spot. roughly equal to the 5 spot. a 3rd hitter should be a bit more well-rounded than a 5 hitter. a better batter gets more ab the further up in the order they are. no reason to cut off 2-5% of production because you want them down a few spots.

if you are going to use one specific sitution like, 2 outs the first inning, it better be extremely overwhelming evidence for somethign that doesn't happen frequently. not only will it only happen ~40% of the time with 2 .350obp guys at the top, it is also only pertinent to the first inning of play, since it's pretty random who starts an inning leading off after that. this is also why it isn't such a bad idea to have some power batting lead off... they only bat leadoff once, gauranteed. there is no law preventing the bottom order guys from getting on for the leadoff guy.

hey i found the link that helps:

The Effect of Batting Order on R and RBI Production | Smart Fantasy Baseball

that's not the best info for what i am talking about in regard to RBI and batting order. this info is based on rbi per slot, not opportunities.

since better players are placed ahead of others, i apply a little subjective warping of that curve. i assume that 3-4-5 would be a bit lower if average players were typically used there.

so, the curve is similar but not as pronounced in my head.

another example and smaller data sample is found here :

RBI by batting order position » Baseball-Reference Blog » Blog Archive

you can see the additional volatility here comparingn league to individual teams in regard to rbi per plate appearance. this also shows that while you can set up an order for the most likely things to happen, but they doesn't mean that's the way they will play out for you.